Trump wants Greenland and Gaza. That might embolden China on Taiwan.

TAIPEI, Taiwan – President Donald Trump has spent his first few weeks in the White House talking about land deals like the real estate developer he once was.

He has threatened to annex Greenland – refusing to rule out military force to do so – and has suggested using “economic force” to make Canada the 51st American state. He has repeatedly talked about taking over the Gaza Strip – referring to the area as the “Riviera of the Middle East” – and his envoys are trying to broker a deal with Russia that could cost Ukraine some of its land.

This transactional approach is unnerving many in Taiwan, who fear it will embolden Chinese leader Xi Jinping to press ahead with his plans for “reunification” with Taiwan, an island democracy of 23 million people that has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party.

Some fear Trump and Xi might even use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in a trade deal.

“Trump’s rhetoric is doing China’s work for it in Taiwan,” said Ryan Hass, a China and Taiwan expert at the Brookings Institution and a former national security official in the Obama administration.

“With each statement by Trump that degrades the principle that territorial boundaries must not be redrawn by force or coercion, propagandists in Beijing likely are giving each other high-fives,” Hass said.

Xi, the strongest Chinese leader in decades, has made “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” one of his top priorities, and that includes taking control of Taiwan, where nationalist forces fled when a civil war ended with Communist victory in 1949.

Over the past three years, Beijing has dramatically stepped up military intimidation of Taiwan, sending rising numbers of warplanes and navy ships to probe the island’s defenses. This effort has only intensified since Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing considers a “dangerous separatist,” became president in May.

This is fueling fears in Taiwan that Xi might try to launch a military invasion of the island – using the same justification that Trump uses when talking about Greenland, for example – and making it more difficult for Washington to credibly object.

If the United States is threatening other nations with its military might, said Wei-Ting Yen, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s national academy, “then what’s the moral ground on which we can say China cannot invade Taiwan?”

Taiwan relies on the United States for robust, if unofficial, political and military support under Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which avoids clarifying whether the United States would militarily intervene to protect the island if China tried to take it over. This is designed to deter Beijing and Taipei from provoking a conflict.

Trump has injected new uncertainty into that fragile positioning, criticizing Taiwan but also giving Taipei reason for optimism.

In his first month back in the White House, Trump has accused Taiwan of stealing the United States’ semiconductor business and argued that Taipei does not pay enough for its own defense against China. Taiwan spends about 2.5% of its gross domestic product on defense – more than most NATO allies – but Trump has suggested it should spend 10%.

At the same time, Trump appointed several China hawks – and vocal supporters of the island and its vibrant democracy – to key positions, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Michael Waltz. Rubio has already spoken positively about Taiwan, and his department last week removed the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its website.

The relationship between the world’s two biggest economies is in a turbulent moment. They are already in the beginnings of a trade war, with Trump this month imposing a blanket 10% tariff on all Chinese goods and Beijing punching back with a slew of retaliatory economic measures.

While the leaders of Mexico and Canada struck deals to delay tariffs, Xi and Trump have not spoken since the tariffs took effect.

Graham Allison, a former U.S. defense official and political scientist who maintains strong links with Beijing, said both leaders seem willing to come to the negotiating table and “do business” with each other.

That business, Allison added, may come at a cost for Taiwan.

“Taiwan will be depreciated in the triangular relationship,” he said, referring to the relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan. “I see no evidence whatever that (Trump) believes the U.S. has any vital interest in Taiwan.”

The prospect of some type of grand bargain involving Taiwan has become all the more pressing given the recent turn of events in Ukraine, another geopolitical flash point with many similarities to Taiwan.

Fumio Kishida, the Japanese prime minister when Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, repeatedly warned of Chinese military aggression against Taiwan, saying that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.”

The Trump administration this week opened talks with Russia about ending the war in Ukraine – without Ukrainian officials present. Many see ominous parallels with China and Taiwan.

Chinese officials will view this as an American “sellout” of Ukraine, said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“The negotiation on Ukraine … reinforces the Chinese conviction that if a strong power is determined to invade a smaller one, it eventually can and will get away with it,” she said.

For the past three years, Taipei has appealed to the United States that Taiwan, like Ukraine, is a beacon of democracy on the front lines of authoritarianism.

Taiwanese officials have argued that helping Ukraine fight Russia is imperative to deterring a Chinese attack of the island.

But that no longer strikes a chord in Trump’s Washington, said Alexander Huang, the director of international affairs for the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, which has historically favored closer ties with Beijing.

Taiwan’s progressive government is “still in the loop of the usual narrative and belief that value diplomacy is right and the United States will support Taiwan because of democracy,” Huang said. “That won’t happen.”

Now, the only currency that matters in Washington is interests, not values.

“How to make Taiwan a partner that’s advancing U.S. interests in the region, and protecting Taiwan’s own interests, is a very, very important topic,” Huang said.

Lai’s government has changed its approach in an attempt to appeal to a skeptical Trump and is doing its best to convince him that the United States and Taiwan share overlapping interests.

Lai on Friday laid out a three-pronged plan for avoiding U.S. tariffs and currying favor with Trump.

This includes balancing Taiwan’s large trade surplus with the United States – which makes it a potential target of Trump’s tariffs – encouraging more investments from high-tech Taiwanese firms in the United States, and boosting defense spending.

“We aim to help the new U.S. administration understand that Taiwan is an indispensable partner for America’s manufacturing revitalization and for securing its leadership in high technology,” Lai said in a news conference after a national security meeting about coping with the challenges of the Trump administration.

“Taiwan-U.S. cooperation will create a shared win-win outcome,” he said.

One Taiwanese official familiar with negotiations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal discussions, described the strategy as a “gift basket” for Trump.

Taiwanese officials went to the United States last week to offer to buy more U.S. liquefied natural gas in an attempt to redress the trade imbalance.

Lai also pledged on Friday to increase defense spending to more than 3% of GDP annually.

Members of Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) say this boost should underscore Taipei’s commitment to self defense – and its opposition to geopolitical horse-trading.

Wang Ting-yu, a DPP lawmaker and chair of the foreign affairs and defense committee, condemned the prospect of other countries negotiating over its future.

“Taiwan is my home, it’s my country,” he said in an interview. “It’s not anyone else’s bargaining chip.”