After NBA expansion vote, what’s next for potential return to Seattle?

NEW YORK — As Adam Silver recalled the events, it was one of the first meetings he took after becoming NBA commissioner in 2014.

His visitor that day was a minority owner of the Boston Celtics. But he wasn’t in town to talk about arguably the most storied franchise in NBA history, of which he held a small share.

There was another topic on the mind of David Bonderman as he visited with Silver.

“[Bonderman] came to see me to tell me that he was very interested in expansion team in Seattle,” Silver recalled. “I know it was in the first week of February 2014, and we used to joke about that every time. I miss him.”

Bonderman eventually abandoned pestering Silver about bringing an expansion NBA team to Seattle because his attention moved elsewhere. A different league, the NHL, was more eager to expand and was ready to jump at the chance of getting into the Seattle market.

Several years after that 2014 meeting, and with the reconstruction of KeyArena into Climate Pledge Arena agreed upon and underway, the Kraken were born with Bonderman as their majority owner.

But now it’s 2026. And Silver retold that story of his relationship with Bonderman on Wednesday following an NBA Board of Governors meeting in which the league’s owners issued a green light for robust talks to begin about potential expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas.

And it could end up being Bonderman’s daughter — Samantha Holloway, who became the Kraken’s executive chair and equal co-owner after Bonderman’s death in December 2024 — being the one to fulfill the topic her dad first broached with Silver a dozen years ago.

“He, along the way, introduced me to Samantha, who I’ve become friends with,” Silver said following the conclusion of his news conference. “Samantha and I check in with each other occasionally, but I’ve made clear to her, and she understands, that until our board made a decision that we’re ready to explore this next state of expansion there was nothing specific she and I could talk about. But we’ve just become friends over the years.”

Now that the green light has been provided by the league’s owners, Silver and Holloway can hold those talks about what it might take to return the NBA to Seattle.

Holloway’s One Roof Sports and Entertainment is so far the only publicly known group that intends to engage with the NBA on expansion. It is the leader until another group makes its intentions known.

To that point, Silver said he expects multiple bidders to emerge in each city, which would require a full vetting and examination of what group and what bid might best serve the interests of the specific cities and the league.

“There were groups that were waiting to see whether this (became) official who will be reaching out to league office or the PJT (Partners) team directly and will say, ‘I am interested,’ and they will establish a process,” Silver said. “Generally, what happens in those processes, there is sort of a first round where people express interest, demonstrate their wherewithal, make some preliminary indications of value that they say on the team, but it’s by no means an auction. It’s more just a function of saying, ‘This is what my group would look like, and we have a desire to move forward.’ I think that will happen in the next couple of months.”

One Roof will be part of that process, and whether anyone else decides to get involved in Seattle may ultimately determine how quickly the situation progresses. The more groups, the longer it will take to vet and fully examine. The more groups, the better chance the eventual expansion fee will climb in price.

And there will be questions from the league:

• What is the arena situation?

• What about a practice facility?

• What are the potential revenue streams and profitability for the franchise?

• How can a new team guarantee it won’t be a burden for a revenue-sharing league, so other team owners are willing to part with a small portion of what they are receiving in rights fees?

That last question might be the most important. The league’s media-rights agreement reached in 2024 totaled $77 billion over 11 seasons to be distributed to each franchise. This season, teams are expected to receive $152 million with $163 million next year. In 2028-29, the season an expansion team could first start playing, the expected payout is $175 million per team.

But adding one or two more franchises would take from those expected payouts. It’s worth noting that the expected expansion fee for each franchise, which is expected to be between $7 billion-$10 billion, will be split among the league’s 30 current owners.

“I think that all the 30 existing partners will be very interested in understanding what the pro forma looks like, how it is they’re going to be able to operate in a first-class manner and be profitable, or at least incentivized to continue investing in the team,” Silver said. “So all those things become relevant.”

One thing Silver wants is finality on expansion before the end of the calendar year. With multiple bidders expected in Las Vegas — plus unknowns about where a team would play there — it would seem unlikely that a thorough examination of both cities and their respective bids could be completed before the next regularly scheduled owners’ meetings in July.

It’s possible. But it seems unlikely considering all the league is dealing with at the moment, including finalizing the sale of the Portland Trail Blazers, issues with tanking, continued work on its European-branded league and the on-court action with the playoffs starting next month.

The more likely timeline could see a decision come during the regular BOG meeting in late summer/early fall before the start of the regular season. That also would avoid the congestion of potentially announcing expansion plans in the summer while the FIFA Men’s World Cup is taking place.

“My timeline, we weren’t so specific with the board, is that we need to know by the end of this calendar year what it is we’re doing,” Silver said. “It may not be that every ‘I’ is dotted, but that would be our goal this year.”