Will there be any more U.S. hurricanes this season? What to know.

It has been an exhausting hurricane season. Five hurricanes have hit the Gulf Coast – Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton – and two of them roared ashore at major hurricane strength. And there remain two more areas to watch in the Atlantic.

While hurricane season technically ends Nov. 30, millions of beleaguered Gulf Coast residents are wondering when they can finally let their guard down and begin their recovery from the trauma of the past few months before the next season begins. But the atmosphere doesn’t own a calendar, and there are signs that the 2024 season might have one last gasp of activity in late October or early November.

After that, it’s a game of running out the clock. The cooling ocean and strong upper-level winds will make it more difficult for named storms to form.

The season has fallen short of the “hyperactive” predicted by experts in the spring, but it has still been above average. ACE, or accumulated cyclone energy – a metric that quantifies how much energy a season’s storms expend on strong winds – is running 30% above average.

Could more major hurricanes form?

By mid-October, we’re usually on the solid downswing for major storms.

Only about 12% of a season’s activity has historically come after Friday’s date, so although we’re not entirely out of the woods statistically, we may be nearing the end.

According to records on the Atlantic dating to around 1850, there has never been a major landfalling U.S. hurricane from Nov. 1 onward.

As of now, the next 12 days don’t look to feature any chances of major landfalling U.S. storms.

Still, that doesn’t rule out non-major storms.

How common are late-season hurricanes?

The back half of October is a historically busy time, and there have been some notable late-October U.S. landfalls.

Just recently, in 2020, Zeta hit New Orleans as a Category 3 a few days before Halloween.

November hurricanes are comparatively rare. Across the entire basin, only about a quarter as many hurricanes have formed in November compared with October.

In the past 170 years, only two Category 2 hurricanes have hit the United States during November: Kate came ashore east of Panama City just before Thanksgiving in 1985, and a hurricane struck Miami on Nov. 4, 1935.

Otherwise, November storms have typically been minimal or low-end systems.

In 2022, for instance, Hurricane Nicole made landfall as a 75 mph Category 1 near Vero Beach, Florida, on the morning of Nov. 10.

Where do late-season storms form?

By this time of year, the Atlantic’s MDR, or Main Development Region – the zone between the Lesser Antilles and Africa known for cranking out most of the long-lived storms – starts to shut down.

Water temperatures are cooling with the waning daylight. And the jet stream – a river of fierce winds in the upper atmosphere – is sagging south over the Atlantic. The introduction of stronger winds aloft would tear apart fledgling storms.

Most late-October or November storms that do crop up come from the western Caribbean, where water temperatures are still exceptionally warm and high-altitude winds are weak. Central America and the Yucatán Peninsula generally have to watch out for those systems, but they rarely make it to the United States.

Still, once in a while, they do. And that is why we still have to remain on guard. And there are signs that the oceans could yet have one final show

Will there be a final burst of activity?

Late in the month, something called a convectively coupled Kelvin wave will move over the Atlantic. It sounds like a mouthful, but here’s what to know: Picture a big overturning circulation that meanders the global tropics, akin to a wave in the atmosphere. When the upward-moving branch of the wave passes overhead, the air rises. And that makes it easier for storms to form.

With that subtle encouragement, there’s a chance the Atlantic might generate one or two more named storms late in October or early November. That is when a Kelvin wave will move overhead.

From about Oct. 28 through Nov. 10, we will still have to watch for a last pulse of activity. (That’s especially true considering the oceans are still warm, more reminiscent of late September or early October.)

When can we relax?

We may have to wait until mid-November to exhale. That’s around the time we can probably, at least in the United States, start to close the book on the 2024 hurricane season.

Then it’s only 6½ months until the start of the next one.