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Gonzaga Basketball

Four Out: Examining potential lineup changes and defensive shakeups for Gonzaga coming off a sixth loss

We debuted our “Four Out” series last January, with Gonzaga facing somewhat of an identity crisis coming off an upset loss to Santa Clara, having just dropped out of the AP Top 25 and entering a crucial stretch of West Coast Conference games that would determine the team’s NCAA Tournament fate.

Sound familiar?

Gonzaga’s resume is stronger at this point than it was last year, and the NCAA Tournament situation isn’t as dire as it was 365 days ago when the Bulldogs didn’t have a single Quad 1 victory. But Mark Few’s team just fell out of the Top 25 after a 103-99 loss to Herb Sendek’s Broncos and the 2024-25 group moves into the final six weeks of conference play without much margin for error.

With so many parallels between the Zags teams, we wound up answering some of the same questions we tackled last year – along with some new ones – in our first “Four Out” of the 2024-25 season.

1. From players to fans, the frustration level with this Gonzaga basketball season seems pretty high at the moment. Do you see a team that just needs a breakthrough victory (like the Kentucky win a season ago) to jump-start momentum, or are the issues deeper than that?

Theo Lawson: A quality win could help this group, certainly, but only under the right circumstances. In other words, if the Zags yield 90 points at home against Oregon State on Tuesday, a victory in that scenario still may not put fans at ease if the same defensive issues continue to show up. At this point in the year, with the losses GU has taken, winning almost feels like a necessity. Because the Zags will be favored in most of the games they play moving forward, it would be hard to categorize any as a “breakthrough.” Even in an improved WCC, these wins are still expected when “Gonzaga” is embroidered on your uniform. The real breakthrough would be stringing together three or four victories where it’s apparent the defensive numbers are trending in a positive direction, as opposed to spiraling downhill the way they have the last three games.

Jim Meehan: Gonzaga’s “issues” are pretty clear. 1) The defense has struggled mightily, giving up 200 points in the past two games and at least 53% shooting in each of the past three. No other opponent has made more than 47.6%. 2) The offense has sputtered late in regulation and/or overtime in essentially five of six narrow losses. Both are fixable as GU has had strong defensive stretches and the offense ranks third nationally at 88.4 points per game.

As for “breakthrough” victories, blue-blood opportunities like Kentucky, UConn and UCLA have come and gone. What the Zags need the most is to post numerous quality WCC wins in any manner possible, but it would probably be good for the team psyche if defense and late-game execution were primary contributors in those outcomes.

2. After watching Gonzaga’s small-ball rotation (featuring Ben Gregg at the 5) have such great success in the final minutes against Santa Clara, what downsides – if any – do you see for the Zags going to that lineup more often?

Meehan: Maybe, but that was something of an emergency situation with Santa Clara scoring at will, leading by 13 inside the final 4 minutes and Graham Ike pulled after flagrant and technical fouls. The final five, which featured several of GU’s best defenders in Michael Ajayi, Dusty Stromer and Gregg, was quicker and more mobile. They dialed up the pressure, played with maximum effort and gave the Zags a chance in the last minute. Mark Few said of the closing unit afterward he is “open to anything,” so they obviously made an impression. It could be something used going forward but probably in specific situations when full-court pressure is necessary.

Potential downsides would probably be dealing with bigger posts in the half court and generating points, especially in the paint, with Ike, Braden Huff and Khalif Battle – three of the team’s top four scorers – on the bench.

Lawson: The full-court press flummoxed Santa Clara for a few minutes, allowing Gonzaga to rip off a 10-0 run that made Saturday’s game tense all the way up to the final buzzer, but the Broncos were able to solve it after three or four possessions and converted a few late field goals that essentially put the game out of reach. Gonzaga discovered something with the smaller lineup and Few might be kicking himself that he didn’t try it out earlier on against Santa Clara, as the Broncos were building a double-digit lead.

Now that the Zags have it in their back pocket, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it at some point down the road, but probably only in short spurts. Ike and Huff are too valuable to Gonzaga’s operation on the offensive end, command tons of attention from opponents and have a knack of getting their defenders into foul trouble.

There’s no easy solution for what’s ailing Gonzaga on the defensive end and it’ll likely take collective buy-in from all five players on the court, rather than a simple lineup or schematic change.

3. Even with the additions of Washington State and Oregon State, the WCC still seems to provide a challenging path for GU. Looking at the schedule, how many more games can the Zags realistically lose and still have an at-large path?

Lawson: Putting a number on it is difficult and the nature of the losses would obviously matter. Gonzaga might just be able to afford three more losses if two of those came against Saint Mary’s and a third came against, say, San Francisco at the Chase Center – another projected Quad 1 opportunity. If the Zags drop only two more games, but one of the losses came against the WCC’s bottom tier – Portland, Pacific, Pepperdine – they’d be in a heap of trouble come Selection Sunday.

To the first part of the question, it is concerning that GU has already taken two conference losses without having played what I’d contend are the team’s five most challenging WCC games: at SMC, at WSU, vs. SMC, at Santa Clara, at USF. The Zags should be viewing that stretch as an opportunity to right the ship, pad their resume with quality wins and guarantee a double-bye at the WCC Tournament, but nothing has been a given with this team and anyone in the conference is capable of picking GU off if the defensive issues persist (see: second half vs. Pepperdine).

Meehan: I’d guess two, possibly three. WSU and OSU provide additional opportunities, but both teams have demonstrated they’re fully capable of knocking off anybody in the top six. By my math, err, studying the latest NET rankings, Gonzaga has three Quad 2 games left in the regular season (vs. Oregon State, vs. San Francisco, at WSU) and four Quad 1s (at Saint Mary’s and the final three games vs. Saint Mary’s, at Santa Clara and at San Francisco). Of course, this is all subject to change depending on fluctuations in teams’ rankings. For example, Baylor is currently a Quad 1 win because the Bears are No. 29. If they fall to 31, it becomes a Quad 2 victory for Gonzaga, which is just 2-5 vs. Q1s.

If the Zags go 5-2 in those seven Quad 1/2 games, snag a couple of Q1s and don’t stub their toe against the bottom five teams, they can probably rest comfortably on Selection Sunday eve. If they go 4-3, melatonin is advised. If they go 6-1, they’re likely a lock for a bye into the West Coast Conference Tournament semifinals and in the 5-6 seed range. If they go 7-0, they clinch at least a share of the WCC regular-season title and are probably in consideration for a top-four seed with a chance to open the NCAA Tournament in Seattle.

Timing is an important consideration, too. Say GU handles Oregon State (Quad 2) next week and Saint Mary’s in Moraga, California, on Feb. 1, but loses three of the final four, that probably wouldn’t leave a favorable impression on the selection committee.

Gonzaga’s WCC Tournament results obviously will be a key factor, too.

4. What are your predictions for the starting lineup against Portland on Saturday? Do you foresee a shakeup, and if so, how might that make a difference?

Meehan: As mentioned, all options appear to be on the table. There figures to be changes, some subtle and some more pronounced, but my guess is those will be more with the rotation and not necessarily the starting unit. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stromer got the starting nod, but more likely is the 6-foot-6 sophomore playing 27 minutes to Battle’s 19 – as it played out Saturday vs. Santa Clara – should the Arkansas transfer struggle again. I could see more minutes for Emmanuel Innocenti, one of the team’s top defenders, who didn’t play vs. the Broncos.

I’d think the shake-up will be more centered on the defensive end, perhaps a new wrinkle or two, and perhaps more with Gonzaga’s approach demeanor on the court. The players and coaches talked about playing with more heart and passion and cleaning up defensive mistakes after the SCU loss. Saturday, and the rest of the season, is their chance to show it on the floor.

Lawson: Few has toyed with the starting lineup a few times this season and if the Zags plan on shuffling again, this is probably the best time to do it. They have six days to ramp up for Saturday’s game against Portland, which could be a good opportunity to test out a new unit before a challenging two-game stretch against Oregon State and Saint Mary’s. Obviously, any change Gonzaga makes at this point would be with defense in mind, and Jim outlined one of the two possibilities I considered (swapping Stromer for Battle).

Another potential solution could be inserting Ajayi into the starting lineup for Battle. Gonzaga’s best stretch last season came when the Bulldogs shifted to a bigger lineup, with Anton Watson, Gregg and Ike on the floor together. Ajayi’s offensive struggles are troubling – the Pepperdine transfer is 0 for 5 from the field with six points in GU’s past three games – but perhaps moving from the “4” to “3” could unlock some of the scoring that made him such a coveted player in the transfer portal. Offense aside, Ajayi’s shown the ability to rebound at a high level and work tirelessly on defense even when shots aren’t falling. Battle has just three rebounds in his past 91 minutes and lacks the size, athleticism and defensive versatility that Ajayi possesses.