Will it be a “trident up” or “trident down” season for the Seattle Mariners? With World Series expectations, the team certainly has the talent to build off last year’s ALCS run and clinch Seattle’s first-ever pennant. But there could bumps in the road, too.

Here’s a look at what to expect from the Mariners in 2026, including best-case and worst-case scenarios for the starting lineup, key bench players and pitching staff.

Cal Raleigh, C

2025 stats: .247 AVG | .359 OBP | .589 SLG | .948 OPS | 60 HR | 24 2B | 125 RBI | 188 K | 97 BB

Trident up: Raleigh runs away with the AL MVP award a year after falling just short and watching the honor go to Aaron Judge. Against the two AL West cites/teams where Raleigh didn’t get an MVP vote last year — Texas and Houston — Raleigh goes bonkers with 25 homers in 26 total games. Take that, voters.

Trident down: The wear of a stressful 2025 season, a long postseason run, playing in the World Baseball Classic and carrying the expectations of being a World Series contender into 2026 season catches up with him. The WBC tiff with Randy Arozarena lingers. The bat is colder from the right side. It’s not a bad season. But it’s not what the Mariners need, either.

Josh Naylor, 1B

2025 stats (with SEA): 54 games | .299 AVG | .341 OBP | .490 SLG | .831 OPS | 9 HR | 10 2B | 33 RBI | 19 K | 11 BB

Trident up: With his buddy Tucker (the M’s team dog) by his side, the success from last season rolls into 2026 where Naylor is an All-Star and provides the perfect balance to the M’s lineup. He also smiles a lot more.

Trident down: Naylor doesn’t smile much in his first full season in Seattle. He grows to dislike hitting at T-Mobile Park over a full season. His strikeouts are up. His hits are down. He does still hang out plenty with Tucker, though.

Cole Young, 2B

2025 stats: 77 games | .211 AVG | 4 HR | 7 2B | 24 RBI | .302 OBP | .305 SLG | .607 OPS

Trident up: Young blossoms in his first full season in the majors. His bat shines against both lefties and righties on the mound, and his defense takes a jump from last season. The combo of low strikeouts and high walks makes Young invaluable to turnover the bottom of the batting order.

Trident down: Young’s lack of playing time late last season ends up stunting some of his growth, leaving the M’s no choice but to send him to the minors.

J.P. Crawford, SS

2025 stats: 157 games | .265 AVG | 12 HR | 24 2B | 58 RBI | .352 OBP | .370 SLG | .722 OPS

Trident up: With free agency looming, Crawford shows he still has some pep in his legs and enough quality swings in his bat. His defense improves from last season, specifically his throwing, and the thought of moving a young prospect into his spot is put off until next season.

Trident down: Crawford’s shoulder issues in spring training are a lingering problem. By midseason, it becomes clear that a change needs to be made. The process of moving on from their longest tenured player is underway.

Brendan Donovan, 3B

2025 stats (with STL): 118 games | .287 AVG | 10 HR | 32 2B | 50 RBI | .353 OBP | .422 SLG | .775 OPS

Trident up: Landing Donovan before the season proves to be the move that elevates the Mariners to the top of the AL. He thrives playing both second and third base and becomes an elite table-setter as a leadoff hitter.

Trident down: While Donovan was lauded as a perfect fit for the M’s, it doesn’t turn out that way. The average and the on-base dips while the strikeouts climb, and he struggles in the field. It’s not a bad season but doesn’t match the excitement that came with his arrival.

Randy Arozarena, LF

2025 stats: 160 games | .238 AVG | 27 HR | 32 2B | 76 RBI | .334 OBP | .426 SLG | .760 OPS

Trident up: At age 31 and about to be a free agent, Arozarena puts together a season that immediately elevates him toward the top of the free-agent class. The tiff from the World Baseball Classic with Raleigh is quickly blown over and doesn’t linger. Randyland becomes an actual thing in the left-field stands during the pennant race.

Trident down: Randyland is shut down. His performance the first half of the season, plus the squabble with Raleigh necessitates a change. There is no contract-year bump that comes from the left fielder. Instead, the Mariners move Arozarena at the deadline in the hope of recouping a bat with more club control.

Julio Rodríguez, CF

2025 stats: 160 games | 32 HR | 31 2B | 95 RBI | .324 OBP | .474 SLG | .798 OPS

Trident up: If the AL MVP isn’t the guy behind the plate, then it ends up being the guy in center field. We’ve all been waiting and it comes to fruition in 2026. Rodríguez uses the WBC as the launchpad to a season where he becomes just the fourth primary center fielder to win AL MVP in the past 40 years.

Trident down: The WBC doesn’t provide an early spark to Rodríguez’s season. It’s another sluggish start. And like previous seasons, the turn of the weather is what finally gets Rodríguez started. By September, it still looks like a solid season from the center fielder but not as good as it could have been.

Victor Robles, RF

2025 stats: 32 games | 1 HR | 4 2B | 9 RBI | .281 OBP | .330 SLG | .611 OPS

Trident up: The 2025 postseason when he struggled badly at the plate lingers with Robles and he comes into 2026 intent on making sure his bat isn’t a liability. His offseason efforts work — Robles establishes himself as the everyday right fielder.

Trident down: The 2025 postseason when he struggled badly at the plate lingers with Robles and despite coming into 2026 intent on making sure his bat isn’t a liability, it doesn’t work. While he remains strong defensively, the bat becomes too much of a worry to stay in the lineup as a regular.

Rob Refsnyder, DH vs. LHP

2025 stats (with BOS): 70 games | .269 AVG | 9 HR | 12 2B | 30 RBI | .354 OBP | .484 SLG | .838 OPS

Trident up: Refsnyder turns into a perfect platoon option, and his positional versatility allows the M’s to use him as a counter off the bench late in games.

Trident down: Ultimately, Refsnyder becomes another in the line of journeyman free-agent signings who don’t work out.

Dominic Canzone, DH vs. RHP

2025 stats: 82 games | .300 AVG | 11 HR | 11 2B | 32 RBI | .358 OBP | .481 SLG | .840 OPS

Trident up: Two things become apparent right away — Canzone spent the offseason getting better defensively, and he becomes more consistent facing left-handed pitching to the point that he’s not automatically lifted when a lefty is on the mound.

Trident down: Canzone continues to struggle against lefties, his defense remains a concern when he’s in right field and his role becomes diminished.

Bench

Leo Rivas

2025 stats: 48 games | 2 HR | 2 2B | 9 RBI | .387 OBP | .333 SLG | .721 OPS

Trident up: He’s a regular late-game replacement defensively. He gets the occasional start. He more than once causes Aaron Goldsmith to scream, “Leo Rivas, what have you done!” in a good way.

Trident down: The feel-good story of Rivas doesn’t get a second chapter. While he remains a standout defensively, the bat just isn’t there from either side of the plate.

Luke Raley

2025 stats: 73 games | .202 AVG | 4 HR | 8 2B | 19 RBI | .319 OBP | .311 SLG | .631 OPS

Trident up: Raley becomes the ultimate platoon option and is so versatile he’s able to provide days off for all three outfielders and can spell Naylor on occasion at first base.

Trident down: Asked to be a platoon player doesn’t work for Raley. His bat struggles and injuries crop up yet again.

Mitch Garver

2025 stats: 87 games | .209 AVG | 9 HR | 30 RBI | .297 OBP | .343 SLG | .639 OPS

Trident up: With lesser expectations, Garver ends up replicating his role from last season as a capable backup when Raleigh needs a break and adds a little pop off the bench.

Trident down: Garver can’t hang, and the M’s are obligated to spend resources to go find another backup-catching option.

Starting rotation

Logan Gilbert, RHP

2025 stats: 25 GS | 131 IP | 6-6 | 173 K | 31 BB | 3.44 ERA | 1.031 WHIP

Trident up: The arm problems from last season are forgotten. The splitter is in the conversation for the best pitch in baseball. Gilbert is in such a good mood he even considers letting Uncle Cal babysit his young son.

Trident down: The flexor issues from last season reemerge to the point Gilbert has to abandon throwing that dastardly splitter. Too much of his season is spent sidelined or in recovery. He reluctantly let’s Uncle Cal babysit. It doesn’t go well.

Bryan Woo, RHP

2025 stats: 30 GS | 186 2/3 IP | 15-7 | 198 K | 36 BB | 2.94 ERA | 0.927 WHIP

Trident up: Last season wasn’t a fluke. Woo is in the AL Cy Young conversation all season. The high fastball continues to blaze past hitters, and he shows no lingering effects from the pec strain late last season. The Mariners finally listen to suggestions and invite Ric Flair to a Bryan “Woooooooo” night in September.

Trident down: Woo can’t quite replicate his consistency from last year. The pec issue does linger. The season is a bit rockier, and there’s very little award conversation this time around.

George Kirby, RHP

2025 stats: 23 GS | 126 IP | 10-8 | 137 K | 29 BB | 4.21 ERA | 1.190 WHIP

Trident up: There is no Furious George this season. He continues to mature. He continues to throw strikes. He masters the automated ball strike system. For all the talent on Seattle’s staff, it’s Kirby leading the Cy Young talk and on the mound for Game 1 of the playoffs.

Trident down: Furious George comes to hate the automated ball strike system because he thinks every pitch is a strike. It gets so bad, Raleigh threatens Kirby to stop patting the top of his head and wasting the team’s challenges.

Bryce Miller, RHP

2025 stats: 18 GS | 90 1/3 IP | 4-6 | 74 K | 34 BB | 5.68 ERA | 1.406 WHIP

Trident up: Everyone’s favorite Texan shakes off a balky oblique in spring training and the elbow from last year and is a workhorse. He makes 30 starts, has a sub-4 ERA and throws so many different pitches Statcast can’t track them all.

Trident down: Bone spurs were deemed the root cause of Miller’s elbow problem last year and this time a sore oblique in spring training becomes a lingering issue that won’t go away. Miller has a slow start to the season because of the oblique and never fully gets himself going.

Luis Castillo, RHP

2025 stats: 32 GS | 180 2/3 IP | 11-8 | 162 K | 46 BB | 3.54 ERA | 1.185 WHIP

Trident up: The emergence of others has shifted Castillo’s position in the starting rotation. But that doesn’t impact his consistency. For the fourth straight season he makes at least 30 starts and has a sub-3.70 ERA.

Trident down: Castillo starts to show his age. The fastball velocity is down. The changeup isn’t as sharp. He becomes the fifth starter in the rotation and plans start to move him in the offseason.

Emerson Hancock, RHP

2025 stats: 22 G | 16 GS | 90 IP | 4-5 | 64 K | 31 BB | 4.90 ERA | 1.378 WHIP

Trident up: With Miller slowed to start the season, Hancock takes another step in his development as a starter. He cuts down on his walks and is better at finishing off innings. He stays on the roster all season as a mix of spot starter and long reliever.

Trident down: For the second straight season, Hancock struggles starting the season in the rotation. The walks remain a problem. He gives up too many big innings. He ends up back on the I-5 shuttle between Tacoma and Seattle.

Bullpen

Gabe Speier, LHP

2025 stats: 62 IP | 4-3 | 82 K | 11 BB | 2.61 ERA | 0.871 WHIP

Trident up: The lefty specialist has some help this year, making Speier better against anyone he faces, right-handed or left-handed. His role is enhanced and his value grows exponentially.

Trident down: Despite having another lefty in the bullpen to take some of the load, the wear of use from last season takes a toll on Speier and he’s just not as effective in 2026.

Jose A. Ferrer, LHP

2025 stats (with WAS): 76 1/3 IP | 4-4 | 11 S | 71 K | 16 BB | 4.48 ERA | 1.271 WHIP

Trident up: There is a reason the M’s were willing to part with Harry Ford. Ferrer is electric out of the bullpen. And thanks to Seattle’s pitching coaches, he becomes much more effective against right-handed hitters.

Trident down: While Ford is thriving in Washington, Ferrer is underperforming in Seattle. He’s decent against lefties but still struggles to shut down righties.

Cooper Criswell, RHP

2025 stats (with BOS): 7 G | 1-0 | 9 K | 5 BB | 3.57 ERA

Trident up: Criswell doesn’t pitch much, which ends up being a good thing for the Mariners. As the primary long reliever out of the bullpen, Criswell is only used sparingly and the M’s have to force him in at times to get work because the starters are pitching so well.

Trident down: Criswell pitches a lot, which means something has gone wrong. Either there are injuries with the starting staff or they are struggling to get beyond four innings, thus Criswell is getting called upon with concerning regularity.

Andrés Muñoz, RHP

2025 stats: 62 1/3 IP | 3-3 | 38 S | 83 K | 28 BB | 1.73 ERA | 1.027 WHIP

Trident up: He’s the best closer in the American League. His slider is the best pitch in baseball. He unleashes the changeup more after using it sparingly last season. It’s a glorious season for Muñoz, capped by his cat Matilda getting her own bobblehead night as a feline-rescue fundraiser.

Trident down: It’s a trying season for Muñoz. The slider flattens. The changeup is never used. He’s tipping pitches again. The brief periods he’s struggled in the past become longer. Matilda does still get her bobblehead night.

Matt Brash, RHP

2025 stats: 47 1/3 IP | 1-3 | 4 S | 58 K | 18 BB | 2.47 ERA | 1.246 WHIP

Trident up: If last year didn’t prove it, Brash is fully back from arm surgery. In the hierarchy of right-handed relievers in the AL, Brash and Muñoz are neck-and-neck for their importance and effectiveness.

Trident down: Whatever the reason, the slider just isn’t as good, making Brash less effective. He loses his role as the primary setup man in the bullpen, throwing others into unexpected positions.

Eduard Bazardo, RHP

2025 stats: 78 2/3 IP | 5-0 | 82 K | 27 BB | 2.52 ERA | 1.017 WHIP

Trident up: The most painful misplaced fastball of his career doesn’t come to define Bazardo. He rebounds from the homer allowed in Game 7 of the ALCS and reclaims his role as a key pivot option in the bullpen as a bridge to the late-inning arms.

Trident down: Bazardo can’t shake the image of George Springer trotting around the bases. The fallout from the homer lingers, and Bazardo loses his effectiveness and eventually his role.

Carlos Vargas, RHP

2025 stats: 77 IP | 5-5 | 54 K | 23 BB | 3.97 ERA | 1.351 WHIP

Trident up: The concern with Vargas has always been about control. The stuff is there. This year, so is the control. He becomes another pivot option that can be counted on in the late innings.

Trident down: The chatter that Vargas is the toughest pitcher on the entire staff to catch proves true. His control is all over the place and so is his usage with most of his mound time limited to obvious blowouts.