Best bets for the men’s Sweet 16 (Arizona, Houston, Purdue) after favorites dominate early rounds
Through 48 games and two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, a clear frontrunner has emerged: Team Chalk.
Betting favorites are 29-19 against the spread thus far, according to The Action Network – a stellar winning percentage of 60.4 that stands as the highest two-round figure since 2008.
The favorites were 39-9 straight up (i.e., on the scoreboard), which is the best in eight years.
It was not a good week for potential Cinderellas, betting underdogs or lower seeds.
Only one double-digit seed, No. 11 Texas, remains alive while 12 of the top 16 overall seeds have advanced to the regionals.
On a conference level, the Big Ten has performed best with six of its nine participants moving to the Sweet 16 and an 11-5 record against the spread, The Action Network reported.
Our instinct, based on years of tracking March Madness, is to pick both favorites and underdogs. As the record below indicates, we are paying for doubting the favorites.
First round: 1-7
Second round: 2-5
Five-star special: 3-12
All picks against the spread
Lines courtesy of VegasInsider.com
(All times Pacific)
No. 2 Purdue (-8.5) over No. 11 Texas (San Jose)
Tipoff: Thursday at 4:10 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The plucky little double-digit seed from Austin that won three games in five days now faces a next-level challenge with Purdue’s size and skill. Not only is this the end of the line for the Longhorns, it will be an emphatic elimination.
No. 1 Arizona (-8.5) over No. 4 Arkansas (San Jose)
Tipoff: Thursday at 6:45 p.m. on CBS
Comment: A dangerous matchup for the Wildcats, who face a championship-winning coach (John Calipari) with a stellar point guard (Darius Acuff Jr.) and the necessary size and athleticism to match Arizona’s frontcourt. We see no middle ground here: Either Arizona covers the spread handily or Arkansas wins the game outright.
No. 2 Houston (-2.5) over No. 3 Illinois (in Houston)
Tipoff: Thursday at 7:05 p.m. on TBS/truTV
Comment: Combine the home-crowd advantage with Houston’s relentless style of play and it’s difficult to see a path to victory for Illinois. For all their skill and efficiency, the Illini aren’t ready to withstand the Houston cyclone for 40 minutes – and perhaps not even for 30.
No. 5 St. John’s (+6.5) over No. 1 Duke (in Washington, D.C.)
Tipoff: Friday at 4:10 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The Red Storm is not fluid offensively, a standard warning sign for underdogs against No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16. But there’s a caveat: Rick Pitino is perhaps the greatest coach in the sport’s history. We have full faith and confidence in his ability to conjure a game plan that limits Duke’s advantages and accentuates the Red Storm’s strengths.
No. 2 UConn (-1.5) over No. 3 Michigan State (in Washington, D.C.)
Tipoff: Friday at 6:45 p.m. on CBS
Comment: This is effectively a toss-up, and we like the Huskies to advance. They have more scoring options in the final minutes of a close game, a dominant interior force (Tarris Reed) and, given the time to prepare, will craft a scheme to slow Michigan State star Jeremey Fears.
Straight-up winners: Purdue, Arizona, Houston, St. John’s and UConn
Five-star special: Houston. Don’t be surprised if the Cougars are considered the team to beat by the conclusion of the Sweet 16. Their upside is significant.