The No. 1 seeds, Miami’s fate, Pac-12 legacy woes, injury issues and mid-major math | Selection Sunday preview
After a riveting regular season and fortnight of conference tournaments, Selection Sunday takes center stage with 68 seeds and 32 first-round matchups in the balance – for what might be the final time.
College basketball’s power brokers are mulling whether to expand March Madness to 76 teams, a move that would substantially lower the threshold for inclusion and alter the dynamics of the opening week.
Instead of the First Four, the tournament would begin with a First 12.
Executives must commit to expansion this spring in order to implement the change for next season, according to NCAA president Charlie Baker, who supports the move.
“From my point of view, the more teams we can get into the tournament and make it work logistically and mathematically, the better,” Baker said last month. “It gives more kids the opportunity to experience that.”
It would also provide more teams with double-digit losses a chance to compete, thereby offering job security (and performance bonuses) to head coaches and athletic directors in the power conferences.
From a competitive standpoint, there is no need to expand. The quality of play at the top of the sport was superb this season – we’ll address the tournament’s likely No. 1 seeds momentarily – but the bubble is softer than it has been in years.
A slew of candidates for the final at-large bids lost ignominiously in their conference tournaments, leaving the selection committee to identify the one-eyed teams in the kingdom of the blind.
How many will represent the power conferences?
How many will be mid-majors?
Will the West Coast be a factor?
And how will the committee account for season-ending injuries to star players?
Here’s a preview of what to expect at 3 p.m. (CBS):
The No. 1 seeds
Three of the top seeds locked up their spots before conference tournaments began and will lord over the regions closest to their campuses.
Arizona will be placed in the West (San Jose), with Michigan in the Midwest (Chicago) and Duke in the East (Greenville, South Carolina).
The final No. 1 seed likely will go to Florida despite a lopsided loss in the SEC tournament semifinals. The Gators would sit atop the South (Houston).
The real drama will play out a few seed lines below.
Rarely has the difference between No. 3 and No. 4 seeds loomed as large as it does this year: The former avoid meeting the No. 1s until the Elite Eight, while the latter must face the No. 1s in the Sweet 16.
The issue could impact Gonzaga. If the Zags are placed on the No. 3 line in the West, they would not face Arizona until the Elite Eight. If they are handed a No. 4, their showdown with the Wildcats would unfold in the Sweet 16.
(Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd is a former Gonzaga assistant under Mark Few.)
The West is less
Only two former Pac-12 members, Arizona and UCLA, are expected to participate in the tournament following a disappointing season for the legacy schools. (Stanford has the slimmest of chances to grab one of the final bids).
Look for the West Coast Conference to send three teams into the field (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara). The Mountain West could send two (Utah State, a lock, and San Diego State), plus the champions of the Big Sky (Idaho), Big West (Hawaii ) and Western Athletic (Cal Baptist or Utah Valley).
Add BYU to the tally (as an at-large team from the Big 12), and the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones will account for 11 of the 68 bids.
Not great.
Mid majors
The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC have steadily increased their dominance of the selection process in recent years, resulting in the marginalization of at-large teams from the mid-major conferences.
But a slew of upsets this week have changed the calculus.
As noted above, the West Coast Conference is tracking for two at-large bids (Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara). The Mid-American should have one (Miami). The Atlantic 10 will have at least one (Saint Louis) and possibly a second (VCU or Dayton). And the Mountain West could send one, as well (San Diego State).
And that’s a good thing, because it increases the likelihood of a Cinderella (or two) emerging from the opening weekend.
The Miami factor
Few topics have received more attention this week than the fate of Miami (Ohio). The RedHawks were 31-0 during the regular season, then lost their first game in the Mid-American Conference tournament and dropped into the at-large pool.
But because of an ultra-weak schedule, the RedHawks aren’t considered a lock for the field. Their exclusion would spark outrage throughout the sport.
Only three other teams have gone undefeated in the regular season this century (Wichita State in 2013-14, Kentucky in 2014-15 and Gonzaga in 2020-21). If the selection committee doesn’t reward Miami for winning at a historic level – regardless of its schedule or conference affiliation – the process is broken.
Our hunch: The RedHawks make the cut but are assigned a No. 11 seed and sent to the First Four in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Injured stars
You could create the core of an All-American team with players who likely will miss the tournament due to injuries:
Duke point guard Caleb Foster (foot), BYU wing Richie Saunders (knee), Texas Tech forward JT Toppin (knee) and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson (thumb).
All four teams are locks, but their seeds could be impacted. The selection committee will evaluate the teams based on their results with the rosters that will compete in the NCAAs.
For example, Texas Tech was 19-6 and headed for a top-four seed before Toppin, perhaps the best player in the Big 12, went down with a torn ACL in mid-February.
Without their star, the Red Raiders were 3-4 and suffered a lopsided loss to Iowa State in the conference tournament.
Don’t be surprised if they receive a No. 6 or 7 seed.