As Trump turns toward Ukraine, Russians wonder if an opportunity was missed

Russia appeared to brush aside President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs against Moscow and its trading partners if its war with Ukraine does not end in 50 days, but there are signs of growing concern among some factions of the nation’s elite that an opportunity may have been missed.

Trump’s announcement about selling advanced weapons to Ukraine and pressuring Russia are his strongest moves of support for Kyiv after months of dramatically shifting positions since his inauguration. For a time, it appeared that the U.S. leader was more sympathetic to Russia’s view of the conflict, with top U.S. envoys repeating Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talking points.

That all appears to have changed last week after Trump expressed his frustration over Moscow’s continued bombardment of Ukraine. He warned that he was readying “a major statement” on Russia and said he was “strongly” looking at a “very, very tough sanctions” bill being prepared by the Senate.

Since then, many in Moscow have been steeling themselves for his announcement, and the Russian stock market tumbled last week. But by Tuesday morning it had recovered, climbing 4 percent since Trump’s announcement on Monday evening.

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that Russia “didn’t care” about what he described as no more than “a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow needs more time to analyze Trump’s comments, which he said were “quite serious.”

“For now, we can say one thing unequivocally: It seems that such a decision, which is being taken in Washington, in NATO countries and directly in Brussels, is perceived by the Ukrainian side not as a signal for peace, but as a signal for the continuation of war,” Peskov said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the European Union was “trying to pull the U.S. into the sanctions vortex,” but he dismissed Trump’s threat as yet another ultimatum. “Fifty days - it used to be 24 hours; it used to be 100 days; we’ve been through all of this,” he said. “An unprecedented number of sanctions have already been imposed against us. We are coping. I have no doubt that we will cope.”

Since the 50 days span the middle of Russia’s summer offensive during the peak fighting season, the U.S. deadline will probably allow Moscow’s push to continue. “Trump’s statement turned out to be much weaker than anyone expected,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

But Trump’s new weapons deal and his increasing criticism of Putin’s grinding military campaign have sparked an uneasiness among some factions of the Russian elite over the deepening conflict and fears that Putin could overplay his hand.

“The number of those who are upset with Putin for the fact that he could have stopped the war but didn’t do it is growing,” Stanovaya said. “It is not a question of whether such a deal was ever genuinely possible, but rather a matter of prevailing sentiment - a belief that there was a moment of opportunity, unilaterally squandered due to Putin’s obstinacy and irrationality.”

A deal was not possible because, “as [Vice President] JD Vance said, Putin wants too much,” Stanovaya said.

In the spring, there had been hope that Trump and Putin would reach an agreement and ease sanctions, especially after envoy Steve Witkoff talked about a deal for lifting sanctions and recognizing Russia’s territorial conquests in return for freezing the front line.

The Kremlin, however, indicated that such an approach was only “okay as a starting point,” Stanovaya said. Momentum for the deal died, especially in the face of Ukrainian and European opposition to an agreement that could give Moscow the opportunity to later take additional territory, and Russia stuck to its hard-line, maximalist goals.

With no deal now in sight, concern has been growing among members of Russia’s financial elite about the deterioration of a Russian economy racked by inflation due to the existing sanctions regime and Putin’s wartime spending spree. Central Bank efforts to rein in price growth by imposing sky-high interest rates at over 20 percent have pitched the country toward a credit crisis and recession.

One by one, Russian officials attending last month’s St. Petersburg economic forum warned that the Russian economy was “overcooling,” as investment dried up and nonpayments soared. The head of one of Russia’s biggest steel producers, Severstal, warned of production cuts and plant closures in the Russian steel industry, while Alexander Shokhin, the influential head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, warned that many companies were in “a pre-default situation” as a debt crisis loomed.

Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina said the reserves that had allowed the Russian economy to grow for two years under conditions of war have been “exhausted.”

“Credit crisis. Recession. It is all clear to everyone. But the political will is pointed in the other direction,” said a Russian official speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. The Kremlin “is banging the drum for war. The mood is for war to a victorious end. Of course, entrepreneurs and economists are calling for caution and talks. But the military and diplomats are calling for a war to the very end. At the current moment, the discourse is only about removing the roots of the conflict and how we will take all of the territory.”

The Kremlin believes it has the upper hand, the official said. Russia “felt the support of its Chinese brother. And it felt the total support of its North Korean brother.” North Korea has been sending troops and ammunition to support Russia.

However, polls published last week by Russia’s Levada Center show 64 percent of Russians support peace talks over continuing the war, a record high for the second month in a row.

While discontent over the deepening conflict and Putin’s continued pursuit of more Ukrainian territory is only slowly permeating the system, Putin and other decision-makers are probably unaware since such opinions are kept far from the centers of decision-making, Stanovaya and the Russian official said.

“The view of Putin and people in Moscow connected to power is that we will crush Ukraine all the same,” Stanovaya said.

Economists say Russia can sustain its war effort for another 18 to 20 months despite the mounting economic problems under the current sanctions regime, as long as oil prices do not drop for a prolonged period.

And many in Moscow have dismissed Trump’s threat to impose secondary 100 percent tariffs on countries trading with Russia, such as China and India, as completely unrealistic. “To imagine that the U.S. will launch a total trade war against India, for instance, then this is very unlikely,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst. “In Russia, no one believes that Trump can impose 100 percent tariffs on China and India.”

Trump’s decision to provide Ukraine with more U.S. weaponry would only further push Putin to continue an aggressive offensive and deepen the conflict, he said. “This only confirms the correctness of Putin’s policy,” he said.

Trump’s shift on Russia has not gone unnoticed by the state propaganda machine, which after months of fairly moderate coverage of the U.S. president, has turned on him with a vengeance and compared him to his predecessor - someone Trump spares no opportunity to criticize himself.

TV presenter Olga Skabeyeva said Trump’s criticisms of Russia were “more and more scandalous,” adding: “Donald Trump is going back to how Biden closed his presidency.”

After Trump said that Putin wants to “keep killing people” in Ukraine, state propagandist Vladimir Solovyov warned that Russia could destroy America with its massive nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed Poseidon submarine drone.

He said last week that Trump has “gone crazy and “is being Bidenized before our eyes.” He expressed particular outrage over a CNN report that Trump boasted at a 2024 fundraiser that he had once threatened Putin he would bomb Moscow if he invaded Ukraine.

Two Poseidons attacking different sides of the United States would “cause a radioactive tsunami,” Solovyov said on his “Full Contact” state television program. Russia has weapons that no air defense system could beat, he added.

Russia, Solovyov said, should punch the West in the nose.