Travel Office Scandal Could Be End Of The Road Analysts Say First Lady Casting Shadow On Re-Election Chances

This was supposed to be the week when Hillary Rodham Clinton did her part to kick off the presidential campaign season by touring the nation to promote her new book about children and families. Instead, it has spiraled into the week in which analysts are wondering whether the first lady was involved in a scandal that could sink her husband’s chances for re-election.

While it is far from clear whether Hillary Clinton was involved in a cover-up, as Republicans have contended, there is no question that the latest controversies over the White House travel office and Whitewater have violated two cardinal rules of presidential politics. Those rules are to stay on message - such as Hillary Clinton’s association with children’s issues - and to stay off the defensive.

Instead, just as President Clinton is reaching a high point in the polls and voters are beginning to pay attention to the campaign, the news is negative. New questions are being raised about whether Hillary Clinton lied when she said she did not order the firing of workers in the White House travel office. More questions are being raised about the role played by her friend, Vincent Foster, the White House lawyer who committed suicide.

Even if the allegations amount to nothing, observers are aghast that White House aides suddenly “discovered” documents that Clinton’s spokesman had previously said did not exist, thus leaving the impression - fairly or unfairly - that the Clintons were hiding something.

That is why this week, when Hillary Clinton hoped to focus on children and families with her book, “It Takes a Village: And Other Lessons Children Can Teach Us,” the first lady is preparing to respond to allegations about an alleged cover-up.

Still, if there is one place in America that symbolizes the Clintons’ ability to bounce back from the harshest accusations, it is here in New Hampshire, where Bill Clinton was considered politically dead in 1992 after revelations about his draft record and allegations of infidelity.

But this time could be different, analysts said, if the latest revelations are followed by evidence that the president was involved in a cover-up of some kind, or if there is overwhelming information that Hillary Clinton was involved and that her husband knew about it.

“So far, nobody has been able to connect President Clinton with a cover-up. That is critical,” said Linda Fowler, professor of government at Dartmouth College. “A lot of people don’t like Hillary, particularly the Republicans don’t like her, but the Clintons … tried to make it plain that Hillary is not the president. Scandals cut differently when a president is involved.”

The danger here is that Hillary Clinton’s role has been so elevated in this administration that a full-blown scandal involving her would be more damaging than one that might involve another aide. Several White House aides have already been forced to resign because of the travel office and Whitewater. Hillary Clinton cannot be fired or “take the fall,” as other aides have done.

The key to this is that the latest allegations are not just about what the Clintons did during the travel office affair and Whitewater dealings, but instead are focused on whether they have tried to cover up their actions afterward.

Hillary Clinton - who got her start in Washington by serving as a lawyer on the House Judiciary Committee that investigated Watergate - surely knows that it is usually the cover-up that does the most lasting damage.

Ann F. Lewis, deputy manager of the Clinton presidential campaign, sees the allegations now as “politically motivated” and said they that will die just as controversies over the draft and alleged infidelity did four years ago.

“It is very much the same,” Lewis said in an interview. “This will follow a similar trajectory.”

The most recent controversy erupted when Republicans obtained White House records that Clinton aides previously said could not be found. Among the records were memos that focused a harsh light on Hillary Clinton:

A memo from former White House aide David Watkins said that Hillary Clinton in effect ordered that travel office members be fired. Senate investigators are intrigued that Watkins said that Foster was involved in the matter. Any information regarding Foster has attracted extraordinary attention because he was a friend of Hillary Clinton and later committed suicide.

Hillary Clinton has said that while she criticized the travel office, she did not order anyone fired. Lewis said that the memo was only a “draft” and that Hillary Clinton stands by her version of events.

Billing records from the Rose Law Firm, where Hillary Clinton worked, showed that she requested payment for 60 hours of work from Madison Guaranty Savings and Loan, which Republicans say is more than the first lady has acknowledged. White House officials said the amount of time is in line with Hillary Clinton’s previous statements.

With the president facing no significant opposition in the Democratic primaries, the question of whether the controversy will do real damage to the campaign may not be known until Election Day. The drip-drip-drip of allegations may eventually drown the campaign, or be dismissed as another effort by Republicans to misdirect attention away from Clinton’s accomplishment.

In any case, there is no question that Republicans will try to use the matter to highlight what they perceive as one of Clinton’s vulnerabilities: the character issue.

But the character issue is not new and did not stop Clinton from being elected four years ago. The election may well end up focusing on the economy, the Republican candidate and a possible third-party entry.

“In the long run, people aren’t finding anything about Clinton that they didn’t already know,” Fowler said. “They have known since New Hampshire … that he is an opportunist and he is expedient, and, in the end, they voted for him anyway because they didn’t like the alternative. Whether … this kind of scandal really hurts may have to do with whether people feel enthusiastic about Bob Dole or a third-party alternative.”