Tsunami readiness still shaky, experts say

LONGVIEW, Wash. – Scientists and emergency managers say they’ve learned a lot about earthquakes and tsunamis in the last year, but they fear the public remains woefully unprepared for a disaster that is certain to happen in the Northwest.

“Are we ready? No way,” Bill Steele, a member of the seismology lab at the University of Washington in Seattle, told the Longview Daily News.

Recent research indicates that major subduction earthquakes such as the 2011 temblor in Japan have shaken western Oregon and Washington once every 300 to 600 years on average. The last great Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake occurred 312 years ago in 1700, but it is difficult to know when the next one will hit.

Still, Steele said, there’s a 15 percent chance the next one will occur in 50 to 60 years.

“We know another one is coming, and we can’t be complacent,” Steele said.

More evacuation routes, wide roads and vertical tsunami shelters are needed to ensure that large numbers of people would be able to get to safety, he added.

Northwest communities have placed a priority on warning systems but not enough on evacuation facilities and caring for people once a quake hits, said Chris Goldfinger, a researcher at the Oregon State University Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport, Ore.

Public interest in emergency preparedness spiked after last year’s Japan earthquake and tsunami, but faded rapidly, emergency managers said. Getting people to spend money and time preparing for an event that seems abstract and rare is a challenge for emergency managers, said Grover Laseke, who oversees emergency management for Cowlitz County.

Families should have clearly defined plans, as well as sufficient supplies of medication, water and food, he said.

Stephanie Fritts, who oversees emergency management for Pacific County, said people shouldn’t assume they’ll be able to leave earthquake disaster zones, which could cover a swath of the region from Northern California to Vancouver, B.C.

“Overall, you’re not going to be able to drive,” Fritts said. “People ask, ‘What do I do in a worst-case scenario?’ and I say, ‘You’re gonna walk,’ and they look at me and they’re dumbfounded.”