Idaho’s Brody Rowbury could be the next March Madness icon, but winning matters more to the ‘Meridian Jokic’ | NCAA Tournament notebook

Brody Rowbury didn’t intend to become a talking point on social media last Wednesday when he hit a pair of clutch 3-pointers in Idaho’s Big Sky Tournament title victory over Montana.

In fact, the big man from Meridian, Idaho, was just trying to break out of a slump that lasted the better part of two games due to foul trouble.

But when he hit his first triple nearly four minutes into the second half against the Grizzlies, the crowd at Idaho Central Arena in Boise went crazy. When he hit the second one with 8:35 remaining in the game to put the Vandals (21-14) up by double digits, some on the internet anointed him the next March Madness star.

“I know an NCAA tournament hero when I see one. Brody Rowbury has the stuff,” X user @BibsCorner posted.

“Idaho’s Brody Rowbury is a bulky 6-11 center with a bald spot who knocks down flat-footed 3-pointers. He is a readymade March Madness legend,” X user @billoram posted.

Rowbury said he has seen all the posts, but he also knows that to be a tournament hero, he and the Vandals need to succeed – starting Thursday evening when 15th-seeded Idaho will look to upset second-seeded Houston (28-6) in Oklahoma City at 7:10 p.m. PST on TruTV.

“I had a couple buddies and family friends send me stuff and different jokes they saw on social media,” Rowbury said. “It’s been funny to see and it all adds to the experience and we’re just ready to go because we want to back up all this stuff on the court.”

Rowbury, who came to Idaho this year after three seasons at Southeastern Louisiana, said that the experience of the past week has only helped himself and the team have a better understanding of how to tackle the challenge ahead of them.

“This last five-day stretch in Boise, we start playing better but didn’t quite shoot the ball very good,” Rowbury said. “So we haven’t quite reached our ceiling. But, you know, just finding ways to win in Boise has helped build our confidence. So we just got to go out there and let it rip.”

If Idaho can add its name to the historic list of tournament Cinderellas, Rowbury might just become the next midmajor cult hero alongside names like Max Abmas, Ali Faroukmanesh or Matt Santangelo.

Historic year for underdogs

As of Monday morning, 1, 2 and 3 seeds appear to be historic favorites according to betting lines.

All four No. 2 seeds opened as 20-point favorites for the first time since 1986, including Houston, which opened as 24.5-point favorites against the Vandals. The average spread in the 14 vs. 3 games is 19.5 points, while the average spread of the 4 vs. 13 games is 14.3 points – both of which are the largest recorded average spreads.

But that doesn’t mean the result is a forgone conclusion for Idaho.

There have been 11 upsets by No. 15 seeds against No. 2 seeds in tournament history, with the last one coming three years ago when Princeton toppled Arizona 59-55. The Tigers went on to beat seventh-seeded Missouri in the second round before losing to Creighton in the Sweet 16.

In 2022, 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s shocked Kentucky to begin its run to the Elite Eight. And in 2021, Oral Roberts upset Ohio State before reaching the Sweet 16.

How the stats stack up

Although the level of competition Idaho and Houston faced this season is different – the Vandals had the nation’s 198th-ranked strength of schedule compared to seventh for the Cougars – the two teams are comparable in a lot of statistical categories.

The Vandals hold the slight edge in both field-goal percentage (44.9% to 44.7%) and 3-point percentage (35.8% to 34.9%), along with taking around three more 3-pointers a game than the Cougars.

Idaho also outrebounded Houston on the season 37.1 to 36.7, with the teams splitting the advantage on the offensive glass – Houston grabs 13 to Idaho’s 10.6, and defensive side – Idaho leads 26.5 to 23.7. Idaho’s defensive rebounding mark is good enough for 45th in the country, while Houston is 36th in the nation in offensive boards.

From there the stats start to favor the second-seeded Cougars, with Houston holding the advantages in assists per game (14.6 to 12.6), steals (7.8 to 5.9), blocks (3.8 to 2.3) and turnovers committed (8.5 to 10.6).

The biggest advantage Houston holds though is on defense. The Cougars allow just 62.9 points per game, the second best mark in Division I. Idaho is 137th in the nation, allowing 72.6 points per game.

As far as individuals go, the Vandals are balanced on offense with Jackson Rasmussen leading the way at 13.8 points per game. Kolton Mitchell, Biko Johnson and Isaiah Brickner also score in double figures for Idaho. Houston is led by guard Kingston Flemings at 16.4 points, but Emanuel Sharp is right behind him at 15.3.