‘Always be skeptical’; Crocker, local experts warn U.S.-Israeli military action could have broad, hard to discern impacts

Regional foreign policy experts warn that the fallout of the joint strikes on Iran by U.S. and Israeli forces early Saturday morning could be far reaching, and tough to discern in the coming days, weeks, months and years.

The ramp up of tensions in the Middle East following the attack and subsequent counter attacks by Iran on neighboring gulf states could threaten American assets and servicemen across the region, dwindle global oil supplies and foster further terrorist activity. 

Spokane Valley resident Ryan Crocker, former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait and Lebanon said in an interview Saturday that he, however, can not envision any scenario in which Congress or President Donald Trump put boots on the ground as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.

“If Iraq and Afghanistan turned into ugly quagmires for us, well, welcome to the big leagues,” Crocker said. “Iran is triple, quadruple the population of either of those two countries, with very inhospitable terrain and a history of reacting badly to foreign interventions.”

Crocker said he was not surprised by the military action when news broke on the West Coast late Friday night. It was clear to him that Iran would not come to the table and reach an agreement with the U.S. regarding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and the boosting of U.S. forces last week signaled action was imminent.

The airstrikes are an effort to spark regime change in Iran and cripple its offensive capabilities, as Trump signaled in his video posted to his social media site Truth Social announcing the military action, in which he calls on the nation’s population to “take over your government” once the bombs stop falling.

It’s yet to be seen if Iranian nationals will heed the call, or what would take the regime’s place in the event of a rebellion, said Washington State University Professor Lawrence Pintak, a former longtime Middle East correspondent for CBS and author of “America and Islam: Soundbites, Suicide Bombs and the Road to Donald Trump.”

“They know what going into the streets means; they’ve seen it in the thousands of Iranians who were killed over the last couple of months,” Pintak said.

Iran, like other gulf states where American military action has been carried out in the name of regime change, is a complex society, Pintak said. Some may celebrate if reports of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are verified. Others may protest the foreign involvement, and the American-Israeli strikes as reports of mass civilian casualties start to surface.

There’s also no telling what may take the place of the Khamenei regime if it is in fact toppled, Pintak said. Iran has operated under a theocracy for nearly 40 years, and internal power struggles could take years to play out. The same security apparatus used to carry out attacks against protestors in recent months will still be there, regardless of whether Khamenei is, he said.

“If we look at history, it is rare that a tyrant is overthrown and democracy wins the day,” Pintak said. “He or she is usually replaced by another tyrant of a different color, a different political stripe, but another tyrant.”

Other implications of the conflict are more clear. The region relies heavily on the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz to bring about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products to the global market each day, roughly 20% of the world’s supply, according to the U.S Energy Information Administration.

“A blockage of any length could severely disrupt global oil supplies and global financial markets,” Crocker said.

Iranian forces may also inflict significant damage on U.S. bases and servicemen in the region in retaliation for the attack, which Crocker said he “must assume” was accounted for before action was taken. That retaliation could escalate beyond U.S. military bases in neighboring gulf states, particularly if Khamenei’s death is confirmed, Pintak said.

“If the regime is in dire straits, if it feels that it’s in an existential crisis, will it then just start striking oil installations and other kinds of infrastructure in the surrounding Arab states, and we find ourselves in an actual regional war that goes beyond just the U.S., Israel and Iran?” Pintak said.

Longer term, Pintak said he will be looking to see if the conflict brings about a new wave of terrorism and anti-American sentiment. American presidents have a bad habit of not learning from recent history, he said, noting how U.S. involvement in Lebanon helped birth Hezbollah, involvement in Iraq led to the Islamic State group and in Afghanistan, refueled the Taliban.

“For the average Iranian, they may be hugely anti-regime, but when they see American bombs falling around them, and according to reports, for example, all the kids in a school dying in an Israeli bomb, that also shapes how they look at the U.S. and how they look at this intervention,” Pintak said.

Crocker and Pintak warned against putting too much stock in initial reports as the conflict continues to develop. Facts can be hard to discern during conflict, and there’s a lot left to be seen as it progresses.

“The smoke and dust of war, of course, confuse everything,” Crocker said. “I think it’s important that we not over read any given report as defining the moment or the outcome of the war or anything else.”

For Inland Northwest residents interested in having a broader understanding of the conflict, Pintak advised following multiple media outlets. American organizations like the New York Times provide a different perspective than those based in the region, like AlJazeera. Social media may provide first-hand perspective, but is also where misinformation can run rampant as political actors spin narratives supporting whatever their desired outcome may be.

“Be skeptical of all of the reporting you’re seeing, not because journalists are making it up, but in the fog of war, we don’t really know what’s happening,” Pintak said. ”Whether that’s today, this weekend, or whether that’s in a month when you’re reading about internal divisions within the Iranian regime. Always be skeptical.”