Storm to slam Great Lakes region with feet of snow
An intense lake effect snow event was underway Friday, a storm expected to hammer parts of the Great Lakes region, including Upstate New York – plastering lakeside communities with up to 5 feet of snow. Thunder and lightning could accompany the heaviest snowfall, which might come down at rates of 4 inches per hour.
Lake effect snow warnings are in effect for areas along the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The greatest snow totals will occur around Watertown in New York’s Tug Hill Plateau, as well as between Erie, Pennsylvania, and Buffalo. Snowfall totals will vary wildly, from feet of accumulation to festive flakes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Winter Storm Severity Index, a four-tiered scale from minor to extreme, was indicating the potential for extreme impacts in western New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
In the extreme category, “substantial disruptions to daily life” are expected, as are extremely dangerous or impossible driving conditions, extensive and widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure. NOAA also warns of the potential need for lifesaving actions at this extreme level.
The extreme rating covered Ashtabula County, Ohio; Erie, Pennsylvania; the Southtowns region of Buffalo; as well as Watertown, New York; and the Tug Hill Plateau.
The National Weather Service warned during lake effect snow, weather can rapidly vary, with “bands of locally heavy snow with greatly reduced visibilities to dry conditions just a few miles away.”
“Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. Consider delaying travel,” the Weather Service office serving Buffalo warned. “If you must travel, drive with extreme caution. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination.”
Where to expect
Off Lake Erie, the Weather Service is forecasting 5 to 10 inches “in the heart of the band from the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county to northern Cattaraugus and southern Erie counties.” And that’s just during the daytime – those totals could triple, and then some, by the latter half of Sunday.
Conditions could be particularly iffy for Sunday’s Buffalo Bills game, which is slated for 8:20 p.m. The stadium is in Orchard Park, about 10 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo. The northern periphery of the Lake Erie snow band will meander near the stadium with a thin edge, making for an especially tricky forecast. Between 8 inches and a foot is likely there.
Off Lake Ontario, the bull’s eye is anticipated near the Watertown metro area, which will see up to 5 feet. In fact, the Weather Service has even outlined a high-end potential that could dump more than 70 inches.
Temperatures near freezing will also support heavy, pasty snow.
The long-duration snow event will last into early Monday before finally tapering down. Some communities will be buried and inaccessible until the midweek.
Conditions driving the intense snow
The environment is a classic one for driving heavy snow over the Great Lakes. A pocket of cold air, low pressure and spin is parking over southern Ontario, which will send a frigid wind blowing down the comparatively mild lakes. Air temperatures will hover around 30 to 35 degrees, but lake temperatures are between 47 and 50 degrees. The lake will heat air from below, with those air pockets rising into a chilly atmosphere.
Plumes of rising air will ascend to near 20,000 feet, producing heavy lake effect snow showers.
There have even been a few reports of graupel, or ice-coated snow pellets, within the Lake Ontario snow band south of Watertown in Henderson, New York. It’s easier for different electric charges to build within a cloud if different types of precipitation particles are present. The existence of snow crystals and ice pellets in the cloud is an indicator that thundersnow may soon occur.
The Weather Service storm prediction center highlighted the potential for “few lightning flashes … in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes.”