Arab Spring bad news for al-Qaida

LONDON – It’s been a difficult few months for al-Qaida.

Not only was its leader assassinated by U.S. forces during a raid in Pakistan, it appears that the terrorist organization and its associate movements were taken by surprise by the Arab Spring uprisings that toppled dictators in Egypt, Tunisia and, quite possibly, Libya and have unsettled the old order all across the Arab world.

Suddenly al-Qaida finds itself struggling to make itself relevant to the real problems that are confronting the Muslim world.

In truth, al-Qaida’s ideology has been losing ground in recent months as it failed to accurately reflect the mood and concerns of the region. The uprisings were a response by the public to decades of political, economic and cultural stagnation.

Those popular nonviolent uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa have managed to bring about the kind of significant change that al-Qaida has never been able to achieve, said Paul Pillar, a professor of security studies at Georgetown University and a former CIA analyst.

“It has shown that you don’t need to go to extreme violent efforts to accomplish political change,” he said.

Of course, there are other reasons why al-Qaida finds itself on its heels these days.

Not the least of these is the loss of its most prominent figure, with the assassination of Osama bin Laden in May, according to a study of the Arab Spring conducted by Juan Zarate and David Gordon of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In addition, the pair concluded that al-Qaida was hampered from playing a more prominent role in the uprisings that swept North Africa because so much of the terror group’s assets were located in the distant tribal regions of Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the group’s capacity and resources have been strained by the relentless pursuit of security services around the world.

Still, those remaining al-Qaida figures are attempting to make their movement relevant to the changing climate in the Arab world.

Abu Yahya al-Libi, a leading figure within the terrorist organization, claimed that the 9/11 attacks on the United States were what inspired the current uprising. Ayman al-Zawahiri and Anwar al-Awlaki, the Yemeni-American cleric, have also attempted to claim credit for the revolutions.

Noman Benotman, senior analyst at the Quilliam Foundation, a counterextremism think tank in London, said such statements reflect how desperate al-Qaida is not to be marginalized in the current situation.

“They have tried to defend themselves from anyone who has described them as detached from the uprisings,” he said.

But Benotman thinks al-Qaida will have a hard time finding a role for itself in the current revolutions. For example, while the terror group blames the West for all the hardships facing Muslims, the popular protests put the blame on their current political leaders’ ineffective governance and other problems, such as unemployment and corruption.

And while al-Qaida promises eternal salvation, the protesters want something more immediate: jobs and respect.

“Al-Qaida has its own well-established ideology and concepts about jihad and the establishment of an Islamic state,” Benotman continued. “Its system is based on being the vanguard of the armed struggle, of a group who knows better than ordinary people and knows more about Islam and how to enlighten the masses.

“Al-Qaida members can’t be politicians. They can’t renounce violence. Their whole narrative, their ideology and culture is about struggle and sacrifice,” he said.

Should the current revolutions fail, however, leaving a new generation of disillusioned and disenfranchised youth in the region, there’s always a chance that al-Qaida could regain its relevancy.

Pillar, the Georgetown professor, warns that if the revolutions do not deliver the changes that people want, then al-Qaida and its affiliates are likely to become the beneficiaries of popular discontent.

Paul Rogers, professor in the department of peace studies at Bradford University in Britain, agrees.

“(The militants) could argue that nonviolent mass protests do not work, therefore there has to be a more radical Islamist alternative,” he said.

Pillar does not believe that al-Qaida will disappear completely, regardless of what happens to the Arab Spring.

If you have a successful Arab awakening and a just settlement for the Palestinian cause, I think the prospects for al-Qaida are extremely low,” he said. But, he added, “There will always be dead-enders – people who are just too committed.”