Part of Alaska is under a heat advisory. That’s a first.
Temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-80s in central Alaska – you read that right – this weekend and perhaps into next week. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon in an area that includes Fairbanks.
“Hot temperatures up to 86 (are) expected,” wrote the office serving the city.
Upcoming days may end up with similar temperatures. Highs in Fairbanks are forecast to rise to 84 degrees Saturday, 86 degrees Sunday and 85 degrees Monday.
Similarly toasty temperatures may persist deeper into next week as a warm weather pattern appears ready to hang on.
A heat advisory in Alaska?
This is the first year that local Weather Service offices have begun issuing heat advisories. Before this month, any risk of heat was disseminated through special weather statements.
In a statement earlier this year, the Weather Service wrote that the change would “allow WFOs Fairbanks and Juneau to better communicate heat information and impacts in their forecast areas.”
Criteria for heat advisories in Alaska range across forecast maximums of at least 75 to 85 degrees depending on location. In Fairbanks, it needs to be 85 degrees to prompt an alert.
Temperatures are not expected to reach the record high for Sunday in Fairbanks. The city’s hottest temperature on record, 96 degrees, was set on June 15, 1969. On many other days in summer, such a mark would be threatened.
The last time it was this warm in the city was during early August last year.
Signs of warming
Temperature in Fairbanks rise to the mid-80s about two to three times per year on average in the current climate. While there has been little change in this metric over the decades, Alaska is prone to some of the most significant warming on Earth from human-caused climate change.
It’s possible that Fairbanks will experience numerous days at or above 85 degrees over the next week or so, and that could push it up the ranks of most on record for a year. The current leader is 2013 with 14 such days. If 2025 reaches five such days, it would crack the top 20 years for days at or above 85 degrees, with lots of summer to go.
Fairbanks could also see a week or more of consecutive days with highs of 80 or greater. Should that happen, it will rank among the top streaks on record, the longest of which is 14 days in 1991.
The surge, coming on the heels of a chilly May and cool start to June, could persist. Meteorologists anticipate additional hot weather next week as an area of high pressure extends its hold over the region.
More broadly, warming in Alaska is two to three times the average of the rest of the globe. That is part of the reason heat advisories are now on the table in the state.