Best teams begin battle with draft
NEW YORK – Three years ago, the Philadelphia Eagles had the best draft in the NFL and the New England Patriots did pretty well, too, getting wide receivers Deion Branch in the second round and David Givens in the seventh.
That draft helped the Patriots and Eagles get to the Super Bowl this past season, and Branch was the game’s MVP, catching 11 passes for 133 yards. Big spending on free agency doesn’t guarantee victories (ask Washington), but drafting well almost always does.
“Not that you can’t acquire players in free agency and do other things, but the foundation is the draft,” said Bill Cowher, who has coached the Pittsburgh Steelers to five AFC title games and one Super Bowl appearance in 13 seasons as their coach. His 2002 draft wasn’t bad either – his top six picks are still with him.
That’s why nearly every NFL coach and personnel executive has spent the last three months evaluating thousands of players available for next weekend’s draft. In fact, the predraft period has become a season unto itself. The annual scouting combine in Indianapolis has developed into a major media event, even though the notion that imprecise times in the 40-yard dash or a few extra lifts should determine a player’s value is widely debunked throughout the NFL.
It usually takes three years to evaluate drafts because first-round picks often fail and late picks such as Givens and Tom Brady (sixth round, 2000) often thrive, especially for New England. That makes instant evaluation of any draft almost impossible.
But three years can tell you something – such as the reason the Patriots and Eagles were in the title game last season.
Philadelphia’s first three picks in 2002 were defensive backs: Lito Sheppard (26th overall), Michael Lewis (58) and Sheldon Brown (59). Their fourth – how did he drop to 91? – was Brian Westbrook, who is one of the top all-purpose backs in the NFL.
Those players prove why instant analysis is almost useless. In the case of the Eagles, the “analysts” asked why they took three DBs when they already had three Pro Bowlers in the secondary in cornerbacks Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent and safety Brian Dawkins.
As it turns out, the ability of Sheppard and Brown allowed Philadelphia to let the aging Vincent and Taylor leave as free agents, losing big contracts to keep younger and cheaper players. In 2004, they still had three Pro Bowlers in the secondary: Dawkins, Sheppard and Lewis.
In some ways, New England operates the same way as Philadelphia: Draft well and you can let higher priced veterans go, Ty Law being the latest example.
Like many other teams, the Patriots scout everyone – as many as 4,000 players. But their draft board differs from most teams because personnel director Scott Pioli and coach Bill Belichick rate prospects on their ability to play in New England’s system, not anyone else’s. So there may be only 40 to 50 players on the final list.
The teams that draft well consistently use 40-yard dash times and other combine workouts as a guideline, but look more closely at a player’s productivity in college. Consider that Jerry Rice was “downgraded” to 16th overall in the 1985 draft because he ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash.