New Seahawks offense has the skills if it can keep the line healthy, effective

SEATTLE – A few months after his hiring as the Seattle Seahawks’ new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb issued one warning – don’t expect to see a carbon copy of the offense he ran at the University of Washington the past two years.

“I think for us, we’re trying to meld some things together with some of the things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years, and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physical dominant team (and) at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to,” Grubb said.

That strategy seemed to fit right in line with how new coach Mike Macdonald said he envisions his offense on the day he was named as Pete Carroll’s successor.

As a coach groomed on the defensive side of the ball, Macdonald acknowledges he’d like to see an offense that complements the defense.

“The percentage of when you run the ball and how much, that’s all adjustable,” Macdonald said. “To me, it’s going to mirror our football team. We’re going to be a physical football team. We’re going to have answers. We’re going to try to be explosive and really build it around the players that we have.”

While the phrase “pass-happy” often accompanies Grubb’s name, consider these two teams:

Team A: 411 runs in 2023, 574 passes, a 58.2% pass-to-run rate.

Team B: 382 runs, 575 passes, a 61.6% pass-to-run rate.

Team A is the UW team whose offense Grubb called the plays for last year. Team B is the Seahawks squad overseen by Pete Carroll, whose reputation was for favoring an offense led by the run.

In fact, the Seahawks’ pass-run rate was the fifth highest in the NFL last season.

So the idea that Grubb coming in and Carroll going out means a ton more passes may be mistaken.

As Grubb led UW to scoring 36 points per game last season, 13th out of 133 teams in NCAA Division I, he became known for mixing in ample doses of presnap motion, designed to try to confuse opponents and create one-on-one matchups

The Seahawks last year ranked 17th in the NFL in using motion on offense at 43%, according to The FTN Football Almanac 2024.

That could rise with Grubb.

Like Macdonald’s defense, Grubb’s goal – through not just motion but formation – is to make it as difficult as possible for the defense to figure out where the ball is going.

“We want to make every guy on the field, all five of them, as dangerous as possible from any position on the field,” Grubb said.

NFL lore is littered with stories of coordinators whose offenses ran roughshod in college but struggled at the game’s highest level – Chip Kelly’s flameout, to name one recent example.

Players still tend to matter as much or more.

The good news there is Grubb has plenty with which to work.

True, the Seahawks fell to 17th in points scored last season.

But they ranked 10th or better in points scored eight of the past 12 years, including ninth in 2022, indicating that things have hardly been a disaster on offense.

A big reason for last year’s fade was a banged-up and inconsistent offensive line that cycled through eight starting alignments and at midseason was forced to call 41-year-old Jason Peters out of retirement to start two games at right tackle.

The August signing of Connor Williams at center should eventually solidify the interior of the line, and a healthy season out of left tackle Charles Cross and bringing in George Fant as insurance at right tackle could mean consistent play on the edges.

There’s no questioning the skill players.

Geno Smith enters his third season as the starting quarterback and is probably more appreciated by those outside of Seattle than in it.

While his raw stats were down last year, most of the analytic numbers that took into account a tougher schedule and the injuries on the line were basically the same, with a few a little better.

Smith’s Pro Football Focus grade in 2023 was 3.1 points better than a year ago with his passing grade the best of his career.

“Geno was particularly efficient on early downs, where he earned an 88.3 PFF grade, which placed him in the 95th percentile among passers,” wrote PFF.

The issue was a few too many third-and-longs for Smith and the offense as a whole – the Seahawks converted just over 36% of third downs in 2023, 23rd best in the NFL.

At receiver, the Seahawks hope Jaxon Smith-Njigba builds off what was a statistically decent rookie season (his 63 receptions were the second most by a rookie in team history) to turn into more of a big-play maker (he also averaged just 10 yards per reception).

The assumption is Grubb will figure out how to get Smith-Njigba involved more down the field. Smith-Njigba being healthy for the entire offseason program and training camp, compared to the injuries he dealt with in 2023, should help.

If DK Metcalf turns in the same kind of season as he has in his first five and Tyler Lockett can stave off age (he turns 32 in this month), the Seahawks could have one of the better receiving trios in the NFL.

Tight end Noah Fant also figures to approach the 65-catch average he had in his past two years in Denver more than the 41 he has in two years in Seattle now that he is the unquestioned No. 1 at his position.

In the backfield, Kenneth Walker III returns for his third season, having rushed for 1,955 yards in 30 games his first two and is motivated to try to get a big contract heading into 2025.

“When you talk about some of the run/pass balance, you have backs like nine (Walker) and Zach (Charbonnet), you’re pretty excited about your ability to run the ball,” Grubb said in the spring.

It will be up to Grubb to put it all together in a package he said will inevitably have some similarities to what he’s done in the past but with some new wrinkles.

“I think that that grows and evolves every year, right?” Grubb said in the spring. “And you base some of that on the talent that you have and the guys that you have here. And so for us, we’re trying to make sure that we find every way to utilize those things.”