NBA expansion vote may be biggest step yet in possible Sonics return

NEW YORK — Down a hallway on the event level in Climate Pledge Arena is an unused space with the nameplate “NBA Locker Room” outside the door.

This is not a secret location. Tod Leiweke and others within the Kraken organization have pointed it out for years, back to when Climate Pledge was still a hole in the ground, the roof of the arena was essentially being held up by stilts and the location of that locker room was visible only on blueprints.

The idea of seeing an NBA team playing inside that gutted and rebuilt arena was a goal that goes back to the initial days of construction, when plans were being set. It was always on the wish list. But it remained that. A wish. With no guarantee to be fulfilled.

But here we are, eight years since construction began on the site of the former KeyArena, where the SuperSonics once soared, and the possibility of the NBA’s return has never felt as close. The idea of a team wearing the green and gold and occupying that currently empty locker room could take its most significant step toward reality Wednesday.

As Leiweke said this week, “I’ve always thought that our best days were in front of us. I’m here to reiterate, I believe our best days are in front of us.”

At a swanky midtown Manhattan hotel, NBA owners will wrap up two days of meetings Wednesday, capped by Commissioner Adam Silver’s news conference and recap of what took place during the league’s Board of Governors meetings.

The expectation is that owners will spend a significant amount of Wednesday discussing expansion. They are expected to vote on whether to give Silver the go-ahead to move forward on negotiations with potential ownership groups in Seattle and Las Vegas.

A vote of approval would jump-start talks and the buzz around expansion, and it could lead to a final decision as early as this summer on whether the league expands beyond its current 30 teams.

After so many previous votes on NBA matters going against the city of Seattle — whether it was the eventual move of the original franchise to Oklahoma City or later blocking the Sacramento Kings moving to Seattle — the thought of a vote triggering a potential return of a franchise to the city where it played for 41 years feels foreign.

Yet it also seems real and tangible; the franchise that left 18 years ago might be made whole again. It won’t be the same — for many people nothing can replace the sting of seeing the Sonics leave in 2008 and become the Thunder. Critics will always find reason to denounce the NBA or hedge on whether they’ll become invested in something new. They are entitled to those opinions based on history. Being weary of talk about the NBA and Seattle is baked into the DNA of local sports fans by now.

But for those who have held out hope and remained optimistic through the fits and starts, their patience seems on the verge of cashing a winning ticket.

“If you look at the stars, maybe they’re aligning,” Leiweke said.

Leiweke officially became CEO of One Roof Sports and Entertainment this week, the umbrella organization that includes the Kraken and Climate Pledge Arena, among the other holdings that are overseen by Kraken majority owner Samantha Holloway.

Though the umbrella organization has been in the works for some time, announcing it the week of the NBA meetings seemed to be a strategic decision to convey the message that the organization is ready to make a bid once the NBA gives the go-ahead for those conversations to begin.

When Leiweke spoke Monday about the organizational changes, he declined to get ahead of the NBA. But his optimistic tone and belief in Holloway to lead a bid could not be mistaken.

“She has meant a lot, and I think that I always speak in very expressive terms when it comes to her, but I’ve had the privilege of working for her now. I’ve worked for her as long as I worked for her dad,” Leiweke said. “She has moved here. She moved her family here. I think she knew that for this organization to be chartered properly, having the owner live in the town and care about the town — she’s here every day.”

Holloway and One Roof have remained tight-lipped about what their potential investor group would look like, but the expectation is they will be the lead bidders, and might be the only bidders, to engage with the NBA about a Seattle team. To date, they are the only group that has publicly expressed its intention to hold those talks.

Whether there’s another group lingering is one of a few unknowns that could be given clarity by Silver and the owners. Primary among those questions is the timeline, the expansion fee and whether this is an all-or-nothing proposition — two teams, no teams or the chance this could be a one-team or staggered expansion.

ESPN reported last week that the expected expansion fee would be in the $7 million-$10 billion range, which seems a little high. The Boston Celtics sold at a valuation of $6.1 billion, and the Los Angeles Lakers sold last year at a valuation of $10 billion. An expansion fee would seem to fall closer to the Celtics number than the Lakers number, especially in comparison with valuations in other sports. For example, the New York Yankees were recently valued at $9.4 billion by Sportico, the tops in baseball. Though they’re different leagues and play different amounts of games, should an expansion NBA team in Seattle or Las Vegas be valued higher than the Yankees?

But if multiple ownership groups get involved in the bidding in Seattle or Las Vegas, anything is possible on where the price could go. And ultimately, whatever price the league wants is the price that will need to be met to reach the finish line.

The timeline is the other pressing question. ESPN reported that 2028-29 is the target season for expansion teams to start playing. Assuming approval comes from the owners for Silver to start the conversations, that would leave a five-month window to vet the potential ownership groups, come to an agreement on a price and receive final ownership approval to make that 2028-29 start date a reality. Though it could be done in 18 months, industry sources have told The Times that a two-year window is the optimal time frame for getting the infrastructure in place to launch a team.

The owners will hold meetings during the NBA Summer League in July in Las Vegas and again in September before the start of next season. And though all the boxes could be checked by the time mid-July arrives, the league is also dealing with gambling probes, tanking issues, has the playoffs on the horizon and is trying to get its European branded league launched. If a final vote on expansion gets pushed to September, don’t be shocked.

Either way, the fact a final vote seems to be at the doorstep is a dramatic step from where things stood a year ago, when the NBA wasn’t ready to engage in the expansion conversation.

Now it’s front and center, and with it is the chance to revive a generation that’s gone without the NBA in Seattle.