Climate Change Has Turned Greenland Into a Target for Trump

Greenland is warming much faster than the global average, and its expansive ice sheet has been shrinking for decades.

These shifts, driven by climate change, have made the vast island a more appealing acquisition target for the Trump administration.

Controlling Greenland, an idea that was regarded as a punchline among Trump’s own advisers during his first term, is now viewed within the White House as a real strategic objective. Stephen Miller, a Trump aide, asserted Monday that the U.S. had the right to “take” the territory, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that President Donald Trump planned to buy it from Denmark.

Greenlanders are not on board. Denmark’s prime minister has warned that military intervention would end the NATO alliance.

But why focus on the Arctic at all? Climate change is rapidly transforming Greenland, turning it into a geostrategic asset that could be key to future shipping routes and the race for mineral resources.

“Trump talks about climate change as a hoax, but it’s partly climate change that is fueling the growing interest in the region because it’s making it more accessible,” said Sherri Goodman, distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the Clinton administration.

Higher trafficAs northern ocean waters have become less difficult to navigate, the Arctic has seen an uptick in shipping traffic.

In theory, Arctic waters offer a big shortcut for vessels navigating between Asia and the United States or Europe, but ice and harsh conditions have long stood in the way. Russia has been developing the Northern Sea Route for commercial traffic, deploying icebreakers to help carve routes for cargo vessels in pursuit of what Andrew Kramer described in 2021 as a “massive toll road.”

In October, a Chinese container ship traveling along this route for the first time reached Britain in 20 days, roughly half the time it takes to make the journey using other routes, Reuters reported. The vessel carried solar panels and electric vehicles.

These shipping lanes could get easier to navigate in the future. “Some projections are that there could be ice-free summers across parts of the Arctic within the next 20 years or so,” Goodman said, adding that China has expressed hopes to take advantage of a “Polar Silk Road” through the region.

Perhaps eyeing these developments, Trump signed a memorandum in October authorizing the construction of up to four icebreakers. It cited “growing strategic competition, aggressive military posturing, and economic encroachment by foreign adversaries, all of which threaten U.S. interests in the Arctic.”

“We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security,” Trump said this month.

Mining opportunitiesGreenland sits atop vast stores of rare-earth minerals used to manufacture high-tech products like batteries and mobile phones. China dominates the global critical minerals industry, and Trump has made efforts to secure access to resources that will help develop a competitive supply chain.

Some of Trump’s allies have also invested in potential opportunities in the Arctic: Before his Senate confirmation, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick held a stake in a mining company with interests in Greenland through his financial firm, Kate Kelly reported. And Sam Altman, Jeff Bezos and Marc Andreessen, Silicon Valley moguls who donated directly or indirectly to Trump’s reelection efforts or inaugural committee, all have financial ties to a company that has explored mining in the region.

While climate change may eventually make it easier to mine in Greenland, hopefuls have found it exceedingly difficult thus far. As the Times reported last year, dozens of exploratory projects pepper the island, but Greenland has only two active mines.

Greenland has fewer than 100 miles of roads, and only 57,000 residents. Some areas are accessible for only a few months at a time.

“It’s not clear any of these projects in Greenland are financially viable right now,” Goodman said. “But that doesn’t mean they won’t be viable decades into the future. And if you put your New York real estate hat on, the president and his son and others in the mix see these as long-term development projects.”

Local pushbackAttempts to extract natural resources from Greenland face local political opposition in addition to logistical and legal hurdles.

An Australian mining operation with Chinese backing spent $100 million to develop a project only to see the territory’s governing party kill it amid fierce opposition from a neighboring town, the Times reported.

Greenland has banned uranium mining, a move that has complicated efforts to extract other resources because uranium is often found alongside rare-earth minerals. The ban is currently facing legal challenges. The territory has also stopped trying to produce oil, citing a lack of commercial success and environmental risks.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.