‘A huge achievement’: Israel-Hamas ceasefire brings cautious optimism from Spokane-area experts

An agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire to end the war in Gaza has brought renewed but restrained optimism for achieving a durable peace in the region.

Israel’s parliament approved the deal hours after the lead Hamas negotiator declared the war over on Thursday. In the coming days, hostages are expected to be released from Gaza, the Israeli military will end fighting and withdraw to an agreed-upon line, and a surge of food and medical aid will be rushed into Gaza to help stabilize the area and help the approximately 2 million Gazans in need of food.

But as the two-year war draws to a close, some are left to wonder whether a permanent peace is possible, particularly after a nearly incomprehensible trauma has been inflicted upon millions, and what will need to be done to come to a lasting agreement.

Ryan Crocker, who served as the U.S. ambassador for six nations in the region, told The Spokesman-Review that if the agreement results in the release of Israeli hostages, “it will be a huge achievement, without question.”

“That doesn’t mean that the rest of this agreement is going to easily fall into place, if at all, but an end of the hostage crisis in itself would be a huge achievement,” Crocker said.

Should the prisoner and hostage agreement be implemented, Crocker emphasized that achieving the comprehensive peace envisioned by President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan will require significant and persistent U.S. effort.

“This agreement does not solve the Israeli problem of an enduring Hamas presence, and it doesn’t solve the Hamas problem of an ongoing Israeli occupation,” Crocker said. “The only way we’re going to get to phase two is the way we got to Phase 1: through sustained, high-level engagement by the president himself and his key negotiators.”

Ultimately, though, Crocker said the changes needed to establish a long-lasting agreement will need to come from within the Palestinian and Israeli people.

“We can be a catalyst, but we can’t be a creator,” Crocker said.

While calls for a permanent peace agreement have persisted over the past two years, Shann Ray, a Gonzaga University professor specializing in forgiveness studies, said such agreements are rare.

“We always need high-quality peace deals, peace agreements, when any hotspot of extreme violence has occurred,” Ray said. “But those are very hard-won, and they’re tenuous.”

Previous attempts to settle armed conflict through peace agreements have achieved varying levels of success, Ray said, depending on whether each side feels the deal is a fair resolution, and how much “built vengeance is in the blood.”

“And then, what’s the nature of the agreement? And does agreement increase the vengeance in blood between the violent groups?” Ray said. “Or does it actually decrease it, in a legitimate, or authentic or real way?”

Sometimes, Ray said, sides will agree on what they can achieve, even if the agreement only results in a short-term benefit.

“So if this one achieves more aid, and the ability of people to actually live and recover, that’s a huge hope,” Ray said. “It’s very early, and so much will depend on what is set up in the future between Gaza, Palestine and Israel.”

However, given the tension between Israel and Gaza, Ray said he would not anticipate that “this will ultimately go very well.”

“But, again, if it creates more aid in the moment, it’s excellent for humanity,” Ray said.

Ray pointed to a yearly ceremony to commemorate the Battle of the Big Hole, an 1877 attack by the U.S. Army on a sleeping Nimíipuu village that resulted in the deaths of 750 men, women and children, as an example of what steps can be taken to come to a healing, particularly when the incident is a part of a broader power dynamic.

As part of the healing, the Nez Perce tribe holds a yearly commemoration at the site of the massacre, which includes inviting descendants of the perpetrators to walk hand in hand at dawn with lanterns to gather in a healing circle of forgiveness.

“I don’t see that kind of thing being very available right now in the Israel-Gaza idea because of the intensification of all of the killings, deaths and state-sponsored famine,” Ray said. “So it’s just always so complex.”

Reporter Orion Donovan Smith contributed to this story.