New El Niño forecast warns of a powerful shift amid hurricane season

El Niño is coming “soon” and it could reach “very strong” levels later this year, according to a May 14 forecast released by climate scientists from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

This and other forecasts are raising alarms globally because of the pattern’s powerful influence over the world’s weather. This includes its often dramatic impact on hurricanes, where it can suppress the number of storms that form in the Atlantic basin but boost those in the Pacific.

NOAA’s forecast said that El Niño is likely to emerge soon (with an 82% chance the next 2-3 ​months) and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27 (a 96% chance by December 2026 – February 2027).

Also, even if the strongest part of the El Niño doesn’t arrive until the end of the year, it could still be strong enough during the hurricane season (June-November) to impact the number of storms that form in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Is ⁠El Niño a hurricane killer? Not really, but it’s easy to see why it might seem that way, if you’ve been following hurricane season forecasts.

El Niño usually suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing the wind shear that tends to tear developing storms apart. ‌In the Pacific, the opposite happens, as wind shear is reduced during El Niños.

“Simply put, El Niño ​favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin,” NOAA said in an online report.

Once the season gets underway and El Niño officially starts up in a month or two, this could be good news for folks along the Gulf Coast and the East Coast, and potentially worrisome news for residents of the U.S. Southwest and Hawaii, where more hurricanes would be likely.

But for the Atlantic basin, forecasters remind folks that “it only takes one” to ⁠make it a bad hurricane season.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water ‌temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer ‌than average.

Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.

The entire natural climate cycle is ⁠officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.

El Niño events affect temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions and typically ‌have a warming effect on the global climate, the World Meteorological ‌Organization said in a recent statement. “Thus, 2024 was the hottest year on record because of the combination of the powerful 2023-2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change from greenhouse gases,” the WMO said.

According to the WMO, El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and ⁠central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

How likely is a ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ El Niño later in 2026? 

“There is ​a 2-in-3 chance of a ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ El Nino during ⁠the November 2026 ​to January 2027 season,” said Michelle L’Heureux, physical scientist and NOAA’s ENSO team lead. “Please keep in mind this is our best estimate with the information we have now, but these odds will shift in the months ahead depending on how El Niño evolves. There is still enough uncertainty that seeing a weaker outcome would not be a surprise,” she said.  

In addition, NOAA’s forecast said that “stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain ⁠impacts more likely.”

Could this be a busy year for hurricanes in Hawaii?

El Niño tends to supercharge hurricane seasons in the Pacific Ocean, which includes the central Pacific and eastern Pacific basins. However, most Pacific storms don’t hit land. In fact, according to NOAA, only about a quarter of eastern Pacific hurricanes and tropical storms ever make landfall — most curve west and stay out at ⁠sea.

And although Hawaii can be impacted by central Pacific storms, it’s very rare for storms to hit the state. On average, Hawaii gets a direct hit from a tropical cyclone about once per decade.

“The central Pacific often has busy years during El Niños, but the science just isn’t there to make specific predictions about the impacts of a single ENSO phase,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster. “Tropical impacts to the Southwest are often from moisture surges ⁠into the Gulf of California or up the West Coast.”

However, he added ‌that “the timing and amount of those is not something NOAA predicts more than 2-4 weeks out.”

What does this forecast ​mean for the US weather?

El Niño ‌doesn’t have a strong influence on summer temperatures, but historically warmer-than-normal temperatures are more likely in the Pacific Northwest, said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate ​Prediction Center.

“During the winter months, its influence becomes much stronger,” Pugh said. “The northern tier of the U.S. has an increased chance of above-normal temperatures while the Southeast and Gulf Coast would be favored to have above-normal precipitation.”