Holiday Season’s Retail Promise May Be Slipping Away Early Strength Seems To Be Disappearing As Less Than Two Weeks Of Shopping Remain

With Christmas less than two weeks away, the nation’s retailers are running out of time to make this the stellar year that most had anticipated.

“All the arrows are pointing the right way this year and we had a good start to the holidays,” said Irwin Cohen, chairman of retail and consumer products at the accounting firm Deloitte & Touche. “But it doesn’t look like it’s coming all together.”

After a dismal season a year ago, forecasts for this Christmas pointed to better times, with consumers ready to spend thanks to a healthy economy, low interest rates and high confidence.

Early sales figures supported a rise in spending at the nation’s stores and malls, with many merchants reporting short supplies on everything from toys to clothes to appliances.

But new evidence muddles the outlook for this Christmas and raises questions about whether it will be as strong as retailers had originally hoped.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that retail sales fell 0.4 percent in November, well-below analysts’ estimates of a 0.3 increase. Sales of general merchandise, which includes department stores, were off 0.6 percent.

“Last year was the worst season in the last 20 years, and it isn’t extremely strong this year either,” said Saul Yaari, managing director at Piper Jaffray Inc.

Retailers, however, remain optimistic that consumers will still spend more this year than last, and much of the buying will come in the days immediately before Christmas.

“Consumers are procrastinators,” said N. Richard Nelson Jr., a retail analyst at Nesbitt Burns Securities Inc. “Much of the season will be made in the final week.”

Among the bright spots this Christmas is apparel, a big boon to clothing retailers which have struggled through a number of disappointing seasons. Shoppers are attracted to new and improved merchandise, including more fashionable and higher-quality products.

“Jeans, trousers, anything in polar fleece, knits, velvet, velour, chenille, all in bright colors, they’re all selling,” said Barbara Hays, vice president of marketing at Lerner New York, a division of the Limited Inc. with more than 800 stores nationwide.

Toys, too, are hot picks this Christmas, with near stampedes breaking out as shoppers race for the hard-to-find Tickle Me Elmo dolls and Nintendo 64 video game systems.

Shoppers are also buying up products for the home. Pier 1 Imports Inc. is selling lots of candles and kitchenware, while Sears, Roebuck & Co. says its Robo Grip pliers are going at a rate of 50 per minute.

“My husband’s the worst to buy for,” said Allison Zent, who headed to a Fargo, N.D., mall before work to pick up her Christmas gifts. “It’s the same every year, shirts or tools. Shirts or tools.”

On the losing end this Christmas are consumer electronics and computers, which are facing waning demand after a number of strong years.

“We’ve got the feeling the consumer has got a fix on electronics and is focusing on apparel,” said Jodie Corley, a spokeswoman for upscale retailer Neiman Marcus.

Fearful that five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas will cut into consumer spending, many merchants are promoting sales and opening earlier than usual to attract shoppers.