It’s the middle of winter, but drought covers the U.S. That’s concerning

January is known for cold weather, snow and a lack of daylight. It’s not known for drought.

But that’s what’s going on across much of the U.S.

More than two-thirds of the country is facing unusual dryness or drought, stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the East Coast, touching every state except California. The stretch since July has been the driest period nationally since 2012.

The drought has come with record-low snowfall and unseasonably warm conditions across the West – including Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. In these parts of the country, snowpack typically develops during the winter months – helping drive the economy – and then melts in the spring, which is key for water supply and lowering wildfire risk, as it keeps landscape wetter and less prone to fire. But winter conditions so far have not cooperated.

Scott Fitzwilliams, formerly the head of Colorado’s White River National Forest, – a swath of more than 2.2 million acres in the state that includes world-class ski resorts such as Vail and Aspen – said he’s worried about the economic effects: Poor conditions could hit mountain resorts and their connected businesses. “Skiers get ornery when they don’t have their powder,” he said.

He also fears the worst is yet to come.

“It’s terrifying to think of the upcoming fire season,” said Fitzwilliams, who retired less than a year ago. “Forest managers, water managers and firefighters are all going to be on pins and needles come spring.”

Just as they take a long time to develop, droughts can take a long time to recover from – and this situation looks as if it will get worse before it gets better as concerns about water supplies mount.

Where droughts are hitting hardest

This drought is widespread.

States with the highest percentage of area affected by severe drought (Level 3 out of 5) include Georgia, Maine, North Carolina, Florida, New Mexico and Virginia – illustrating how this drought stretches far and wide, including in places that may not first come to mind when thinking about drought.

In the West, one of the states hardest hit has been Utah. About 93% of the state is experiencing moderate, severe or extreme drought, and temperatures so far this winter have been nearly 10 degrees above average.

“We had green grass and weeds growing in our city even into January, leading me to be more worried about mowing instead of shoveling snow. I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Jon Meyer, assistant state climatologist based at the climate center in Logan, Utah.

Nearby states including New Mexico, where almost 72% of the land is covered by drought, Colorado, Arizona and Wyoming aren’t faring much better.

In Colorado and Utah, recent precipitation has come in the form of rain, which evaporates quickly and could spell a dry, smoky spring.

Meyer said that Utah, despite solid snowfall in recent winters, could be at a turning point this spring between disruptive but manageable drought impacts or sliding deeper into more serious impacts on communities and their ability to conduct seasonal operations.

“It feels like our water savings accounts are dwindling,” he said.

While snowfall has been meager in Utah, the unusual presence of winter rain has been the hot topic in the community. This rain has helped to ramp up soil moisture across the state, which could slightly temper wildfire risks.

The snow drought also comes as the Colorado River basin, the water source for much of the region, is running low and heading toward a crisis.

“Water in the West is everything,” added Fitzwilliams.

In the Plains and East, agriculture can be affected due to a lack of soil moisture for crop production, said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist who wrote the most recent U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

In the southern half of Virginia, Pugh said, a short-term drought had caused low soil moisture and declining stream flows. Drought currently covers three-quarters of the state. Conditions had also worsened around D.C. and Baltimore as precipitation deficits increased.

The event is also not confined to the contiguous states: Drought covers more than 68% of Hawaii.

What it will take to end the drought

Quite simply, precipitation is needed to break this long-standing spell of dryness.

Long-term outlooks that extend into February show little relief for the Intermountain West, where droughts are most likely to continue or intensify.

While Meyer said that he’s not completely panicked about water supplies in Utah – being at the 11th percentile of historical observations – the state will need “quite the parade of storms to play catch-up,” and he’s not seeing large-scale relief ahead.

The South and East may fare a bit better. Cold air from a returning polar vortex pattern could clash with moisture emerging from the Gulf of Mexico before the end of January, bringing the chance for a few storms.

But given precipitation shortfalls of more than 10 inches in several Southern and Eastern states since midsummer, a lot of moisture is needed to ease the drought.

If there is going to be improvement, the coming months are the prime time for a rebound, said Pugh.

“This is a really good time of year for drought recovery, because with temperatures remaining cool, you have lower evaporation rates,” he added.

Why has it been so dry?

The causes of such a widespread drought are multifaceted, but a few climate drivers have been particularly influential.

Five of the past six years have featured La Niña conditions, a pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean marked by cooler-than-average sea temperatures.

These cool seas can weaken the southern branch of the jet stream as it blows into the U.S., leading to lower moisture availability for storms, especially across the Southern tier of states during winter – and reducing odds for nor’easters, storms that bring snow to the East Coast.

At the same time, a persistent marine heat wave in the North Pacific Ocean has caused the northern branch of the jet stream to blow strong and farther north, more frequently toward Alaska and occasionally toward the Pacific Northwest and California, where December brought destructive flooding events.

Marine heat waves are becoming more common and intense amid a warming climate.

Because the northern and southern jet streams are clashing over the country less frequently, there have been fewer storms – especially in the South and East.

A developing El Niño could change the jet streams – and patterns of rain and snow – across the U.S., but not before droughts intensify further.