Consumer sentiment rises
NEW YORK — Consumers’ attitudes on the economy in the run-up to the Christmas holiday made an unexpected jump as of the end of December, according to a survey released Thursday.
According to those who’d seen the subscriber-only University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for December, the index moved to a reading of 97.1 from 92.8 in November. The final read for the month was above the 95.8 expected by economists in a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires, and it was also above the 95.7 level originally reported for December.
The components that make up the Michigan index were also stronger. The current conditions index for December was 106.7, after the preliminary reading of 106.3 and November’s 104.7. The expectations index, which tries to divine where consumers believe the economy is heading, came in at 90.9 for December, from 85.2 in November. The expectations index for December had initially been reported at a 88.8 reading.
Consumer confidence measures like this are not held in tremendously high regard by Federal Reserve officials, who have long said they prefer to see real data on spending, as opposed to data seeking to understand what consumers say they’ll do. Still, confidence data such as the Michigan report are among the most current of statistics available, and recent data from the survey highlights the somewhat choppy Christmas spending season that’s been seen so far.
Chain-store sales data released earlier in the week were mixed and caused some economists to note that sales are underwhelming so far.
RBS Greenwich chief economist Stephen Stanley said “the Christmas shopping season is progressing about how we thought it might: a decent Black Friday, a troubling lull for much of December, and a furious rush at the end,” with hopes for even better spending into the final days before the holidays.
“We really will not know much about the tone of the holiday season until the end of December,” Stanley warned. But based on the December reading, there may be room for optimism.