Big Ten forecast: Penn State, Ohio State on top as West Coast schools seek better showings

Last week, the Hotline programmed its supercomputer to run 10,000 simulations of the Big Ten race, with the latest starting quarterback announcements and injury news taken into account. The laborious process was designed to generate the most accurate projections possible and offer insight found nowhere else in the college football media space.

Just kidding. There is no supercomputer. But the Hotline does have a bucket hat, from which we drew 18 names.

Because with so many teams playing nine games and missing eight opponents, with the new quarterbacks and overhauled offensive lines, with the coaching changes and coordinator changes – well, drawing names just might be as accurate as 10,000 simulations.

And it allowed us to avoid ties.

The Hotline hates ties, but there will be ties in the massive conference. Many, many ties.

Last season, there were three two-team ties, one three-team tie and one four-team tie. All in all, 72% of the teams were involved in ties.

There’s no reason to expect anything different this season. You just won’t find any ties in the projections below.

Here we go.

1. Penn State: Our pick to win the conference and reach the national championship has a veteran quarterback (Drew Allar), the best tailback tandem in the country, stellar lines of scrimmage and an upgraded collection of wideouts. Also, the road schedule is manageable and the usual roadblocks, Michigan and Ohio State, have rookie quarterbacks. Put another way: This is Penn State’s best chance to win the conference in eons. Coach James Franklin has no excuses.

2. Ohio State: The Buckeyes don’t typically begin the season with more questions than answers, but that’s precisely the case this month: Will the afterglow of the national title undermine their motivation? Is new quarterback Julian Sayin up to the task? Will the loss of both coordinators from the title run affect preparation and playcalling? How quickly will the overhauled defense coalesce? The Buckeyes could win the Big Ten or finish fifth. We have no idea.

3. Oregon: Expectations aren’t as high for the Ducks as they were in 2024, which should help ease the pressure on new quarterback Dante Moore. (He hasn’t been named the starter, but we’re assuming Moore beats out Austin Novosad.) Also, the Ducks miss Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois, and the only assignment that looks truly daunting is the late-September trip to Penn State. All in all, Oregon should remain on the top tier of the conference and qualify for the CFP. Anything less and the season will be viewed as a disappointment.

4. Illinois: Labeling the Illini as the breakout team of the Big Ten this year – the 2025 version of Indiana – ignores the fact that they won 10 games last season and have a quarterback (Luke Altmyer) with a polished resume. Also, there are returning starters on every unit, and the schedule features a conspicuous absence of juggernauts (no Penn State, Oregon or Michigan). Those are all reasons to believe Illinois should contend until the very end.

5. Nebraska: What offensive coordinator Chip Kelly did for Ohio State last season, Dana Holgorsen, the former West Virginia and Houston head coach, could do for the Cornhuskers, sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola and the veteran offensive line. Nebraska hasn’t won more than seven games since the 2016 season – think about that for a minute – and if the mediocrity continues, the heat will soar under coach Matt Rhule’s seat.

6. Michigan: If the Wolverines intended to use the NCAA sanctions in the sign-stealing scandal as a means of deflecting attention away from freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, they accomplished the goal (at least for a few days). The offense should be noticeably improved – it certainly can’t get worse – but the defense could regress after losing so many starters to the NFL draft. The end result in Ann Arbor: another middle-tier finish.

7. Washington: Looking for a sleeper? The Huskies fit the model. Coach Jedd Fisch’s system has taken hold, the lines have been upgraded, and he has arguably the best combination of quarterback, tailback and receiver in the conference with Demond Williams Jr., Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston, respectively. However, the Huskies play Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Oregon, so their record might not fully reflect the year-over-year improvement.

8. USC: The depth chart suggests an upward trajectory in a crucial season for Lincoln Riley, but those pesky questions linger: Will the Trojans play sound, physical defense on a weekly basis? Will they run the ball successfully in short-yardage situations? Can they hold a fourth-quarter lead? Will Riley offer excuses, not solutions? They should be undefeated through four games, including Clay Helton’s return to the Coliseum (with Georgia Southern). But then the schedule turns stout.

9. Michigan State: Coach Jonathan Smith’s track record suggests a year-over-year improvement is more likely than not, especially if quarterback Aidan Chiles matures into an elite playmaker. (Oregon State improved by three victories in Smith’s second season leading the Beavers.) But we see a limited ceiling for the Spartans – both this season and in future years.

10. Iowa: Don’t be surprised if Mark Gronowski, a South Dakota State transfer, emerges as one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. If the Hawkeyes play their standard brand of defense under coordinator Phil Parker, they could finish far closer to the top of the conference than the bottom – and this projection could look downright foolish.

11. Indiana: The Hoosiers’ laughable non-conference schedule will provide early momentum, but we expect that to fizzle once Big Ten play begins. Much depends on quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Cal transfer, adjusting to stouter defenses than he faced in the ACC. Also, the Hoosiers will take everyone’s best shot in Year 2 of the Curt Cignetti era. That could cost them a few wins.

12. Wisconsin: If Luke Fickell doesn’t have the hottest seat in the conference, he’s on the short list of contenders. (Two substandard seasons will do that.) Year 3 hinges on the play of quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who arrives from Maryland, and new playcaller Jeff Grimes. But the Badgers have perhaps the toughest schedule in the country (Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan), which could impede progress.

13. UCLA: Despite the arrival of quarterback Nico Iamaleava (from Tennessee), a hefty dose of skepticism seems warranted when it comes to the offensive and defensive lines and, therefore, to UCLA’s success in the rugged conference. Those lines will be tested in the opener against Utah and then, in particular, by a brutal November schedule. If second-year coach DeShaun Foster doesn’t generate a morsel of momentum in 2025, it might never materialize.

14. Minnesota: Few coaches in the country maximize their personnel better on an annual basis than PJ Fleck, who consistently wins eight or nine games for a program that has little reason to expect more than six or seven. The challenge is next-level this fall, however, with a rookie quarterback (Drake Lindsey) and a handful of daunting road games.

15. Rutgers: We suspect the Scarlet Knights will be competitive on a weekly basis and produce an upset or two, thanks to Greg Schiano’s quality coaching and the presence of veteran quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. But they drew a brutal schedule that includes Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon. Good luck with that.

16. Northwestern: Tough to make the case for the Wildcats to jump into the muddled mass of mediocrity in the middle of the conference. Except for the defensive line, they lack the personnel to compete with most teams on the schedule. And yes, that includes the quarterback position: We are not convinced SMU transfer Preston Stone will elevate the offense.

17. Purdue: Fresh off his first-rate work reviving the UNLV program, first-year coach Barry Odom has more than 50 transfers in West Lafayette and could make major strides quickly. That explains our decision to not slot the Boilermakers into last place. Heck, they might even finish 16th.

18. Maryland: If the Terps don’t materially improve following last year’s 1-8 mark in conference play, coach Mike Locksley’s situation could turn fraught. The quarterback options are heralded recruit Malik Washington or UCLA transfer Justyn Martin. Either way, the climb is steep for a program that has lost momentum.