Pac-12 (2.0) power rankings: QB play could dictate WSU’s place in our real look at a fake race

Predicting the order-of-finish for a conference that doesn’t exist is precisely the content you didn’t know you needed.

Welcome to our assessment of Pac-12 teams this season based on the membership structure for next fall – a structure could change again if another member is added – to give the conference nine football schools for ‘26. But for now, here we go:

1. Boise State: The only Group of Five team to crack the AP preseason Top 25 is loaded on the lines of scrimmage and at every level on defense. But another College Football Playoff appearance hinges on quarterback Maddux Madsen’s efficiency as the focal point of the offense in the post-Ashton Jeanty era. (The Broncos plan to replace Jeanty with a combination of tailbacks, including freshman Sire Gaines.) There’s even a version of the Oregon game that offered so much resume rocket fuel last year, except it comes in the middle of the season: An Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame.

2. Oregon State: After a challenging Year 1 for coach Trent Bray – the Beavers started 4-1, then lost six of seven – there is reason for optimism in Corvallis. Quarterback Maalik Murphy, a former blue chip recruit who spent two years at Texas and started 12 games for Duke last season, offers OSU a path back to the postseason. The supporting personnel is solid, and the schedule features plenty of winnable games, especially in the stretch run. If the Beavers aren’t bowl eligible, something will have gone very wrong.

3. Texas State: The Bobcats have won eight games in each of coach G.J. Kinne’s two seasons, but will be hard pressed to replicate the success this fall considering the attrition and schedule. They play Arizona State, UTSA, Marshall, and Louisiana on the road with a yet-to-be-named starting quarterback and rebuilt lines of scrimmage. That said, we don’t envision a regression to the pre-Kinne era. Look for the victory total to move in lockstep with the speed the Bobcats assimilate their newcomers.

4. San Diego State: Our most sunny forecast for a team that went 3-9 in the first season under Sean Lewis is based, in part, on his prior performance in this very situation. Lewis was 2-10 in his rookie year at Kent State (2018) but led the Golden Flashes to seven wins and a bowl berth in Year 2. Whatever success SDSU experiences this fall likely will start with a defense that’s well stocked across the back seven. Not to be overlooked: The toughest Mountain West games are at home.

5. Colorado State: If wins correlated directly to quarterback experience, the Rams would be several spots higher. Junior Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has thrown 887 passes (and 37 touchdowns) over two seasons as the starter in Fort Collins, but the lack of playmaking talent at running back and receiver are significant obstacles. So, too, is the overhauled defense. Then again, Jay Norvell stands as one of the most underrated coaches in the western half of the country. An upside surprise should not, in fact, be a surprise.

6. Washington State: The pessimism expressed on the Hotline over Oregon State at this point last season has shifted to the Cougars, who are rebuilding in the post-Jake Dickert era in much the same way the Beavers picked up the pieces following Jonathan Smith’s departure. So much hinges on the quarterback play, and so little is known about the quarterbacks – we’re presuming Zevi Eckhaus wins the job – that a somewhat bleak outlook seems like the most prudent approach. Although WSU fans should keep in mind that Hotline predictions are, alas, frequently wrong.

7. Fresno State: We gave serious consideration to slotting the Bulldogs in the middle of the Pac-12 2.0 power rankings but opted against because of a brutal schedule that includes trips to Kansas, Oregon State, Colorado State, Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State. If first-year coach Matt Entz, who won FCS championships at North Dakota State, manages to lead Fresno State into the postseason, he will have worked wonders in The Valley.

8. Utah State: The Aggies made a stellar hire in December when they poached Bronco Mendenhall from New Mexico and charged the veteran with turning around a program that won 11 games a few years ago but was consumed by the Blake Anderson controversy. Mendenhall’s rebuilding project will take longer than a single offseason to complete – it could take three offseasons – but the return of QB Bryson Barnes creates the potential for a modest upturn this fall.