Commentary: Why Bryce Miller’s rough start is becoming a concern for Mariners

SEATTLE – Bryce Miller didn’t want to go into specifics about what was bothering him, but has mentioned arm soreness and back stiffness in the past. Equally constricting, though, has been a mindset in which he grows nervous about making a mistake rather than attacking the hitter — particularly with traffic on the base paths.

That’s why Miller emphasized a change in mentality going into this week, in which he vowed to be more aggressive. And though his fastball control was a little better Sunday, the results simply didn’t follow.

The 26-year-old gave up five hits and two runs through the first four innings, when the Mariners trailed 2-1. But with two outs in the fifth, he hurled a 92-mph fastball — 2.4 mph below his season average and three mph below last year’s average — over the middle to George Springer, who socked a three-run homer. An inning later, Miller allowed a walk and a single before being pulled, then watched a Jonatan Clase double add two more earned runs to his stat line.

Rough day. But more concerning — rough year.

Miller led the Mariners’ pitching staff in WAR last season at 3.4. His 2.94 ERA was tops among qualified Seattle starters, too. This year, however, the control has vanished.

Last year, Miller walked 2.1 batters per nine innings. This year, it’s at 4.76. And though his strikeouts per nine are only down marginally, his strikeouts per batter faced have dropped noticeably.

This is clearly problematic for a Mariners team that is not only sans starters Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, but also just got swept by the Blue Jays to drop to 22-17. They still have a two-game lead in the American League West, but if Miller doesn’t find something resembling his old form, the M’s become that much more vulnerable.

It’s hard to know what the answer is. When Mariners manager Dan Wilson was asked about Miller’s season, he went in full-on protect-the-player mode. He praised the way Miller was able to get ahead in counts, commended his secondary pitches and said there “are things he can take from this one and continue to build.”

Fans are seeing something else, though. The best they can hope for is that Miller’s body is on the cusp of healing after a tumultuous few months. He said Sunday that he felt good physically coming into the start, so maybe he’s not too far off. But he also made multiple references to how “mental” of a game baseball is, and when you haven’t notched a quality start through the second week of May, it’s only going to get more taxing on the mind.

Even so, Miller is staying optimistic. He said “score aside,” Sunday was the best he’d thrown this season. He added that it was the most command he’d had of his fastball, and that if not for that meatball to Springer, he may have been just fine. Maybe. His first seven starts this season suggest otherwise.

Funny how one series can shift the perception of a team. The best club in the American League for the past few weeks, the M’s now have three games with a Yankees squad that has the ability to knock them out of first place.

Miller won’t pitch in that series. Might be for the best. He’s been shaky all season. Now we find out if he can shake it off.