Dangerous weekend downpours and flooding possible across South and East

Drought-stricken areas of the southern and eastern United States are about to transition to a pattern of downpours through the end of May.

And while the arrival of wetter weather may be welcome news for farmers and growers, millions of people trying to enjoy the long weekend will be dodging raindrops from Dallas to Atlanta, D.C. and New York.

What’s more concerning is that some clusters of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms could produce dangerous flash flooding through this weekend, particularly in spots across the South. NOAA has flagged a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding, including in parts of several states from Texas to the Carolinas and northward to Pennsylvania.

Early Friday, flood watches covered southeastern Texas – including Austin and San Antonio – as well as parts of the Ohio Valley.

This weather shift is being fueled by a developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

Warm water there is contributing to an unusually intense jet stream that’s stretching from near Hawaii to the Deep South, with added tropical moisture from a 5,000-mile marine heat wave in the North Pacific.

Where it will rain the most

The most soaked stretch this weekend will extend from Texas to New York, where rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be common through the long weekend, which marks the unofficial start of summer.

It won’t rain constantly across most of that area, but the next downpour may never be far off. That’s not exactly “swimming pool” weather.

More profound rainfall totals – locally up to around a half-foot – could strike parts of the South, especially in the corridor from Texas to Tennessee. That’s where there’s a higher concern for flooding issues.

Here are forecasts for the general area around some cities through Monday, including a long weekend weather rating out of 10 – a subjective assessment of how pleasant the weather is expected to be, with 1 being the least pleasant and 10 being the most.

New York

Weather rating: 4 out of 10.

This weekend will be bookended with dry weather and comfortable temperatures on Friday and probably Monday, despite plenty of clouds. However, on Saturday and Sunday, the weather story will be defined by soaking rain and temperatures that are more typical of late March or early April.

D.C.

Weather rating: 3 out of 10.

The weather on Friday and Saturday looks pretty miserable (unless you’re a thirsty plant), with persistent rain, a stiff breeze and temperatures that would be normal – if it was March. Although it will warm up, some rain could continue into Sunday before a drying trend probably follows into Monday – but even Memorial Day isn’t a lock to be completely rain-free.

Charlotte

Weather rating: 3 out of 10.

There will be no shortage of showers, thunderstorms and muggy conditions in the Carolinas this weekend, including around Charlotte. The area is dealing with severe-to-extreme drought, so rain is a welcome visitor, but people coming from out of town may want to plan some indoor activities. Flooding can’t be ruled out amid the heaviest downpours.

Atlanta

Weather rating: 4 out of 10.

Flash flooding hit Atlanta on Wednesday and the upcoming humid weather pattern suggests there’s a risk for more. This long weekend will come with frequent showers and a chance for thunderstorms, some heavy. While storm activity is possible just about any time of the day or night, there may be a tendency for drier weather during the mornings.

Orlando

Weather rating: 7 out of 10.

Although there will be heavy afternoon showers and thunderstorms rumbling around, the weather across most of Florida will be better than in states to the north. In Orlando from Friday to Monday, it will be hot and humid with high temperatures around 90 degrees under skies that are a mix of sun and clouds.

Chicago

Weather rating: 8 out of 10.

The Windy City will have better weather during the long weekend than its eastern neighbors. It will get progressively warmer and sunnier through Monday, with daily high temperatures rising from the 60s to the 80s. There could be a spell or two of passing rain late Friday night and again early Sunday, but that shouldn’t spoil the weekend.

Drought outlook update

This week, NOAA released its updated seasonal drought outlook through August.

Although drought conditions are expected to improve across swaths of the East – as well as the parched Intermountain West – drought may develop across the Pacific Northwest, California and northern Plains.

This weekend’s rain may be a sign of things to come in parts of the East, as June tends to be a wetter month during developing El Niño episodes.