John Blanchette: Evolution of NCAA seeding makes it unlikely another Gonzaga will emerge

You don’t hear much anymore about schools idealizing themselves as “the next Gonzaga” in the basketball universe. And that’s good.

It should be about creating an identity and not co-opting one, right?

Besides, if the NCAA Tournament bracket that comes out Sunday afternoon is going to tell us anything, it’s that the Next Gonzaga clipper has sailed.

Possibly straight into the Bermuda Triangle.

When the NCAA selection artists unveil their latest oil, Gonzaga’s many patrons will either hail the genius of seeding the Bulldogs No. 1 or pan the inelegant strokes that left their heroes as a No. 2. And give not a care to the carnage going on down bracket.

That’s where you’ll find the bulk of the 36 at-large invitees in the 68-team field, and if you can trust those who have turned bracketology into a career path – surely some college will offer a degree program soon – as few as three of those invitations will go to teams outside the Walmarts, Exxon Mobils and AT&Ts of college conferences.

That includes the five major football leagues, plus the Big East. If you want to throw the American in that company – and with old money programs like UConn and Cincinnati and Temple in there, why not? – then the middle guy at-larges could be Saint Mary’s and Dayton.

Cinderella alert: She’s getting buried alive in a pumpkin coffin.

A decade ago, six different nonpower conferences were represented in the at-large field. In 2012 and 2013, 11 at-large teams came from beyond the power structure. Last year, the committee took a U-turn and decided, “No more fun of any kind.”

Which brings up this notion: It’s a good thing the Zags did what they did when they did it.

In putting together their run of 19 straight NCAA Tournament appearances, the Bulldogs have mostly done it the not the easy way or the hard way, but the safe way: by winning the West Coast Conference’s postseason soiree. Only four of their NCAA berths came via the at-large route.

So there hasn’t been much sweating it out. Last year would have been one of those steam-room sessions – and dripping in disappointment – except the Zags found their rhythm in Las Vegas and saved themselves the stress.

But it’s altogether conceivable that this wouldn’t have been an unbroken run at all if the selection committee was doing business back in the day as it is now.

In 2003 – the Zags’ first at-large experience – they had a Ratings Percentage Index rank of 40, a strength of schedule of 92 and a 1-5 record against teams in the RPI’s Top 50.

Fast forward to 2017 and Rhode Island, a very bubblish upper midmajor, has a 40 RPI, a 51 SOS and is 2-3 against the Top 50. Only CBS’ Jerry Palm among the bracket geeks has the Rams in the field right now, as a 12 seed.

Context changes from year to year, of course, but the Gonzaga resume of 2003 would be a tough sell in 2016 or ’17. Same could be said of 2010, given the NCAA committee’s recent hard right into the establishment parking lot.

In the last decade, Gonzaga has elevated itself – in recruiting and scheduling – to be mostly above this trend. But the opportunities for programs that remain midmajor are shrinking.

Yes, yes, the committee doesn’t “see” conferences. Or so it insists. Fact is, that’s pretty much all it sees.

The expansion of the Power 5 football conferences over the years has had the side effect of increasing the number of league games in some instances – with more to come. ACC teams are due to play 20 conference games in 2019. They won’t be the last. As the big leagues look to make their schedules more attractive to their TV keepers – or to create more desirable inventory for their own in-house networks – they’ll face the temptation to add conference games.

And they’re not going to drop the purchased wins against Grambling and Coppin State. They’ll drop the Colorado States and Illinois States – or the George Masons and VCUs, both at-large 11 seeds when they made their Final Four runs.

So the chances for the mids to get a November or December win against a USC or a Virginia Tech will keep drying up, as there will simply be no incentive for power conference teams to offer them.

And more 14-loss Vanderbilts will dance in March, and more Monmouths will drag it on into the NIT or CBI.

Someone at tournament central forgot that the whole appeal of March is the Madness – the mystery guest Gon-ZOG-uh picking off Minnesota and Stanford on the first weekend. Eventually, the whole thing settles into a seeded normalcy, and no one has ever suggested the champion won by fluke. The process is just too hard.

The midmajor squeeze-out won’t make it any harder. It’s just making it duller.