Seahawks at 49ers: How to watch, keys to the game and prediction

From the moment the Seahawks’ schedule was unveiled in May, you somehow knew the regular-season finale at San Francisco would have pretty significant meaning.

Few might have imagined just how much.

All that’s on the line for Seattle is its first NFC West title since 2020 – which would be the 12th in franchise history in a season in which they are celebrating their 50th anniversary – and the No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs.

Seattle has had the one seed just three other times – 2005, 2013 and 2014. All three times Seattle used the benefit of two home playoff games to advance to the Super Bowl.

Seattle would also get a week off to rest beginning the playoffs with a divisional game the week of Jan. 17-18 – which would be the first home playoff game for the Seahawks with fans able to attend since Jan. 17, 2017, a divisional round game against the Lions. (Seattle’s most recent home playoff game following the 2020 season came during the COVID-19 pandemic and no fans were in the stands).

Lose, and the Seahawks don’t get a banner to hang or a week off. The Seahawks would be the five seed and fly home from the Bay Area on Saturday night to begin preparing for a trip to either Carolina or Tampa Bay for a wild-card playoff game next week. Then the Seahawks would have to play two more games, likely on the road, to get to the Super Bowl.

“It’s down to it,” defensive tackle Jarran Reed said this week. “Everything is on the line right now and we know that. Like I said, we’re not making it bigger than any other game that we’ve had because overall, we’re just going to be right here. We want to be 1-0 and be where our feet are.”

Here’s a closer look at the matchup:

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

When, where: 5 p.m., Saturday, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara.

TV: ABC/ESPN; Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (analyst), Laura Rutledge, Lisa Salters (sidelines).

Most recent game in series: The 49ers scored the winning TD with 1:34 left on a Brock Purdy 4-yard pass to Jake Tonges and then held off a late Seattle rally to beat the Seahawks in the season opener 17-13 on Sept. 7. The 49ers have won six of the last seven games in the series, but Seattle emerged victorious last year at Levi’s Stadium 20-17 on a 13-yard TD run by Geno Smith with 12 seconds remaining. Seattle leads the all-time series 30-23.

Point spread: Seahawks favored by 1.5.

Key injuries: The Seahawks will again be without starting left tackle Charles Cross, out with a hamstring injury. He will be replaced by Josh Jones, listed as questionable with ankle/knee issues but trending toward playing. Safety Coby Bryant (knee) is doubtful and if he can’t go will again be replaced by Ty Okada.

The 49ers listed tight end George Kittle (ankle) as questionable but he is expected to play. More in doubt is the status of starting left tackle Trent Williams, listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Last week’s games: The Seahawks improved to 13-3 with a 27-10 win at Carolina while the 49ers moved to 12-4 with a 42-38 victory over Chicago in a game not decided until Bears QB Caleb Williams threw incomplete in the end zone on a play from the 2-yard line as time ran out.

The big story: Can the Seahawks live up to the moment?

This feels like the most consequential game for the Seahawks since 2014, given all that can be gained with a win. But playing a road game for a second straight week, despite Seattle’s success away from home, and the surroundings will be a challenge.

And it’s the 49ers who have more experience in this setting, with many of their players having been part of the Super Bowl team two years ago. Seattle needs to match the 49ers’ intensity and that of the crowd from the opening kickoff.

Key matchup: Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir.

Lenoir, a fifth-year player out of Oregon, laid down something of a gauntlet earlier this week when he said he’d like the challenge of guarding Smith-Njigba – the NFL’s leading receiver with 1,709 yards – one-on-one as much as possible.

“Hopefully I get to, you know, shadow JSN,” Lenoir, who is rated 61st out of 113 cornerbacks in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, said this week to reporters. “I’m ready for this; I hope he’s ready.”

There’s no reason to think JSN won’t be. Lenoir’s words, at the least, seemed to bring back memories of what the Seahawks-49ers rivalry was like back in the LOB days.

Key player: Quarterback Sam Darnold.

If you’re reading this, you surely already know the narrative around Darnold and how his propensity for turnovers – he has an NFL-high 20 coming into the game – is regarded by many as the biggest impediment between Seattle and a legit Super Bowl run.

Seattle’s managed to get this far despite a minus-four turnover differential, worse than all but eight other teams, one of whom is the 49ers at minus-four. But that’s a tough road to keep walking, and improving the turnover differential starts with Darnold.

It should help that the 49ers’ defense has been ravaged by injuries with two of the team’s best pass rushers – defensive end Nick Bosa, who forced Darnold’s fumble that ended the first matchup, and defensive lineman Mykel Williams – now on IR. The 49ers are also without star linebacker Fred Warner, also on season-ending IR.

Key stat: Third-down conversion percentage.

It’s hard to find a better matchup than this.

Seattle is first in the NFL on defense in denying third-down conversions at 32.4% (73-225), while the 49ers are the best at converting them on offense at 51% (104-204).

The 49ers got the better of it in the first game, converting on 7 of 14 third downs as well as 2 of 2 on fourth downs.

The biggest key to the 49ers’ third-down success has been the play of quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy has completed 51 of 71 passes on third downs, 71.83%, for 590 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception, a passer rating of 128.3.

Asked why he thinks the 49ers are so good on third down, Seattle defensive coordinator Aden Durde said: “Utilizing matchups, understanding that they’re very good at understanding what you could be in, how you can be in it, and attacking your weaknesses. They do a great job.”

Two other things to watch

Can the Seahawks get off to better starts than the last few weeks? The Seahawks have been tied twice and trailed twice at halftime in their last four games before rallying in the second half to win.

But at some point that could be a hard formula to replicate. The issues have been mostly on offense. The Seahawks have scored just one offensive touchdown in the last four games. Seattle had just a field goal on a 40-yard drive to account for its scoring last Sunday at Carolina.

“In Carolina I didn’t like how we came out of the gate,” said offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. “We were not crisp enough, slow out of the huddle. Got to make improvements there going into this game.”

Can Seattle continue its historical road success? The Seahawks are a simply stunning 14-2 on the road the last two seasons, the two defeats coming last year at Detroit (42-29) and earlier this season against the Rams (21-19).

Seattle has a chance Saturday to join 12 other NFL teams for the most road wins in a single season with eight, a list that includes this year’s Patriots, who are 8-0 and are at home for their regular-season finale.

Prediction

Seahawks 27, 49ers 23: If Seattle’s defense and the 49ers offense basically cancel each other out, then the real key will be whether the Seahawks offense can take advantage of a struggling San Francisco defense. If Darnold can limit the mistakes, the Seahawks should be able to do just that and emerge with their biggest regular-season win in a decade.