USMNT vs. Australia World Cup mega-preview: Odds, analysis and more
After a dream start to open the tournament, the United States is set for its second match at the 2026 World Cup, this time against Australia on Friday in Seattle .
The U.S. began with a statement win, 4-1 over Paraguay, last week to kick things off. It was the team’s best performance under head coach Mauricio Pochettino, considering the stage, stakes and implications, and arguably one of the best ever by an American men’s team at a World Cup.
The U.S. looks to keep that momentum rolling against Australia, but it won’t be easy. It’s a top-of-the-table clash in Group D after Australia beat Turkey 2-0. The European side’s captain, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, dismissed the Socceroos before the game, claiming his side would dominate the game. The U.S. players aren’t making that mistake despite some outside voices injecting some bulletin-board fodder into the mix.
Whichever side wins this game will close in on winning the group, and thus a more favorable knockout round path. Here’s a closer look at the match.
What you need to know about the matchup
Group D: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Australia (FIFA ranking 27)
Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle.
Date: Friday
Kickoff: Noon
U.S. pathway: Qualified automatically as a host nation. Drawn from Pot 1.
Australia pathway: Australia finished second behind Japan in the third round of Asia qualifying with a record of five wins, four draws and one defeat. Drawn from Pot 2.
Odds
After the dominant performance against Paraguay, it’s not surprising the U.S. is a solid favorite against Australia. The Americans are -165 to get a win on DraftKings and BetMGM and -170 on FanDuel.
A draw (between +310 and +350) is viewed as more likely than an Australia win. The Socceroos are around 4-to-1 to win.
That means the odds are saying the U.S. has a roughly 60% chance to win and around an 80% chance to get at least a point from this match.
The Athletic’s projection tool is currently giving the U.S. a 97% chance of advancing from the group and a 63% chance of winning it. A win would assure the Americans advance and give them an 84% chance of winning Group D.
A draw drops the those chances to 56% and a loss to 4%. Even with a loss, the model gives the U.S. an 86% chance of advancing.
If U.S. beats Australia it will be because…
The cohosts recreate a similar performance to the one against Paraguay. It cannot be understated how perfect the first 45 minutes were, in particular.
The U.S. raced out to a 3-0 lead and completely suffocated its opponents. The game was won in the midfield, as the trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman overwhelmed the Paraguay engine room, allowing more space for Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun to do damage.
“They dominated tactically, technically and physically,” Paraguay head coach Gustavo Alfaro said after his team’s loss to the U.S. “They create a pentagon in midfield … they have a solution to every problem.”
When in the most advantageous positions, Pulisic and Balogun did indeed make their opponents pay. The counterpress was electric. Even when possession was lost, Paraguay couldn’t keep the ball.
The combo of overloading the midfield, keeping possession, counterpressing swiftly and making chances count is where this game is won.
Pulisic’s status will be important, and the U.S. would surely rather he’s available to start, but even if he isn’t, the attacking group is deep. Any one of Gio Reyna, Tim Weah or Alejandro Zendejas would be a fine replacement.
If U.S. draws it will be because…
Australia is a quality opponent. It will not be easy to play against and showed against Turkey how dangerous it can be in transition with Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, plus the group is strong on set pieces, with 6-foot-6 center back Harry Souttar literally looming large.
That’s a dangerous mix. Even if Australia just defends better than Paraguay, doesn’t get picked apart and is more comfortable defending in their own penalty box, the U.S. will struggle. That plus a set piece could easily be a draw.
Goalkeeping is a strength for Australia, even if it came in the form of a surprise. Picked over captain Maty Ryan, Patrick Beach had a man-of-the-match performance in his World Cup debut, making eight saves en route to a clean sheet.
“He came out today, and he’s shown the world what he can do,” Irankunda said. “He made a lot of important saves, and if it wasn’t for him, the score could have been different. But he saved us.”
If U.S. loses to Australia it will be because…
Australia is likely to sit deep like Paraguay but will defend better than the South American opponents. More importantly, the Aussies have proven they’re more dangerous in transition. Where the U.S. turns over the ball is important. If it’s a ball forward or a shot that goes out for a goal kick, the U.S. can in turn win possession in dangerous spots.
If the U.S. loses the ball in bad ways – slow sideways passes, a big switch when runners go forward, a bad cross into the goalkeepers hands – then Australia will be extremely dangerous. If Australia can string together more passes to break the press, the tenor of the game changes.
Australian center backs will be a handful in defending U.S. crosses and on attacking set pieces. They can put the U.S. back on their heels.
Physicality will play a key role in this game. Pochettino challenged his team to fight back in the U.S.’s 2-1 friendly over Australia in the fall. If the Americans get bullied out of the game, Australia will have the edge.
Key injuries
All eyes are on Pulisic and his left calf. He has trained separately all week, in a “modified” manner, according to U.S. Soccer, which maintains he is day-to-day.
Predicted lineups
United States (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A. Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Reyna; Balogun
Australia (5-4-1): Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Metcalfe, O’Neill, Okon-Engstler, Irankunda; Toure
Schedule and TV information
USMNT vs. Australia in Seattle: June 19, noon on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)
Next U.S. matchUSMNT vs. Turkey in Los Angeles: Thursday, 7 p.m. on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)