Women’s March Madness 2026 upset picks: 10 most likely first-round stunners | Analysis

Good news for women’s college basketball in general has been terrible for NCAA Tournament underdogs in particular. As public attention keeps rising and more resources keep flowing into the sport, perennial powerhouses have developed around the country, creating a crop of national championship contenders that now goes considerably beyond the roster of old UConn-South Carolina-LSU suspects. This makes for a broader but top-heavy ruling elite.

UCLA, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU, West Virginia … the list goes on, and there are 18 teams at least 40 points per 100 possessions stronger than the D1 average, according to our model. But their kinds of talent and depth have not reached anywhere near the bottom of tournament brackets. The standard deviation, or spread, in power ratings among the top 68 women’s teams is 71% greater among women’s teams than on the men’s side. And the results are dire if you’re hoping to see broken brackets. Our upset projection model, Slingshot, estimates that no team seeded 13 or worse has even a 5% chance of pulling off a first-round upset this year.

That said, women can carry slingshots, too. In fact, in one possible matchup, Goliath vulnerability, long-shot traits and mis-seeding could combine for greater upset potential than anything we are likely to see in the men’s game.

Here are the top 10 upset odds for the women’s tournament, with special attention to a handful of contests our model thinks most merit your attention.

(11) Nebraska vs. (6) Baylor

Upset chance: 63.8%

(Note: Nebraska must win its First Four game against Richmond first).

Whoa, here’s a game where the so-called overdog (read: better-seeded team) would actually be likely to lose! Look, it’s been something of a down year for Baylor, which ranks as the No. 32 team in the nation according to our model. Nebraska is nine slots higher and 4.4 points per 100 possessions stronger. (And we are not outliers: Her Hoop Stats puts Nebraska at 27, Baylor at 31). The Huskers have been severely underrated by the NCAA Tournament selection committee and others because of an 18-12 record that included three losses by three or fewer points. They’re a classic “wounded assassin,” our name for a power conference team whose results don’t seem all that impressive but who remains dangerous at tournament time. Nebraska has dealt with injuries but still has a top-20 offense, and has posted a scoring margin per 100 possessions just about equal to Baylor’s – all while facing a significantly tougher schedule. The numbers like the lower seed here.

(11) Richmond vs. (6) Baylor

Upset chance: 41.1%

(Note: Richmond must win its First Four game against Nebraska first).

These really aren’t your mother’s Bears. Baylor ranks just 89th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding rate, and they’ve been sloppier with the ball than usual, committing turnovers on 19.6% of possessions (ranking: 176th). These are ominous signs for a Goliath trying to keep games safely in hand. And the Spiders not only hoist 3s more often than almost any team in the nation (45.2% of shots, ranking third), they are ninth-best at hitting them, too (37%). On the evening after St. Patrick’s Day, keep an eye on Maggie Doogan, one of three Richmond players hitting more than 40% of their 3s, and look out below! Of course, it’s cosmically unjust that Richmond and Nebraska will have to face each other just to make it into the first round. But we fans of women’s upsets have to work with what we’ve got.

(11) Rhode Island vs. (6) Alabama

Upset chance: 24.8%

The Tide don’t do the kinds of things that protect favorites from slipping – specifically, they rank an abysmal 224th in the country in offensive rebounding rate. The Rams make opponents play like they’re walking over broken glass, with a pace ranking 347th. Rhode Island has allowed 50 or fewer points in 13 of its 28 wins this year. It’s easy to see this game turning into a slog, and that favors the underdog.

(12) James Madison vs. (5) Kentucky

Upset chance: 18.5%

The Dukes can shoot (effective field goal percentage: 50.1%). They’re strong rebounders at both ends of the floor. They’re above average at both forcing and preventing turnovers. In other words, JMU has become highly efficient, with a scoring margin per 100 possessions that ranks 39th, while showing no evident weaknesses. There’s no red on their stat sheets; they’re good enough to scare any giant.

(11) Fairfield vs. (6) Notre Dame

Upset chance: 16.8%

Here’s our favorite underdog story in the country. Back in 2022, Fairfield, facing the daunting task of recruiting in UConn’s backyard, hired Carly Thibault-DuDonis, a coach half Geno Auriemma’s age who was smart enough to be the valedictorian of her college class. She built the Stags with the specific goal of landing a tournament berth above the 13-line, to escape facing first-round opponents who would have home-court advantage. She got them to play like smart long shots: Fairfield has replaced Florida Gulf Coast as the nation’s premier long-range shooting specialist, and this year has made more than 11 3s per game, the most in the country. And it’s all worked!

The Stags are coming off three straight seasons of 28 or more wins and three MAAC championships, and have landed an 11-seed. For all that, their reward is an under-20% chance of beating Notre Dame. Sigh. That’s just where the women’s game is at these days. But we’ll say this: While Hannah Hidalgo is as game-changing a player as you will see, the Irish rank just 251st in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Give Fairfield extra chances instead of grabbing your own missed shots, and you can easily land in hot water. Don’t sleep on this one.

Other picks

(12) Gonzaga vs. (5) Mississippi: Upset chance – 8.4%

(11) South Dakota State vs. (6) Washington: Upset chance – 7.6%

(13) Miami (Ohio) vs. (4) West Virginia: Upset chance – 4.5%

(12) Colorado State vs. (5) Michigan State: Upset chance – 3.9%.

(13) Western Illinois vs. (4) North Carolina: Upset chance – 2.4%

If Stephen F. Austin wins the 16-seed play-in game in Fort Worth 3, they will have a 0.05% chance of then beating Texas.

This field really is top-heavy.