Making AL MVP case for Mariners’ Cal Raleigh with Aaron Judge out
SEATTLE – The door is slightly ajar. Will Cal Raleigh shove it open?
With New York Yankees star Aaron Judge on the injured list because of an elbow injury and expected to be only a designated hitter initially when he returns, the opportunity is there in the final two months of the regular season for the Mariners catcher to take over as the MVP favorite in the American League.
It’s not something for Raleigh to discuss now. He’s too team-oriented and focused, especially with the Mariners wedged in the middle of a crowded playoff race. But it’s clear that the better he plays, the better the chances that both goals are accomplished – team success and personal accolades.
“In addition to being our platinum glove catcher and kind of burgeoning team leader and potential American League MVP, he’s kind of like an assistant GM as well,” M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said Thursday.
Just under two months remain in the regular season. The Mariners had 52 games left after Thursday’s 6-0 win over the Rangers. And Raleigh’s MVP case can be bolstered by maintaining some of the numbers he’s achieved and by reaching a handful of benchmarks based on numbers posted by previous AL MVPs. Twenty-five of the past 26 AL MVPs have been position players.
Winning an MVP award would be meaningful now and could be significant later. Would there have been less debate around Edgar Martinez’s eventual Hall of Fame election if he had been the 1995 AL MVP instead of finishing third? Would we view the Hall of Fame candidacy of Félix Hernández differently if he had two AL Cy Young awards instead of one?
Judge is likely still considered the favorite by most people based on his body of work this season and because he plays in New York. But there are marks Raleigh could reach that would make it interesting.
Keep mashing
It goes without saying that everyone loves homers. Baseball die-hards. Casual fans. Adults. Kids. Babies. Dogs. Cats.
Everybody digs the long ball.
In the past 20 years, six MVPs across both leagues hit at least 50 homers in a season. But only one of those six – Giancarlo Stanton with Miami in 2017 – hit below .300. That might become a conundrum for voters if Raleigh’s average continues to dip as it has over the past month. It was one thing when he was hitting .281 on June 24. It’s another when he’s at .257 entering Friday after batting .194 in July.
Most baseball observers are smart enough to know average isn’t as important as it once was considered. But it’s still a factor. The best way for Raleigh to offset a lower average would be to finish with around 55 homers. Breaking Mickey Mantle’s record for most homers in a season by a switch-hitter (54) would be an accomplishment even those in New York would have to respect.
You down with OPS?
OK, so we know Raleigh’s batting average is not going to be among the elite. But another number that includes decimals could be as important.
Raleigh has an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages) that’s hovering around 1.000. It’s been slightly above or slightly below since the end of May. Entering Friday’s games it was slightly below (.975) thanks in part to his slump at the plate.
If Raleigh can keep his OPS above .950, he’ll have a chance. Of the past 25 AL MVPs, only seven ended the season with an OPS below .950. The lowest OPS for an MVP during that span was the last Mariner to win the award – Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 when his OPS was .838.
If there’s a good comparison for Raleigh, it might be the 1999 MVP. Iván Rodríguez is one of two primary catchers to win the award during that time frame. In 1999, Rodríguez hit .332 with 35 homers and 113 RBIs and an OPS of .913, although pitching is arguably better now and Raleigh’s slugging is superior.
Maybe we should talk about wRC+
The best way to analyze offensive impact now is wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) because it considers park factors – where you play – and the run-scoring environment in baseball at that time. It’s as close to a comparable offensive metric across different eras of the game as there is.
In that regard, Raleigh is well-positioned. Again, when comparing previous AL MVPs, Judge is an outlier. He posted a 219 wRC+ last season and 206 in 2022, the only seasons above 200 for an MVP.
Raleigh was at 167 entering Friday, which would put him in line with Mike Trout in 2019 (177) and 2016 (170), Josh Hamilton in 2010 (175) and, maybe most important, Joe Mauer in 2009 (170). Mauer was the last catcher to win AL MVP.
WAR, what’s it good for?
WAR (wins above replacement) also is a highly accepted metric that helps Raleigh because it considers some of his catching. Whether it’s Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) or FanGraphs WAR (fWAR), both are effective analytic measurements for comparing value.
In that sense, finishing with at least an 8.0 bWAR would be critical. Take away the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, all but one AL MVP since 2016 has posted a bWAR of at least 8.0. And the one that didn’t was Trout in 2019 when he finished with a 7.9 bWAR.
FanGraphs’ WAR is a little more volatile, but generally anything over 8.0 will have Raleigh heavily in the conversation.
Raleigh was at 5.3 bWAR and 6.4 fWAR entering Friday. There’s some work to do there.
The toughest position on the field
Analyzing defensive influence among catchers is really difficult. Throwing is important. Framing is important. But throwing numbers can be affected by pitchers who fail to hold runners on base, and framing is widely subjective depending on how the strike zone is viewed.
That said, Raleigh is considered one of the best in baseball at framing. He’s tied for 10th among all catchers in “catcher framing runs,” according to MLB Statcast data. Last year he ranked second in the league.
Raleigh’s caught stealing percentage is up slightly per Statcast from 26% to 30% this season.
Catchers’ value sometimes comes down to perception. How well do they command pitchers? How durable are they? How are they respected among their peers? From that sense, Raleigh is in an elite class. It could be an intangible that makes a difference when voters cast their ballots in late September.
New blood
There’s also this: Since 2012, only eight players have won the AL MVP award. Trout owns three. Judge and Shohei Ohtani combined to win the past four. Miguel Cabrera won in 2012 and 2013. The outliers were Josh Donaldson (2015), Jose Altuve (2017) and José Abreu (2020).
If Raleigh can keep up this pace, he becomes the perfect counter for voters looking for someone not named Judge or Ohtani.
Make the playoffs
Not surprisingly, individual success usually begets team success.
Since 2000, only four AL MVPs failed to make the playoffs in the year they won the award. You’ll be shocked to learn that all four were Los Angeles Angels – Ohtani in 2021 and 2023; Trout in 2016 and 2019.
The M’s making the postseason with Raleigh the Home Run Derby champion, the starting catcher in the All-Star Game, the face of the franchise and carrying the best nickname is baseball (the Big Dumper) might be the final bullet point on the resume that gives him the best chance at being the M’s first MVP since Ichiro in 2001.