Pac-12 picks: Arizona covers at Washington State as substantial underdog while Oregon edges Washington
Only one team in the Pac-12 and five in the country have performed better against the point spread this season than Arizona.
Before the Wildcats took USC to overtime as a three-touchdown underdog, they covered a nine-point line at Mississippi State and a 19-point spread against Washington.
In six games, they have failed to cover once, as a heavy favorite at Stanford.
That 5-1 mark against the spread is second to Oregon (5-0) within the conference, according to TeamRankings.com. (UNLV, Penn State, Oklahoma and Rutgers are also undefeated.)
In the underdog role, the Wildcats are winless on the field but perfect against the spread. Will that streak continue this week? They are 8.5-point underdogs at Washington State, a matchup that carries both tactical and emotional challenges.
Washington State is averaging 44.3 points per game at home, where quarterback Cam Ward is immensely comfortable and highly efficient. The Cougars (4-1) have beaten two ranked teams on their home turf, Wisconsin and Oregon State, but are coming off a poor showing at UCLA, which confounded Ward with an unexpected defensive scheme.
The timing couldn’t be much worse for the Wildcats (3-3), who must make the trek to Pullman one week after the exhausting, emotional triple-overtime loss at USC. Yet mustering the appropriate energy is just one of three hurdles.
Their vastly improved defense must limit Washington State’s downfield passing game in much the same way it limited USC’s aerial attack.
The Wildcats also need another steady performance at quarterback, whether it comes courtesy of freshman Noah Fifita or veteran Jayden de Laura, who is recovering from an ankle injury.
De Laura spent three years at Washington State before transferring after the 2021 season. If he plays Saturday, composure will be crucial. If he sits, Fifita must replicate his stellar showing at USC.
Either way, the stakes are high for Arizona, which needs three wins in the final six games to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2017.
The Hotline is all-in with the Wildcats against the spread, at least until the line adjusts to reflect their improvement.
We aren’t nearly as convinced they can win outright this week – not after the taxing effort at USC and with the long trip to the Palouse bearing down.
To the picks …
Last week: 1-3
Season: 20-20
Five-star special: 4-2
All picks against the spread. Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)
Idle: Arizona State
Stanford at Colorado (Friday)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on ESPN
Line: Colorado -11.5 (total: 59.5)
Comment: The logistics favor Stanford, which had two weeks to prepare, while Colorado is playing on a short week after yet another down-to-the-wire affair. CU star receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter could return after a multigame absence. His presence would energize a team that might otherwise have trouble summoning the urgency needed to put Stanford away early. The Cardinal are capable of hanging around well into the fourth quarter.
Pick: Stanford
Cal at Utah
Kickoff: 12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Utah -13.5 (total: 45)
Comment: Will Cam Rising make his 2023 debut this week? Or will backup Nate Johnson again be tasked with leading Utah’s floundering offense? While intriguing, the issue feels somewhat immaterial to the outcome this week. We see no scenario in which the Bears score more than 14 or 17 points against Utah’s ferocious defense. The last rookie quarterback to win in the din of Rice-Eccles Stadium was Oregon’s Justin Herbert in 2016, and Fernando Mendoza is no Justin Herbert.
Pick: Utah
Oregon at Washington
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: Washington -3 (total: 67.5)
Comment: The most-anticipated Pac-12 game of the season thus far matches elite quarterbacks and high-powered offenses. But it will be won at the line of scrimmage, and Oregon holds the advantage. The Ducks possess more run-pass balance on offense and a sturdier defense than the Huskies. Put another way: Oregon’s yards-per-play differential is +4.06 (yards gained on offense minus yards allowed on defense) while UW’s differential is +3.74. That might not seem like much, but in a collision of this magnitude, with two fabulous teams and so much on the line, it’s telling.
Pick: Oregon
Arizona at Washington State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Washington State -8.5 (total: 58.5)
Comment: The Cougars have dominated the series at home recently, outscoring Arizona by a combined 182-53 in 2016, 2018 and 2021 matchups. This season, they were in control throughout against both Wisconsin and Oregon State. As well as Arizona’s defense has played, the Wildcats probably need 24-28 points to cover. Can they hit that mark against a stout WSU defense? Yes, so long as the penalty and turnover totals are limited.
Pick: Arizona
USC at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Line: Notre Dame -2.5 (total: 63.5)
Comment: One of the sport’s greatest rivalries has taken a secondary role this week in favor of the showdown in Seattle, in part because the Irish were hit with their second loss (at Louisville) and therefore dropped out of playoff contention. Look for Notre Dame to establish its running game early to open passing lanes for quarterback Sam Hartman, who threw three interceptions last week. If the Irish are secure with the ball, they should shorten the game, wear down USC’s defense and hope to stop Caleb Williams on a handful of fourth downs that will decide the game.
Pick: USC
UCLA at Oregon State
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Fox
Line: Oregon State -4 (total: 54.5)
Comment: While generating little attention across the conference footprint, this prime-time duel could be the best game of the weekend. If nothing else, it should be an old-school affair with two solid defenses and run-heavy offenses. Oregon State has been fabulous at home and recently dismantled Utah. How will UCLA freshman quarterback Dante Moore respond to the environment? He struggled in his only road start thus far (at Utah). The Bruins have flipped identities this season with their defense leading the way. We have wavered on the point spread but love the Under.
Pick: UCLA
Straight-up winners: Colorado, Utah, Oregon, Washington State, USC and Oregon State
Five-star special: Arizona. We’re riding the Wildcats until they offer good reason to disembark. (Of note: WSU is 3-2 against the spread.)