Analysis: Why Mariners are left with few options to improve roster
SEATTLE – The initial plan for this analysis was to offer an update on potential moves or signings that the Seattle Mariners might make as the Feb. 12 report date for pitchers and catchers looms.
But after hours spent checking the rosters of other teams for potential positional redundancies, assessing who might still need help in their starting rotation, looking at arbitration-eligible players that might be making just a little too much for their respective team, the options seem limited.
After calling more than a few different people working in Major League Baseball to verify the Mariners’ solutionless situation, there didn’t seem to be much pushback toward a positive outcome.
“Uninspiring” was used more than once in the description of the offseason thus far.
Why?
There are multiple reasons for the inactivity.
It starts with self-imposed limitations set by ownership. Jerry Dipoto, the president of baseball operations, and general manager Justin Hollander were given a meager payroll budget for the upcoming season. They managed to put together roughly $15 million to use on additions by non-tendering Josh Rojas and not exercising Jorge Polanco’s contract option.
When you have needs at first base, second base and third base, well, that’s not enough spending power in the free-agent market. It’s really not enough considering the T-Mobile Park inflation rate for hitters, which means the Mariners have to pay at least 20% over market value to get a hitter to want to sign and play their home games in the unfriendly hitting environment. They have spent $3.5 million on veteran infielder Donovan Solano – their only signing of the offseason.
Even if the ownership, which includes two billionaires as principal owners, was handed a cash infusion to increase their payroll by another $10 million, there isn’t much left on the market to put the money to work.
Signing Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso? Not likely to happen even in that fantasy world. Padres second baseman Ha-Seong Kim would be a nice fit, but he had season-ending shoulder surgery in 2024 and won’t be ready until at least May. Could Seattle get him at a discount? Probably not because other organizations will try to do the same.
But the hope is that when Alonso chooses between the Mets and Blue Jays and Bregman decides if he wants to go to the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees or a possible return to Houston, it will spur some more transactions throughout baseball, including the trade market.
Speaking of trades, the Mariners prefer that route if possible.
But …
Right or wrong, almost all of the teams in MLB believe they can contend for the postseason thanks to the extra wild card.
A year ago, the Braves and Mets (89 wins) and the Royals and Tigers (86 wins) earned wild-card spots while the Astros won the AL West with only 88 wins. In 2023, the Twins won the AL Central with only 87 wins while the Rangers (90 wins) and Blue Jays (89 wins) each qualified for AL wild-card spots. In the NL, the Marlins and Diamondbacks (84 wins) each earned wild-card spots.
The expanded postseason has given almost every MLB team – even the Angels, A’s, Nationals and Pirates after multiple losing seasons – reason to believe they can make the postseason.
And there is evidence for that thinking. The Royals went 56-106 in 2023. In 2022, the Diamondbacks went 74-88 while the Rangers finished with a 68-94 record. They played for the World Series the next season.
Because of that thinking, teams are less willing to give up major-league talent for prospects that can’t help them in the upcoming season. The Mariners’ farm system – which has six players in Baseball America’s recently released Top 100 prospects – is coveted by most teams. But those prospects can’t convince the Cubs to trade second baseman Nico Hoerner or the Rays to move second baseman Brandon Lowe.
Only two teams – the White Sox and Marlins – are in known rebuilding situations where they are willing to give up MLB talent for prospects. But the problem is there isn’t much MLB talent left on their rosters after sending away pieces at last year’s trade deadline and this offseason.
The Rockies, who should be in a rebuilding mode that should’ve started about six years ago, are banished to some weird baseball purgatory where their ownership isn’t willing to commit to winning or rebuilding and has no plan to fix either.
The trade market to acquire viable MLB players will require a return of MLB talent. It’s why the Mariners had to at least test the potential trade market on Luis Castillo even though they preferred to leave their starting rotation intact.
With Solano likely to share time at first base with Luke Raley, the Mariners still have needs at second and third base. Right now, some combo of Dylan Moore, Leo Rivas, Ryan Bliss, Miles Mastrobuoni or Austin Shenton would fill those two spots and subsequent bench roles. That’s four career utility players and a third baseman who is probably more viable at first base.
Could the Mariners use the $12 million on one or two free agents? Yes, but the pickings aren’t great.
Based on projected FanGraphs’ WAR for the 2025 season, here are the 10 best free-agent infielders available:
1. Jorge Polanco: Can’t imagine he’d re-sign after Seattle didn’t pick up his 2025 option.
2. Jose Iglesias: He had a career rejuvenation with the Mets last season at the young age of 35.
3. Yoán Moncada: A once-touted prospect who gets hurt often and doesn’t seem to like baseball.
4. Brendan Rodgers: Playing in Coors Field didn’t even save his overall offensive numbers last season.
5. Enrique Hernandez: He will find a way back to the Dodgers, who seem to deal with his unique personality best.
6. Whit Merrifield: The Mariners tried to acquire him in 2022. He’s now 36 and playing like it.
7. Nicky Lopez: He’s a defense-first utility player, which means he could start for Seattle.
8. Luis Urias: Need to know about the weakness of the free-agent infielders? He ranks eighth on this list.
9. Abraham Toro: There will always be that grand slam off Kendall Graveman in 2022.
10. Paul DeJong: A 32% strikeout rate with power that doesn’t translate in Seattle.
As for trades, the Mariners would prefer to part with prospects to get MLB help. To do that, Dipoto’s creativity would have to be really used. He would have to try and work a three-team trade that would send prospects to the White Sox or Marlins, who would send one of their few useful players to fill a contending team’s need and the Mariners get a player from that team.
A random and quick hypothetical: Seattle sends catcher Harry Ford, infielder Michael Arroyo and a prospect to the Marlins. Miami sends right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera to St. Louis. The Cardinals send infielder Brendan Donovan to Seattle. It’s not going to happen, but that’s the mechanics of the trade.
Most teams that found themselves with a surplus of players at certain positions have made trades to even out their rosters.
And of course, a trade of Castillo is a possibility. The Mets could use a front-line starting pitcher. But part of the impetus for possibly trading Castillo was to not only get MLB talent back, but to free up some extra money from his yearly salary ($24 million for each of the next three seasons) to use on free agents. That market now seems a little sparse.
Dipoto talked about having the core of the 2025 roster in place when the 2024 season ended. Right now, it’s projecting to be the core and not much more going into spring training.