Head to head Rangers vs. Cardinals
Rotation
• Cardinals. Tony La Russa joked about using ace Chris Carpenter “on two days’ rest four times” in the NLCS, but only pitched him in Game 3. That means he is on track to possibly pitch three times in the World Series, and he’s a difference-maker. His two- and three-hit shutouts on the last day of the season and in Game 5 of the NLDS vs. Philadelphia extended St. Louis’ shelf life. There’s not much to like about the other guys who will start for either team, as they have a combined 5.87 ERA in their starts this postseason. The Rangers’ C.J. Wilson, who will face Carpenter in Game 1, has allowed 16 runs and 21 hits in 15 2/3 innings in his three starts.
Bullpen
• Rangers. Thanks to displaced starters Alexi Ogando and Scott Feldman, along with newcomers Mike Adams and Michael Gonzalez, this has become a point of strength after being a weak point during the season. Closer Neftali Feliz is 4 for 4 in save chances, and the bullpen has a 2.39 ERA in the postseason, a mark that would be much lower if not for damage done against Koji Uehara. Ogando and Feldman have allowed one run on seven hits in 19 innings, striking out 21 and walking two. The Cardinals patch things together and have had to overuse lefty Marc Rzepczynski and right-handers Jason Motte, Octavio Dotel and Fernando Salas.
Hitting
• Rangers. There’s thunder up and down a lineup that was third in the majors in scoring during the regular season, ahead of everyone except the Red Sox and Yankees. Next to the six homers by Nelson Cruz in the ALCS, the most impressive thing during the playoffs has been how they’ve scored without relying on the long ball. They’re hitting .276 with runners in scoring position, getting big lifts from leadoff man Ian Kinsler and platoon left fielder David Murphy. The Cardinals have been even more opportunistic than the Rangers (.303, RISP) and are just as dangerous. First baseman Albert Pujols, third baseman David Freese and left fielder Matt Holliday (recovered from a thumb injury) are killing the ball. Pujols has walked only six times in the playoffs. Look for the Rangers to pitch around him.
Fielding
• Cardinals. Both teams have strong-armed shortstops who are fun to watch – St. Louis’ Rafael Furcal and Texas’ Elvis Andrus. Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina and Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre also excel. The difference between the teams is the Cardinals are less likely to make errors that extend innings, which was a key in beating Milwaukee.
Bench
• Cardinals. La Russa got his entire roster involved in the first two rounds, and will have an easier time with the DH rule in effect in the middle three games. Allen Craig has power and both Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot are making the most of their chances. There’s nothing wrong with Texas’ bench either. The lack of a DH means Michael Young will play first, with Mike Napoli behind the plate, in St. Louis. Mitch Moreland, who will play off the bench, homered in the 2010 World Series.
Manager
• Cardinals. La Russa has set the tone as the Cardinals have played from behind since late August, rallying to win the last spot in the N.L. playoffs and then upsetting Philadelphia and Milwaukee, with both clinching wins coming on the road. Ron Washington has managed Texas to a 15-11 record in the playoffs the last two seasons. He flies by the seat of his pants, which could confound the methodical La Russa.
Gut read
This is basically Texas’ depth vs. St. Louis’ star power, and depth usually wins. But with Pujols and Carpenter, the Cardinals have impact guys who are used to playing on this stage. Wilson’s mental toughness could be the key. Can he bounce back to match Carpenter in Game 1? Another key: Can the Cardinals’ bullpen keep protecting leads? Their pitching staff allowed the Phillies and Brewers to hit .320 with runners in scoring position. That’s a frightening stat given the length of Texas’ lineup.
• Pick: Rangers in 7.
By Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune