Analysis: Eastern Washington, Idaho must string together wins to reach FCS playoffs
All 12 Big Sky football teams have completed their bye weeks, and with everyone yet to play five games in the regular season, the paths toward the postseason are coming into focus.
Recognized as one of the top two conferences in the Football Championship Subdivision, the Big Sky has placed four or five teams in the 24-team playoffs each of the last four seasons.
With four losses already, Eastern Washington (3-4, 2-1 Big Sky) has little margin over its last five games if it hopes to earn a playoff bid for the first time since 2021. But consecutive victories over Portland State and Idaho, two teams that are likely eliminated from the postseason consideration already, has given the Eagles a boost heading into Saturday’s game at Weber State.
“Time will tell,” EWU head coach Aaron Best said Tuesday of any momentum from the 21-14 victory over Idaho. “The next game is the biggest game. It doesn’t matter who you face. It’s the biggest game of the year, the next game.”
The simplest way for Eastern to get back to the playoffs is to win its final five games. Other Big Sky teams have more margin, some sit where the Eagles do, and a few have resumes beyond hope of repair this season.
Here’s a look, then, at how many wins each team likely needs to punch a ticket for the playoffs. Rankings in the polls aren’t here because when it comes time to make these decisions, the playoff committee doesn’t look at the polls.
It does, however, primarily consider a team’s record, strength of schedule, Regional Advisory Committee rankings and feedback, and what the committee members see themselves on video. (The Big Sky’s representative on the committee is Montana State athletics director Leon Costello.)
Montana (7-0, 3-0 Big Sky), UC Davis (5-1, 3-0) and Montana State (5-2, 3-0): Two more wins
The Grizzlies have taken advantage of a home-heavy schedule – they’ve played outside Washington-Grizzly Stadium just once – by doing what they should in that situation: win. They play on the road Friday (at Sacramento State), then at Weber State and, later, at Portland State. Two more wins are necessary because one came over Division II Central Washington, which the committee doesn’t count, but another over a 5-2 North Dakota team should come in handy should the Grizzlies stumble in November.
No doubt the Aggies would rather this not matter, but their season-opening game was ruled a no contest due to inclement weather. How the playoff committee views that game, in which the Aggies led Mercer 23-17 when the game was canceled with 7:46 left, might end up moot if the Aggies win three of their last five. But it’s entirely possible a 7-4 Davis squad would be chosen for an at-large bid.
Montana State’s two losses are to Oregon and South Dakota State (7-0), so even if the Bobcats only win two more games, they would be candidates for the rare seven-victory bid.
Sacramento State (4-3, 2-1) and Northern Arizona (4-3, 1-2): Four more wins
Neither of these teams has a signature nonconference victory that would boost a seven-win resume, so four will probably be necessary. The Hornets still have to play Montana, Eastern Washington and UC Davis (as well as Idaho and Portland State, two teams without a conference victory).
Northern Arizona, which ended a playoff drought last year, missed out on opportunities this month to earn a signature conference victory by losing to Montana State and UC Davis. But the Lumberjacks host three of their last five, sandwiched between games at Idaho State (on Saturday) and at Weber State (Nov. 22).
Eastern Washington (3-4, 2-1), Cal Poly (4-3, 1-2), Northern Colorado (3-4, 1-2) and Weber State (3-4, 1-2): Four or five more wins
Without a doubt, if any of these teams were to finish 5-0, it would be in the playoffs. One of Cal Poly’s victories came over Western Oregon, which, like Montana’s over Central Washington, doesn’t count on its resume. The other three teams’ resumes don’t carry such asterisks.
The uncertainty here accounts for remaining opponents. The Bears could still pick up victories over likely playoff teams UC Davis and Montana State. The Wildcats could do so as well, with Montana and Montana State still on their schedule. Cal Poly hosts Montana State this week, and Eastern plays at Montana on Nov. 8.
A win over any of those teams could be enough to get one of these teams in with seven victories. But the best bet for them all is to run the table, something only one of them could realistically do, given their remaining head-to-head matchups.
Idaho State (2-5, 1-2) and Idaho (2-5, 1-2): Five more wins
It would be disingenuous to say that these teams are absolutely eliminated, given that a seven-win team reaching the playoffs isn’t without precedent. And, in the hypothetical, either of these teams finishing 6-2 in the Big Sky would include victories over UC Davis and Northern Arizona.
Portland State (0-7, 0-3): Eliminated
It is not disingenuous to say that the Vikings are eliminated. But, consecutive victories over Idaho, Sacramento State, Cal Poly, Montana and Northern Colorado would give Bruce Barnum’s squad something to build on heading into 2026.