E.U. agrees to open membership talks for Ukraine

BRUSSELS - The European Union announced Thursday that it had agreed to open membership talks for Ukraine, bringing Kyiv closer to a long-held goal.

Although it will still be years before Ukraine can join the European Union, the decision offers an important sign of support, as Ukraine’s progress in fighting off Russia has largely stalled, and U.S. commitment to continued funding for the war has wavered.

While 26 E.U. leaders wanted Ukraine’s candidacy to move forward, the 27th, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, had threatened to block the decision, as well as a critical $50 billion aid package, unless he gets his way - and his money.

The showdown comes at a critical moment when Ukraine’s battlefield progress has stalled and the country is also fighting to secure $60 billion from the United States, where support for the war appears to be waning.

“Hungary’s Orban seems to be emboldened by the political gridlock over further Ukraine funding in Washington and disappointment with Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” said Alissa de Carbonnel, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia program, in an email.

“E.U. leaders didn’t expect to be haggling over their big funding package for Ukraine at the eleventh hour.”

On the eve of the summit, the European Commission announced it was unlocking more than $10 billion in funds meant for Hungary that it froze over concerns about the rule of law, saying the country had now met conditions related to judicial independence. Some insist the timing is coincidence. Others see it as giving in to blackmail.

In an interview with Bloomberg News this week, Orban’s top political adviser suggested that Hungary is, in fact, negotiating - and that unblocking more money could move Hungary to change its tune on Ukraine.

Ahead of the talks, some called on E.U. leaders to hold fast in the face of Hungarian demands. “Support for Ukraine is imperative to protect Ukrainians and Europeans,” said French Member of European Parliament Valérie Hayer, in a statement. “But we must not compromise our values.”

For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher.

A delegation of senior Ukrainian officials visited Washington this week to plead with lawmakers for more funding. But they left with little to show for the effort as Senate Republicans once again blocked the proposed package of aid.

Nearly two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, with winter looming and supplies running low, aid is needed to keep Ukraine running - and fighting - in the short-term, officials said. Progress on accession is also seen as critical, both for morale and for the message it sends to Russia.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials and diplomats have been engaged in furious diplomacy as they try to shore up support in both the United States and Europe.

Ukrainian officials stress that Ukraine has worked hard to meet criteria set out by the European Commission, which in November recommended that the E.U. open accession negotiations with Ukraine, as well as Moldova.

On Thursday, Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, laid out Ukraine’s case on X, formerly Twitter, and called out Orban’s antics.

European Council decisions on Ukraine “are a piece of a much bigger puzzle,” she said. “The stakes are too high to have someone play with it.”

A positive decision from the E.U. this week would be a boost for Ukraine, but membership remains a long way off.

Joining the E.U. typically takes many years. The political and legal systems of prospective members are scrutinized and slowly brought into compliance with E.U. rules.

Several countries, including Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia, have been in membership talks for years. Turkey applied to join in 1987 and officially remains a candidate, in theory, despite the fact that its odds look extraordinarily slim.

The fact that Ukraine is still at war makes its case more complicated. In Brussels, there is broad agreement that welcoming Ukraine would send an important signal to Russia, but much division about what welcoming Ukraine and other new members would mean for the E.U.

If Ukraine joined today, it would be the E.U.’s fifth-most-populous nation and its poorest by a wide margin, shifting the group’s balance of power and disrupting its internal market. Many believe key institutions would need to be reformed before Ukraine could join.