Derby Needs Another Hero
All gamblers relish the opportunity to bet against a favorite. And rarely has a favorite looked so vulnerable as Unbridled’s Song does in the Kentucky Derby.
The colt has been suffering from much-publicized foot problems throughout the week, and the ailment will surely compromise his chances. He is expected to be equipped with a type of footwear called a bar shoe, which can protect the injured area but can also hinder a horse’s traction. Many handicappers automatically disregard any horse wearing a bar shoe for the first time.
Unbridled’s Song’s chances were further hurt when he was assigned post position 20, putting jockey Mike Smith in an almost impossible tactical position. The favorite possesses great speed, but so do many horses inside him, so he is almost certain to be parked disastrously wide on the first turn. Unfortunately, Smith doesn’t have the option of restraining his mount when he leaves the gate, because Unbridled’s Song has already demonstrated that he doesn’t run his best that way.
It’s an impossible-looking situation. Trainer Wayne Lukas often says that the great lesson he has learned about the Derby is that “you can’t make any compromises” and still hope to win. Everything has to go right for a horse in his preparation for the race. For Unbridled’s Song, almost everything imaginable has gone wrong. No rational horseplayer could consider betting an 8-to-5 morning-line favorite under such circumstances.
Yet on Saturday I’m going to do something that contradicts all I believe in. I’m going to cheer for Unbridled’s Song to win the Derby.
As a fan, I want to see a genuinely good horse emerge as the star of this year’s Triple Crown series. I’m tired of watching (and writing about) mediocre, over-hyped Derby winners such as Thunder Gulch, Go For Gin, Lil E. Tee, etc. Unbridled’s Song has the potential to be a genuine star. He was precocious enough to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in only the third start of his career. He won the Florida Derby with a speed figure that would have been good enough to win any Kentucky Derby of the 1990s. If he can overcome all the adversity he is going to face Saturday, he can certify that he is an exceptional thoroughbred.
But I also have a more pragmatic reason to avoid taking a stand against the vulnerable favorite. There is not a good alternative. He appears five lengths superior to any horse in the field. After scrutinizing films of the prep races of the other 19 starters, I couldn’t find one with any special merit.
Nobody besides Unbridled’s Song is likely to win this race strictly on the basis of superior talent. If the favorite can’t surmount the obstacles in his path, the Derby winner is going to be a horse who benefits from a good trip.
This much seems certain, though: Anybody who upsets the favorite is likely to do it by rallying from far behind. The Derby field is loaded with fast horses, and the pace is certain to be excruciatingly fast. When the first half mile of a Derby is run in 46 seconds or thereabouts, the leaders usually collapse and the race is dominated by stretch-runners. Only a potentially superior speed horse such as Unbridled’s Song might survive such a pace.
The horse generally considered the main threat to Unbridled’s Song, the Blue Grass Stakes winner Skip Away, doesn’t have the right style; he usually lurks near the leaders. He’s also going to be compromised by his No. 17 post position.
Two of the most obvious stretch-running threats in the field are Cavonnier and Alyrob, the one-two finishers in the Santa Anita Derby. But all the leaders collapsed in that race, and Cavonnier benefited from a perfect ground-saving trip. Alyrob was more impressive, and he may be a top horse in the long run. But he has raced only five times in his career, and only once in the last three months. Derby history suggests, emphatically, that he doesn’t have enough seasoning.
Prince of Thieves, one of Lukas’ five entrants, may be poised to deliver a big effort. He showed flashes of brilliance early in his career, intermingled with some dismal efforts. When he was treated with Lasix for the first time, he finished second (despite much trouble) in the Lexington Stakes.
Prince of Thieves is worth consideration by bettors looking for a Derby long shot, and so, too, is In Contention. He came from last place to finish 1-1/2 lengths behind Unbridled’s Song in the Wood Memorial - although the winner did appear to be toying with him. And he’s consistent, with six wins and two seconds in his last eight starts. But his connections are so unfashionable - he’s based at Philadelphia Park, trained by Cynthia Reese and ridden by Tony Black - that he’ll be completely overlooked in the betting.
At 50 to 1, I’ll take a flyer on In Contention. But unless he is making a move in the stretch, I hope to see Unbridled’s Song trounce this field and establish himself as the brilliant star of his thoroughbred generation.