How Seattle flight prices from Sea-Tac Airport may be impacted by war
The cost of jet fuel in the United States has ballooned due to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and a resultant oil crisis. And though airfare prices have not skyrocketed yet for Seattle travelers, experts say airlines will soon be forced to raise prices to offset fuel costs.
The memo for local travelers? If you’re planning a trip, it’s probably wise to book your flights as soon as you see a good fare. But if you’re seeing high prices right now, they’re likely caused by standard demand for summer travel rather than a potential fuel shortage.
“Fares are still fluctuating day to day, which tells us airlines haven’t fully priced (impacts of the war) in,” said Jesse Neugarten, founder and CEO of Dollar Flight Club, a flight deal alert service in Seattle. He said Wednesday that domestic routes out of travel hubs like Seattle-Tacoma International Airport “may hold steadier in the short term because there is so much competition.”
Though it’s too soon to tell exactly when or how much flight prices out of Sea-Tac will rise due to the war, Neugarten said long-haul international flights will be impacted first because they use the most fuel.
Since the U.S.-led military operation launched in Iran, jet fuel prices have soared as high as $4.56 per gallon, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index. The national average was $2.08 on Dec. 31.
Some airlines have already adjusted ticket prices, or say they may do so.
Alaska Airlines, for instance, increased fares by about 10% , CEO Ben Minicucci said at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on March 17. That’s $20 added to the airline’s average fares of $200, according to Minicucci.
“We produce about a billion dollars of coupon revenue a month, so roughly $12 billion (annually) excluding loyalty, cargo and everything else,” Minicucci said at the conference. “To offset $100 million of fuel cost on a billion dollars of coupon revenue, it’s essentially (a) 10% increase in coupon revenue.”
In a message to staff on March 20, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said consumer demand for travel over the past 10 weeks remains “the strongest we’ve ever seen,” but noted it will be challenging to offset fuel prices if the cost of oil remains stubbornly high.
In an interview with Bloomberg published this week, Kirby warned that airfare prices may rise by 20% due to a fuel shortage.
“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks,” Kirby said in the March 20 statement. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.”
Reached for comment Wednesday about rising fuel and airfare prices as relates to the war with Iran, representatives for Alaska Airlines and United Airlines directed The Seattle Times to their CEOs’ messages.
Robyn Stencil, program manager of tours at Rick Steves’ Europe travel agency in Edmonds, said Wednesday that airfare prices out of Sea-Tac for this summer and fall are currently “right in line with where they’ve been last year and in prior years.”
Seeing high prices for your Memorial Day weekend vacation? Stencil attributed expensive plane tickets to the standard demand for airfare during peak travel seasons, rather than direct impact from the war.
“The trick is really to find that sweet spot of not booking your flight too close or too far from departure,” said Stencil. “Anywhere from two to three months before your departure, or looking out a little bit longer and going six or seven months out from your departure, seem to be good shoulder areas to search.”
Neugarten suggested travelers should book flights as soon as they see a good fare – and be open to moving their travel dates around.
“Staying flexible and setting alerts is still the best way to find deals in this type of market,” Neugarten said.