West Seattle’s light rail estimate soars past $6 billion

SEATTLE – Runaway construction inflation, more engineering study and the tremendous size of a Duwamish River train bridge have driven the price tag for West Seattle light rail to somewhere between $6.7 billion and $7.1 billion, far beyond what is affordable in Sound Transit’s current financial plan.

The regional agency’s leaders insist the numbers are no reason for panic, but a good reason to forge ahead, look for income and cost savings, and keep working toward a proposed grand opening in 2032.

“The numbers are upsetting to all board members, especially me,” said transit board chair Dow Constantine, a lifelong West Seattle resident. “I am very anxious to leave all of this planning behind,” and finish the design to learn the real costs, he said.

“The worst thing we could do right now is be paralyzed and slow the project. Delay decreases the benefit and increases the cost,” said Constantine, who is King County executive.

Threading a needle in West Seattle

Sound Transit’s cost estimate to build from Sodo to Alaska Junction has soared to between $6.7 billion and $7.1 billion, without a plan to cover this inflation.

At this point, it’s unclear where or how Sound Transit can close this funding gap, among the toughest challenges since its founding in the 1990s.

The soaring estimates were revealed by Terri Mestas, deputy CEO in charge of megaproject delivery, during an interview Tuesday. They come after last week’s environmental impact statement that predicted $5.1 billion to $5.6 billion, in 2024 dollars, to build the river bridge, a short tunnel atop the West Seattle peninsula, a larger Sodo Station and new train stops at Delridge, Avalon and Alaska Junction. This line and another to Ballard are among a dozen or so rail corridors voters approved in the ST3 tax measure of 2016, across three counties.

Mestas said that while past figures were based on the unit costs to build a certain distance of trackways or stations, the new estimates reflect “bottom-up” cost calculations that literally go deeper, such as how much concrete or steel it takes to anchor a 150-foot-high train bridge over the river. Design is about 30% completed, she said.

The figures are so dire that authors of the environmental impact statement repeatedly bring up a “minimum operable segment” – a starter line only from Sodo to Delridge to reduce initial cost by half.

Sound Transit isn’t seriously considering such a cutback, and says drastic reductions are premature. A minimum segment is something the Federal Transit Administration has to mention in such studies, CEO Goran Sparrman said, to conceivably approve and fund later. That’s happened before, when the FTA provided $500 million for an initial line between downtown and Tukwila in the 2000s.

This news of skyrocketing costs comes on the heels of Sound Transit’s jubilation over opening a $3 billion extension from Northgate to Lynnwood, when 39,000 people boarded trains in the four new stations opening day, Aug. 30. Ridership is steadily growing to near 80,000 a day overall, topping 100,000 for certain big-event days.

Estimated ridership in West Seattle is 26,000 daily passengers, plus more in Sodo as regional connections there increase. Actual use could be higher if housing massively increases, or lower if growth or transit reliability are weak. On the other side of town, power-supply problems caused significant train delays Tuesday in North Seattle, after a full blockage there for several hours last month.

Rethink the Link, a neighborhood coalition opposing the West Seattle project, glommed onto recent higher numbers, to amplify its worries about business displacements, as well as a path grazing Pigeon Point that would defoliate heron habitat.

King County Metro should be asked if it “could use $5 billion better than building 4 miles of track and one station,” argues coalition organizer Marilyn Kennell, whose neighbors’ homes would be condemned. “One example: $5 billion could buy 5,000 electric buses.”

Work continues on a Ballard-to-Sodo corridor, estimated at $11 billion, and aimed to open in the late 2030s.

Sound Transit might bump against legal debt limits, said Charles Prestrud, transportation analyst for the free-market Washington Policy Center. “None of the usual tricks (pushing out construction, deferring stations, etc) solve the fundamental problem that the light rail extensions are prohibitively costly and don’t really add many new riders,” he said in an email Tuesday.

The increase in the estimate for West Seattle, by itself, would cover most costs to elevate the 1 Line’s Rainier Valley surface tracks, a concept leaders aren’t seriously considering, citing cost and construction impacts.

A tough road ahead

The 18-member governing board will be briefed about West Seattle issues in public session Sept. 26, but Mestas said a specific menu of decisions will be a long way off. Board members have individually been notifiedof the new near-$7 billion estimates, a spokesperson said, but such numbers haven’t been shared publicly.

The entire process from here to a final design and contracts would last 12 to 18 months, CEO Sparrman said last week.

The environmental statement repeatedly describes the starter line from Sodo to Delridge as affordable, $2.9 billion to $3.75 billion for 1.9 miles.

The option of scrapping Avalon Station to save money is also mentioned, despite a past board vote to keep Avalon as its preferred option. Constantine said Tuesday he considers Avalon a prime location for more transit-related housing.

Claudia Balducci, who chairs the board’s System Expansion Committee, said that as she approaches tough decisions, a drastic shortening isn’t on her mind.

“I would rather do everything I can to deliver the full segment that we promised,” she said, while Constantine pointed to polls and past elections that indicate 70% support or higher for light rail in West Seattle.

Highway projects are suffering from similar inflation, without canceling new roads. The prime example is the Highway 520 replacement, trending toward $5.5 billion or higher over three decades, at least $1 billion beyond earlier plans, with sources still unclear for the last phase crossing Portage Bay.

Mestas, who joined Sound Transit this year for a $600,000 salary after leading the expansion of the Los Angeles International Airport, said her team still has “a long runway” to cope with West Seattle costs.

She’s exploring ways to make contracts more competitive, attacking a reported 15% informal premium that companies say they’ve added for dealing with red tape at Sound Transit. Tactics include breaking the corridor into many parts, such as some builders making stations and others the guideway or tunnel.

Last week, an advisory panel of outside experts gave high marks for a management reorganization, and said Sound Transit has the best talent available.

Mestas points to a difficult construction environment, such as high costs of concrete and a labor shortage. Only 10 companies in the Northwest are prime contractors for big transportation projects and two can tackle jobs of $1 billion or more, noted Mestas. Federal data showed a 50% inflation rate in the early 2020s.

A report on new financing ideas is due in coming months. Sound Transit’s annual budget is $3 billion, with total spending of $148 billion from 2017 to 2046. The agency has legal power to issue bond debt in perpetuity to build voter-approved lines, and is likely to pay into the 2060s. But mathematically, there are limits to what can be spent, and still keep a top credit rating.

Sound Transit’s strong revenue stream, and FTA support totaling up to $9 billion over the years, are two reasons Sparrman said the current funding gap should be solvable. Sparrman insists the problem is less severe than in 2000, when high bids and bad soils forced the agency to cancel a tunnel under Portage Bay, leading to years of delays building initial lines.