Conclaves Threaten Consensus In Bosnia Vote Pits Side Friendly To West Against Karadzic’s Fierce Allies

The violent power struggle between the Bosnian Serb president and an indicted wartime leader shifted to the ballot box Saturday, the start of a crucial two-day vote for parliament.

Western leaders hoped voters would pick lawmakers favorable to the Dayton peace plan, but with Bosnian Serb loyalties split between President Biljana Plasvic and wartime leader Radovan Karadzic, the elections were more likely to widen the growing rift between rival factions.

Plavsic controls most of the western part of Bosnian Serb territory, and Karadzic the east. The proKaradzic camp - which dominated the previous parliament - might opt for a formal split rather than to accept a loss.

At best, protracted negotiations over coalition-building were likely if neither side wins a clear majority in the 83-seat legislature. That would weaken the central government in Bosnian Serb territory, at least temporarily - and increase the behind-the-scenes power of Karadzic.

After voting in her northern stronghold of Banja Luka, Plavsic said she expected an end to the dominance now enjoyed by the proKaradzic Serb Democratic Party.

“I don’t think that one party will get an absolute majority like the SDS has had up until now,” she said.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is overseeing the vote, reported no major problems as the first day of voting drew to an end. Robert Frowick, head of the OSCE mission, said turnout was “not particularly high.”

Bosnian Serb radio said there were 1.148 million eligible voters. Since many refugees from the Bosnian war will vote from abroad, no results will be announced until about Dec. 10.

Election commission member Rajko Bojat said some Serbs who voted in September’s municipal elections could not find their names on lists Saturday, but it was not clear how widespread the problem was.

Political analysts expected four major parties to split most of the vote, with Plavsic’s party and the Socialists on one side, and the Serb Democratic Party and the nationalist Radical Party on the other.

If that occurs, the balance of power could be held by minor parties and Muslim refugees registered to vote on Serb territory. Muslims and a smaller number of Croats account for more than a fifth of the eligible voters.

In the northern Sarajevo suburb of Vogosca, scores of Muslim refugees from eastern Bosnia voted Saturday. Others gathered at the Sarajevo train station, waiting for buses to take them to polling stations in hometowns that were taken over by Serbs during the war.

Muslim refugee Dervis Mujkanovic was clearly nervous as he voted in Donji Rasavci, unable to shake memories of the time he spent in three Serb detention camps during the war.

Now living in the Muslim-Croat half of Bosnia, he said his greatest wish was to “come back to my own fireplace” in Serb-held territory.