Mariners’ Cal Raleigh should have another monster season in 2026 | Commentary

SEATTLE – If that was Cal Raleigh’s peak, that’s quite all right.

Sixty home runs. A second-place standing in the American League MVP race. The main character in the Mariners’ first division crown in 24 years – all while squatting behind the plate most the year.

It would be hard for most future first-ballot Hall of Famers to match a season like that, so few if anyone is applying the pressure for him to repeat that in 2026. The real question is – was that a true outlier last year, or can we expect Raleigh to remain one of the most dominant players in the game?

One could make a strong case that the 29-year-old entered 2025 as the most consistent player on the Mariners’ roster. Over the three previous seasons, he hit 27, 30 and 34 home runs, respectively, all while posting a WAR hovering between 3.4 and 4.7.

But he wasn’t Seattle’s best player. That title still belonged to center fielder Julio Rodríguez, the now three-time All-Star who has finished in the top seven in the AL MVP voting three times in his four-year career. Rodríguez’s numbers can be a little erratic, but he was still the Mariners’ main man.

Then Cal came along and put together what might have been the best M’s season of the 21st century. Was that the prelude to a series of legendary seasons to come? Or was that Roger Maris-esque exception in an otherwise solid but not quite sensational career?

Well, MLB Network elevated Raleigh to A-list level in its 2026 player rankings, listing Raleigh fourth in baseball behind Shohei Ohtani (1), Aaron Judge (2) and Bobby Witt Jr. (3). For reference, Cal was 59th in the rankings the previous season.

ESPN, meanwhile, had Raleigh seventh. Still quite bullish. In addition to his prowess at the plate – where he slashed .247/.359/.948 en route to a 9.1 WAR (FanGraphs) – the catcher didn’t allow one passed ball all season.

ESPN.com writer David Schoenfield’s prediction at the end of his blurb on Raleigh? Of the 23 players who have hit 50-plus home runs only once in their career, their average drop to their second-highest total is 13. Baking in a similar decline for Raleigh, let’s go with 47 home runs.

Baseball Reference is going a little lower. The website is projecting Raleigh to slug 39 home runs and add 21 doubles and 96 RBI s – which are 29 fewer than last season’s total. It also predicts 26 fewer walks and a batting average 11 points lower than last year’s. In other words: the second-best hitting season of his career, but a far cry from the 2025 heroics.

The truth is, there isn’t a lot of precedent for what Raleigh did last season. When Babe Ruth hit 60 homers, he already had seasons in which he smacked 54 and 59. When Judge hit 62, he had a 52-home run season five years prior. Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds’ single-season feats were all marred by PED use, which might make the aforementioned Maris – who’d never hit more than 39 home runs before blasting 61 of them in 1961 – the closest comparison from a slugging standpoint.

Of course, none of those guys was a catcher, which amplifies Raleigh’s value. Even so, what comes next is a great mystery.

The good news is that the Mariners are stacked in the lineup and on the mound. The team that fell one game shy of reaching its first World Series is primed for another run at the pennant and doesn’t require Raleigh to be an MVP finalist. But it would sure help if he were great once more. You know, an All-Star-caliber catcher whose contributions could be the difference between a playoff spot or not. We’ll see.

Personally? I predict another monster season. Maybe not 50 homers, but somewhere in the mid- to high 40s in a year when Raleigh retains his status as the Mariners’ top dog.

As out-of-nowhere as last season might have been, it didn’t seem fluky. His production had been steadily increasing over the three previous seasons, and his swing was on point all year long. No drop-off. No cliff. Just consistent, otherworldly hitting that continued through the postseason.

Raleigh is royalty here in Seattle right now. He’s a household name for baseball fans across the country, too. But sustained dominance and momentary dominance is the difference between star status and legendary status.

Folks were wowed by what Cal has done. I imagine they are just as intrigued about when he can do.