Will Venezuela strike lower gas prices for Americans?

As policy experts continue to debate the ethical and legal ramifications of the weekend raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Americans may be worried about the effects to their own pocketbooks.

For now, experts say, don’t expect any changes when you fill up at the pump.

“Many folks are far too optimistic that this will have immediate and measurable effect,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “It is unlikely. It would take years and even then the impacts may be ‌more measured in pennies per gallon than dimes.”

Commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs agree, calling the outlook for prices “ambiguous” in the near ‌term in a research report published January 4.

“Production may edge ‌up slightly in the short-run, including in a scenario with a U.S.-supported government and full sanctions relief,” the Goldman team explained. “Alternatively, disruptions to Venezuela oil deliveries could continue and/or intensify in the short-run, for instance because Maduro’s cabinet has asserted its control.”

The Venezuelan leader and his wife arrived ​in New York on Jan 3. to face several criminal charges ‌after U.S. forces captured them in ⁠Caracas. President Donald Trump said in a news conference that “very large oil companies” will spend “billions of dollars” in Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves of ‌any nation worldwide.

“The oil business has been a total bust,” Trump said of Venezuela’s oil, which is produced and controlled by a government-run company. “They were pumping almost nothing in.”

“Very large U.S. oil companies” will “go in, spend ‌billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure,” and “start making money for the country,” Trump said.

But even under what GasBuddy’s De Haan called “the most optimistic timelines,” it will take years for oil supply to enter the world market. He and others wonder how much ‌incentive major oil companies have to ​even ‌tackle such a project, given the geopolitical risks and the steep costs to ramp up production.

Independent energy analyst Rachel Ziemba, who agrees major oil companies may hesitate, also notes that declines in the price of crude – the raw material for consumer products ‌like gasoline – are often not fully passed on to consumers. For example, crude prices were down nearly 20% in 2025, but gas prices fell less than 10%, she said.

On Jan. 5, crude prices were up ​about 1.5% after the weekend raid.

The Goldman analysts are forecasting only a $2 per barrel change either up or down, meanwhile, depending on whether the more optimistic or pessimistic scenario comes to pass. That represents only about a 4% change to their base case forecast of $56 a barrel for Brent crude, ⁠the world benchmark.

“This won’t be as smooth or easy as the administration is ​indicating,” Ziemba told USA TODAY.

The bottom line for consumers? “The potential for additional oil may stabilize ⁠oil in the years to come, but don’t expect gas price parties with a national average below $2/gal anytime soon,” De Haan said.