U.S. to withdraw diplomats from Iraq amid Iran tensions

WASHINGTON – The State Department is withdrawing diplomats from Iraq, and the Pentagon has authorized the voluntary departure of military family members from the Middle East as tensions spike amid signs that nuclear diplomacy between the United States and Iran is deadlocked.

Word of the U.S. decisions, along with a warning from Britain about new threats to Middle East commercial shipping, came hours after President Donald Trump said in a podcast released Wednesday that he had grown “less confident” about the prospects for a deal with Iran that would limit its ability to develop nuclear weapons.

Israeli officials have threatened to attack Iran if it does not effectively surrender its nuclear program.

American and Iranian negotiators have been planning to meet later this week for another round of talks, although Trump told reporters Monday that Iran had adopted an “unacceptable” negotiating position.

The British warning came from the country’s maritime trade agency, which said in a public advisory that it had “been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners.” The advisory urged commercial vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz to use heightened caution.

At the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from across the Middle East, according to a statement from U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. military activity in the region.

“The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority,” the statement said, adding that it was “monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East.”

Asked about the reason for authorized departures as he arrived at the Kennedy Center in Washington for a Wednesday evening performance of “Les Misérables,” Trump told reporters, “Well, you’re going to have to figure that one out yourself.”

Analysts debated a range of possibilities Wednesday, including that the United States and Britain might be trying to intimidate Iran, or alternately were responding with alarm to bellicose statements from Iranian officials. Some also wondered whether U.S. and British officials were reacting to a heightened chance that Israel would attack Iran.

Trump has said that he does not want Israel to take military action that could disrupt his efforts to broker a nuclear deal with Tehran. It is unclear whether his expressions of dimmed confidence in a diplomatic solution may reflect a new openness to military action. Trump spoke by phone on Monday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, but the White House disclosed few details about the conversation.

Iran’s defense minister, Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, raised alarms Wednesday with a warning that, in the event of a conflict following failed nuclear talks, the United States would suffer heavy losses. “America will have to leave the region because all its military bases are within our reach and we will, without any consideration, target them in the host countries,” he told reporters.

Iranian officials also balked at remarks Tuesday by Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of Central Command. Kurilla testified before a House committee that he had presented Trump and Hegseth “a wide range of options” for a potential strike against Iran. Kurilla was scheduled to testify again Thursday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, but his testimony was postponed without explanation.

Iran’s mission to the U.N. denounced Kurilla’s comments in a Wednesday social media post as “militarism” that “fuels instability.”

The tough talk came amid a week of meetings in Vienna by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors. The United States, Britain, France and Germany have submitted a resolution to the agency that would censure Iran for rapidly advancing its nuclear program and violating other commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal brokered with those countries, along with China and Russia. The board is expected to vote on the censure resolution on Thursday morning.

Censure could be grounds for the U.N. Security Council to restore, or “snap back,” heavy economic sanctions on Tehran that were lifted as part of the 2015 deal, which was struck by the Obama administration. Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from that agreement in 2018, a move that Iran says gave it license to abandon its commitments to limit its nuclear activity. The deal’s European parties insist that it remains enforceable through restored sanctions.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on social media on Wednesday that censure “will compel Iran to react STRONGLY.”

David Makovsky, a scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested that Iran might be trying to deter international action against it.

“Could we be seeing Iran muscle flexing to intimidate the IAEA as it considers a major move?” Makovsky asked.

The State Department did not provide details on how many personnel would be removed from Iraq, or why. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that nonessential U.S. personnel would be withdrawn from Baghdad, and that nonessential personnel and family members of diplomats had been authorized to depart from U.S. embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait.

The military dependents authorized to depart the Middle East are largely from Navy and Marine families in Bahrain, home to a major U.S. naval base, a senior Navy official said.

Iranian military and government officials have already met to discuss their response to a potential Israeli strike, according to a senior Iranian official. The official said that Tehran had devised a response plan that would involve an immediate counterstrike on Israel with hundreds of ballistic missiles. (In October 2024, a major Iranian missile assault against Israel related to the war in the Gaza Strip inflicted limited damage, however, in part because of U.S. assistance.)

Iran’s atomic program has progressed dramatically since Trump abandoned the 2015 deal. Analysts say that Iran is now on the brink of being able to manufacture enough nuclear material to fuel a nuclear weapon.

Constructing a workable device, if Iran chose to pursue that option, could take several more months. But many top Israeli officials already consider Iran’s progress to be unacceptable and have openly threatened military action against its nuclear facilities.

Many Israeli officials believe they have a golden opportunity to solve a decades-long problem. Israel has recently decimated Hezbollah and Hamas, Iranian proxy groups that Tehran has long relied on as a deterrent to Israeli action. And Israeli airstrikes last year severely reduced Iran’s air defense systems.

Some analysts warn that Iran has been restoring those defenses, making Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear program riskier by the week. It is also unclear whether Israel can inflict decisive damage on Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. military assistance.

U.S. oil prices climbed above $68 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, their highest level since early April, when Trump placed tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. Fighting in the region could disrupt oil supplies, as could tougher American sanctions on Iran.

Iraq produces around 4% of the world’s oil, while Iran generates roughly 3%, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

The aircraft carrier Carl Vinson has been in the Arabian Sea for several weeks. More than 60 aircraft are aboard the Vinson, including advanced F-35 stealth strike fighters.

The senior Navy official said there were currently no plans to change the carrier’s position in response to the developing situation.

The United States also has several dozen attack and fighter jets deployed in the Middle East. These aircraft were used extensively to defend Israel from Iranian strikes last year.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.