Dole Must Look Beyond Powell

Bob Dole’s acknowledgment that Colin Powell meant what he said about not running for office this year hasn’t ended one of Washington’s favorite topics of speculation.

But when the presumptive Republican presidential nominee called the prospect of a Powell vice-presidential candidacy very doubtful, he signaled that his search for a running mate was moving beyond the retired four-star general.

The basis for Dole’s interest in Powell was no secret: Polls showed that only he could help Dole close his gap with President Clinton.

But if not Powell, then who? The current favorite is Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a decorated war hero like Dole. But only Dole really knows.

History gives three clues: (1) Candidates pick people with whom they are comfortable; (2) the worse a candidate’s political standing, the more likely he will gamble; and (3) running mates sometimes help carry their home state but rarely any others.

Most potential choices fit four categories: Governors, Senate Friends, Young Turks and Wild Cards.

Governors: Early speculation centered on four Midwestern governors who might help carry their states - John Engler of Michigan, George Voinovich of Ohio, Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin and Jim Edgar of Illinois, along with former Govs. Carroll Campbell of South Carolina and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee.

But each has a downside. There seems little rapport between Dole and Engler, who escaped the draft by being overweight and was late in backing Dole. Voinovich is suspect among some conservatives. Edgar has had health problems. And Thompson’s state is too Democratic. The two Southerners don’t add much politically. A newer name, Pennsylvania’s Tom Ridge, like Edgar, backs abortion rights.

Senate Friends: McCain heads the list, after a seamless transition from Sen. Phil Gramm’s national chairman to top Dole adviser. Two potential problems: He was one of the Keating Five senators who helped a key savings-and-loan-scandal figure, and he would give the GOP an unwanted first: the first major-party ticket in which both candidates were divorced (so, too, would Engler).

Other senators include Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Connie Mack of Florida. Domenici has worked closely with Dole on budget issues. Thompson is a strong campaigner with an intriguing background as a part-time movie actor. And Mack is from electorally important Florida but also has had health problems.

Young Turks: To offset Dole’s 72 years, younger House conservatives are pushing Rep. John Kasich of Ohio, chairman of the House Budget Committee. Californians tout Rep. Chris Cox and state Attorney General Dan Lungren. All come from crucial states. While Kasich is good on television and has a strong image as a budget cutter, he also is divorced.

Wild Cards: If way behind, politicians, like quarterbacks, throw the long one. Walter Mondale did that in 1984 when, facing a 20-point deficit, he picked Geraldine Ferraro. The choice created instant excitement among Democrats, but Mondale still lost by 20 points.

Two possibilities - besides Powell - are Gov. Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas.

Despite the polls, Powell would have been a gamble. There is no way to measure the potential backlash against the first black on a national ticket. He never has run for office. And conservatives don’t like his positions on abortion and affirmative action.

That also is possible if Dole picks Whitman, who supports abortion rights but backed Dole’s proposed compromise. She is relatively inexperienced, with 2-1/2 years as governor. And her wealthy husband’s finances could become an issue, as they were with Ferraro’s husband.

That also is possible with Hutchison, whose husband, Ray, has a lucrative practice as a bond lawyer. Plus, the issues surrounding charges she misused the state treasurer’s office could re-emerge, despite her 1993 acquittal. And she, too, is relatively inexperienced.

Yet she is close to Dole, and her abortion position is less clear-cut than Whitman’s: She supports abortion rights but not government funding of abortions. But if Dole needs help in Texas, he is in big trouble.

Still, if he stays 15 to 20 points down with a substantial gender gap, he might decide he has nothing to lose by throwing the long one.

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