Analysis: What will it take for the Mariners to sign Shohei Ohtani?

SEATTLE – On normal occasions, the “Twitter” mailbag will solicit questions from its numerous followers for the sporadic foray into answering questions about the Mariners, Major League Baseball and the mysteries of life.

But given the general mood and reactions now on all forms of Mariners social media, and the propensity for the same three or four questions being asked repeatedly or being bombarded with rhetorical venting remarks vaguely disguised as rhetorical questions, it seemed wise to avoid that. Besides, there is one question leading everything.

Are the Mariners going to sign Shohei Ohtani?

Let me answer this broad question with a series of more specific questions:

• Do you honestly believe they have a legitimate chance of signing him?

• Do you think they believe they have a chance of signing him?

• Would they get into a bidding war with other teams to sign him?

• What will it take for the Mariners to sign him?

• What does Ohtani even want?

Let’s work backward, starting with the last question first. Anybody that tells you they know what Ohtani is thinking or offers any details about contract demands, which organization he prefers or what factors will determine his decision is either misrepresenting their knowledge or just lying.

Perhaps the only thing we’ve learned in the past few weeks is that he and his agent, Nez Balelo, are demanding personal privacy and professional discretion during this process.

During the recent GM meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona, the universal answer – “we don’t comment on free agents” – was used by nearly every GM whose team was linked to Ohtani.

Jerry Dipoto, Mariners president of baseball operations, was asked numerous times and in various ways about Ohtani, and he atypically offered little more than that stock answer.

While it’s standard policy for most MLB executives not to comment on free agents or negotiations, ESPN’s Jeff Passan offered up some background for the unified vagueness.

“If visits between Ohtani and a team are reported publicly, it will be held against the team,” Passan wrote.

Balelo took a clandestine approach, staying at a different hotel away from the GM meetings and holding meetings with perspective teams there to avoid the media and speculation.

Apparently, the first rule of about signing Ohtani is do not talk about signing Ohtani – either publicly or privately.

The easiest way to make a phone or text conversation end awkwardly and abruptly with anyone working in the front office of those rumored teams, including the Mariners, is to ask about Ohtani. The subject is off-limits, even in generalities or hypotheticals.

Ohtani isn’t interested in talking about his situation, including what he wants or expects from an interested organization. He last spoke to the media on Aug. 9 – a month before he had elbow surgery, which was a second Tommy John surgery, per the Los Angeles Times.

His Zoom call with members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America after winning the American League Most Valuable Player award was canceled due to “technical difficulties.”

He probably won’t speak to the media until the news conference after he signs his contract, which probably is a wise decision.

People have speculated about what will determine his decision. It’s a varied list that includes the past and projected success of the organization, the location, the weather, the staff on the field and in the training room, the current roster, and the city.

Money, specifically contract size in years and total dollars, is not usually mentioned first.

Why? It doesn’t seem to be all about money for Ohtani. Really, it hasn’t been since he opted to sign with the Angels before the 2018 season.

Already a megastar in Japan with hundreds of millions in endorsements, he made the decision to transition from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB at age 23, which meant that he was subject to international signing rules and was under Angels club control contracts for six seasons before free agency. Had he waited two years to come to MLB at age 25, he would have been an international free agent and able to sign with any team for any amount of years and dollars.

But while most insiders believe his comfort level with an organization while also having the freedom to leave it with opt-out clauses will be key aspects in the decision, justified compensation for his unique skill set and past production will still matter.

Ohtani is going to get paid and paid well. Even though he won’t pitch in 2024 due to the elbow surgery, he will still likely receive the highest average annual salary per season in MLB history, moving past the $43.3 million Max Scherzer got from the Mets on a three-year deal.

The round number of $500 million or something north of it over 10-12 years has been thrown around often. It’s difficult to see Ohtani agreeing to a contract of that length without opt-outs after the fourth or fifth year. He’s seen firsthand the unproductive union between Mike Trout and the Angels that still has seven years remaining on a 12-year extension at $34.45 million per season.

Would a team offering fewer years guaranteed that included multiple opt-out clauses, player and team options, and an elevated $44 million to $50 million salary per season be more attractive?

It seems to be the needle the Mariners would have to thread: Be an attractive fit and guarantee potential freedom while still offering a high annual salary.

It brings us back to those initial questions:

Based on what the Mariners have done or not done under the current ownership group, chaired by John Stanton, it’s fair to think they have no legitimate chance of signing Ohtani.

The phrase “if everything were equal” doesn’t apply since it’s not going to be anything near equal.

The initial offers from Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Yankees, Giants and Red Sox would all expectedly be larger in terms of years committed and dollars guaranteed than the offer the Mariners would be willing to make.

So much of the speculation and predictions are based largely on the past actions and predicted thinking of organizations. The Mariners are lacking in that way.

After making the postseason for the first time in 21 years and with baseball reclaiming the city and the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners ownership gave Dipoto a mildly increased payroll budget that resulted in the free-agent signings of Tommy La Stella, Trevor Gott and AJ Pollock.

So why would an organization that’s been somewhat risk-averse in overpaying for free agent hitters suddenly invest in a record-setting salary?

Let’s be clear, they can afford it. The Mariners are a financially secure and profitable organization. Just how much money they’ve raked in over the past few seasons isn’t certain.

The projections and estimations are debatable, deriving from imperfect or vague formulas. But as former M’s President Kevin Mather often liked to boast, the organization could still draw fans to the park even when the on-field product was lacking through marketing and game experience, keeping the organization solvent.

Ohtani is also the rare free agent who generates enough interest and revenues to earn what is paid before even stepping on the field.

But getting into a bidding war for Ohtani’s services isn’t a plausible possibility. Nothing about the Mariners’ current ownership speaks to such willingness.

It’s fair for even the most optimistic Mariners fan to believe it won’t happen based on all the factors involved.

Realistically, Dipoto and his staff have to be pragmatic enough to the situation to be planning an alternative “realistic” offseason strategy that doesn’t include Ohtani. While they may hope it could happen, it’s also prudent for them to understand why it won’t and prepare alternatives accordingly.

What will be interesting is if Ohtani were to express mutual interest in the Mariners but ask for changes or upgrades to their initial offer. Surely, the ownership and Dipoto would do everything to meet them.

Passan wrote that the Mariners aren’t likely to make a massive offer commensurate to other teams. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported that the Mariners have become realistic about their situation in relation to other teams and have started planning accordingly.

Based on what we know about the Mariners, it shouldn’t be surprising or debated.

Are the Mariners signing Shohei Ohtani?

It’s probably that unsatisfactory answer you’ve known all along.