By 1998, Idaho Tax Users Will Pass Taxpayers

The number of Idahoans receiving state funds will surpass the number of taxpayers in 1998, a full decade sooner than projected.

That trend, outlined in a new study from Controller J.D. Williams, means even more pressure on the state budget at a time when slower economic growth is crimping onceabundant tax revenues.

When Williams’ office conducted a similar study two years ago, it projected parity between recipients of state dollars and taxpayers by 2008.

Accelerating prison populations and Medicaid caseloads are responsible for the greatest growth, he said.

Williams’ study included public school and higher-education students. He also conceded the study may have counted some people twice, such as Department of Health and Welfare clients who receive both Medicaid and food stamps. The same formula was used in his 1993 study.

From 1984 to 1994, the number of people filing Idaho income tax returns grew 31 percent to 484,000. The number of Medicaid patients jumped 194 percent to 54,534 during that time, and the prison population grew 120 percent to 2,607. Idaho’s conservative state government is not likely to raise taxes, but it could hold back public school funding to meet the rising cost of corrections and welfare, Williams said.

The pressures could intensify if the federal government reduces its share of Medicaid payments, he said.