College Football Playoff picks against the spread for all four quarterfinals
The first round of the College Football Playoff had two blowouts, as expected, and a pair of low-scoring games (referring to a 10-3 game as low-scoring is being kind). Will the quarterfinals serve up any classics?
Three of the four quarterfinals feature a spread of around a touchdown or more. That’s not nearly as bad as the three-score spreads for Oregon-James Madison and Ole Miss-Tulane, but does leave the door open for games that could lack some drama.
Is that how it will play out though? The Athletic staff made picks against the spread for all four quarterfinals and the picks were mostly split.
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami
Points were hard to come by in the last game for each of these teams. That’s why the listed point total is the lowest of the four quarterfinals.
Ohio State suffered through a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game. Last year, the Buckeyes got hot in the playoff and won the national title after losing to Michigan 13-10 in the regular-season finale. Will OSU respond similarly this season?
Miami won its low-scoring game at Texas A&M in the first round of the CFP, although high winds were partially to blame for the lack of offense in Miami’s 10-3 victory.
Both teams have game-wrecking defensive lines loaded with first-round talent. OSU’s Arvell Reese and Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. both are in the top half of the first round in Nick Baumgardner’s fresh mock draft. OSU also has defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, wide receiver Carnell Tate and defensive back Caleb Downs in the top 16 picks. Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa slotted at pick No. 15. That doesn’t even mention Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State’s stud sophomore wide receiver who will almost certainly be taken early in the draft in 2027, or Miami’s freshman All-American wide receiver Malachi Toney.
There’s talent all over the field, as you would expect when Ohio State and Miami meet.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck could be the wild card in this game. Beck passed for just 103 yards against A&M, and multi-interception games were crucial in losses to Louisville and SMU. Beck won’t have an easy time putting up numbers against this Ohio State defense that leads the country in points allowed per game, but Miami will need him to make more big plays.
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon
This is the only quarterfinal to have a close spread. It’s also the only one to place the top-four seed as the underdog. Oregon is a small favorite against Texas Tech.
Last year, the Ducks were one of four teams that received byes in the first round to lose in a quarterfinal. This time, the Ducks are coming off a convincing win in the first round and take on a Texas Tech team that hasn’t played in nearly four weeks.
The Red Raiders blew through the Big 12 with one defeat and no other games decided by fewer than 22 points. Tech lost the only close game it played this season, a 26-22 loss at Arizona State. A dominant defense that has allowed 10 points just once in its last six games will be a tough test for an Oregon offense that has dealt with injuries throughout the season, especially at wide receiver.
The Ducks have won seven in a row since a home loss to Indiana in October. In four of those seven games, Oregon topped 40 points. Oregon’s last five games came against teams with winning records, so this Ducks team has been tested, at least more than it was in the first two months of the season.
The underlying narrative is how well Tech will represent the Big 12 against a Big Ten power. The Red Raiders didn’t play any power-conference teams outside of the Big 12, so even though they passed the eye test by dominating the league, there will still be questions about how good this team is. They can answer those questions in the Orange Bowl.
No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama
Indiana being in the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champion and No. 1 team in the country is sign enough that we’re living in college football bizarro world. That the Hoosiers are also 7-point favorites against Alabama puts it over the top.
The Hoosiers are the only undefeated team remaining in college football and are coming off a win against Ohio State. After beating the Buckeyes, one of the top programs in college football for the past couple of decades, IU now faces the most successful program in college football for the past couple of decades.
Alabama has looked shaky in the second half of the season. The Crimson Tide struggled with South Carolina, lost to Oklahoma at home, went down to the wire with rival Auburn, got blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game and fell down 17-0 to Oklahoma in the first round of the playoff. However, Alabama is still standing among the final eight and, for all its flaws, does have a talented roster that can trouble Indiana.
IU’s defense played the starring role in the 13-10 win against Ohio State. Will the Hoosiers’ pass rush get to Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson the way Georgia’s did in the SEC title game? Bama, which has struggled to run the ball in recent weeks, will need to protect its quarterback better in order to win.
In a rare twist for the Rose Bowl, the forecast is showing a high chance of rain. It’s hard to say if that favors one team over the other. Both teams lean on their passing game with Simpson and Indiana’s Heisman-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Ole Miss got a rematch in the first round against Tulane. That one played out similarly to the first edition. Now the Rebels get another rematch, this time against Georgia.
The Bulldogs won 43-35 in a home game and will try to replicate that performance in the Sugar Bowl. However, it wasn’t a straightforward win. Ole Miss had four different leads, including a 35-26 lead at the start of the fourth quarter. Georgia scored on all three of its fourth-quarter possessions, and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was 1-of-10 passing in the fourth.
While plenty of focus will be on how Ole Miss’ offense looks against quality opposition without Lane Kiffin at the helm, the Rebels’ defense got shelled for 510 yards of total offense against Georgia. Can new coach Pete Golding, who was the team’s defensive coordinator before replacing Kiffin, make the needed adjustments on that side of the ball?
That was Ole Miss’ only loss this season. Georgia hasn’t lost since a 3-point home defeat to Alabama in September.
Ole Miss beat Georgia last season, but is just 2-12 against the Bulldogs in the last 14 meetings.