Planned Russia-Ukraine talks upend European push for U.S. sanctions on Moscow

ANTALYA, Turkey – The promise of direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has derailed European efforts to get the United States on board with imposing new sanctions on Russia if there is not an immediate 30-day ceasefire.

Just as European officials were seeing a greater degree of skepticism from President Donald Trump’s team toward Russia’s intentions and conferring with U.S. officials on sanctions, President Vladimir Putin’s offer of talks changed the conversation.

The surprise meeting expected Thursday in Istanbul has thrown the sanctions plans into question, according to nine European, Ukrainian and U.S. diplomats and officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

While the talks are being seized on as a possible breakthrough in efforts to end the war, Russia only revealed late Wednesday it was sending a low-level delegation of deputy ministers. And after top U.S. envoys bolstered the talks by saying they were coming, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were no plans to meet them.

When the leaders of France, Britain, Germany and Poland traveled to Kyiv last weekend to press for a ceasefire, they held a phone call with President Donald Trump, and he expressed willingness to wield pressure – including possible sanctions – on Russia, two of the diplomats said.

Putin’s call for talks, however, which Trump then backed, upended the threat as all sides scrambled to organize meetings in Istanbul, even while details about agendas and delegations remained unclear.

“There has been coordination with the Americans on sanctions, and there have been good signals. But in the end, it depends on the flavor of the day,” a European official said.

The continent’s leaders have still pushed for coordinated European and American sanctions, possibly targeting the financial and energy sectors, to pressure the Kremlin into halting the fighting. But their uncertainty about whether Washington will follow through has deepened, with European officials describing Putin’s call for the meeting as a stalling tactic.

The diplomatic flurry in Turkey underscored how each side has had to maneuver to sway Trump and avoid being seen as an obstacle to achieving his ambition of a deal.

Conversations at a two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers that started Wednesday in the southern Turkish city of Antalya have been dominated by news of the talks.

The meeting would mark the first sign of movement in negotiations that appear to have been stalled for weeks, as well as the first direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow since the early months of Russia’s 2022 invasion. On the U.S. side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in Antalya meeting with NATO counterparts, and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are expected to head to Istanbul on Friday.

Russia, however, has not said it will meet with them and at the last minute revealed it would send as its negotiators with Ukraine presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin – a long way from Putin himself, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had demanded, or even a top minister. Medinsky was Russia’s chief negotiator in the failed 2022 talks.

With Russia stalling for days on whom it would send to the talks, Zelenskyy had been on the verge of canceling Ukraine’s participation until U.S. and European officials pulled him back from the brink Tuesday night, said two diplomats familiar with the matter. The officials stressed it was critical to at least send a delegation of senior aides, including his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, but faced repeated resistance from Ukraine’s leader.

“Zelenskyy didn’t see the point in going at all,” said one of the diplomats.

Witkoff impressed on the Ukrainians that showing up to direct talks with Russia was a win-win situation: If they showed up and Russia didn’t, Moscow would look bad and suffer the consequences. If Ukraine and Russia showed up, the two sides might get closer to a ceasefire and an end to the war, said the two diplomats familiar with discussions.

Zelenskyy is still pushing for a meeting with Putin himself in Turkey and is expected to arrive late Wednesday in the capital, Ankara, to meet the Turkish president.

“Why personally with him (Putin)? Because a serious conversation about ending the killing and ending the war should be held with the one who ultimately makes decisions in Russia,” said a Ukrainian official. “Everything will depend on whether Putin is scared of coming to Turkey or not. Based on his response, the Ukrainian leadership will decide on the next steps.”

Aboard Air Force One, Trump, who is on a trip to the Middle East, told reporters Wednesday he did not know if Putin would show up for talks in Turkey. “I know he would like me to be there. And that’s a possibility. … I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out,” he said.

With Trump endorsing a Russia-Ukraine meeting, European leaders are now waiting to see if anything comes out of Thursday’s talks.

The European Union on Wednesday agreed on its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, mainly targeting the so-called “shadow fleet” used to skirt an embargo on Russian oil. The hope and discussions with Washington had been for broader European and U.S. sanctions to send a warning to the Kremlin against stalling.

“There was a moment where (talks) felt like a lost cause, but now it seems like there could be some momentum,” on negotiations and on the U.S. appetite for pressing Russia, a European diplomat said.

He said Trump’s unpredictability may not be all bad if it keeps the Kremlin guessing, too. “But there needs to be a credible threat this time,” the diplomat said. “Otherwise it looks like Putin doesn’t have to do much beyond waiting it out.”

French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday night declared an intention to unveil new sanctions “in the coming days” and “in close coordination with the United States” if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire. He said that EU officials were in talks with Trump administration officials and U.S. senators on sanctions, eyeing financial services and oil and gas as possible targets.

The new U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew G. Whitaker, said “everything is on the table” in the bid to negotiate an end to the war. “We will ultimately have to judge President Putin’s commitment to a long-term ceasefire by their actions, not their words,” he told reporters Tuesday.

Asked whether Washington would impose new sanctions if Russia still rejects an immediate 30-day ceasefire, he said: “We just have to take this a step at a time.”

“I think President Trump has expressed that he’s been frustrated with Russia. He had previously been frustrated with Ukraine,” Whitaker added. “From where I sit right now, I think we are as close as we’ve ever been” to halting the fighting. “But we have to see how this plays out.”

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Michael Birnbaum in Doha, Qatar, contributed to this report.